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Thread: Win next week and we are in?
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12-23-2013, 12:34 AM #50
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12-23-2013, 12:36 AM #51Pro Bowl Poster
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12-23-2013, 12:46 AM #52Hyperbolic curmudgeometer
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Re: Win next week and we are in?
Incorrect. If everyone loses, either the Ravens or the Steelers are in.
What you've overlooked is that if the Jets beat the Fins, they are tied with Miami at 8-8--& they would eliminate the Dolphins before they ever got out of the division. (Head to head split, division records both 3-3, next tiebreaker is not AFC record but record in games vs common opponents--and here the Jets would be 7-7 where the Dolphins would be 6-8.)
In a 3-way tie between BAL, NYJ & SD, the Ravens advance via best AFC record (6-6 vs 5-7).
However, if the Steelers beat the Browns to also finish at 8-8, they'd eliminate the Ravens before they got out of the AFCN via divisional record (4-2 vs 3-3) & in a 3-way tie with NYJ & SD they would also advance via a 6-6 AFC record.
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12-23-2013, 12:46 AM #53
Re: Win next week and we are in?
This is correct.
If the Ravens win, they make the playoffs only if either Miami or San Diego loses (or both).
If the Ravens lose, they make the playoffs only if all three of Miami, San Diego and Pittsburgh lose.
If neither of those scenarios occur, the Ravens will start planning for the 18th or so pick of the 2014 draft.
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12-23-2013, 01:35 AM #54Legendary RSR Poster
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Re: Win next week and we are in?
The real stinker this year was losing to the Browns. It would have been much better to have lost to the Lions and won against the Browns. That was what messed up the divisional record and tie breakers.
This was just a down year no matter how you look at it. I got this tidbit from the ESPN.com recap:
Joe Flacco was 0-3 passing with an interception on throws 15+ yards downfield in 1st half. This Season he has 3 TD and 8 Int on such throws after 11 TD and 2 Int last season.
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12-23-2013, 04:04 AM #55
Re: Win next week and we are in?
Then we're in because we have a better conference record than the Chargers.
1) Miami is in with a win AND a Ravens loss
2)Ravens are in with a win and a loss by either SD or Mia, but one has to lose
- Ravens win H2H against Miami and have a better conference record than the Chargers
3) Chargers are in with a win AND a loss by both teams
4) Steelers are in with a win and loss by all 3 and some other magical nonsense"The Superbowl belongs to Baltimore!" - Jim Nantz
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12-23-2013, 05:37 AM #56Pro Bowl Poster
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Re: Win next week and we are in?
My head hurts.
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12-23-2013, 07:43 AM #57Regular 1st Stringer
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Re: Win next week and we are in?
You're right. I think I corrected myself earlier, writing that the Steelers would get in if they won and everyone else lost. But I had forgot to account for the Jets finishing 8-8.
There's 4 teams left in the hunt, which means 4 games to watch next week. If we say that none of them can end in a tie, then there's 16 different scenarios, which break down like this:
1 scenario leads to the Steelers advancing
2 scenarios lead to the Chargers advancing
6 scenarios lead to the Dolphins advancing
7 scenarios lead to the Ravens advancing
UNfortunately the Dolphins' scenarios are the most likely.
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12-23-2013, 08:59 AM #58Veteran Poster
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12-23-2013, 09:38 AM #59Hyperbolic curmudgeometer
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Re: Win next week and we are in?
Really? Let's run some numbers:
The Bolts have beaten 4 of the 5 playoff-bound teams they've played (DEN, KC, CIN, IND, and either PHA or DAL). That seems pretty "special" to me.
The Fins are 3-3 against playoff-bound teams (NE 1-1, CIN 1-0, IND 1-0, NO 0-1, CAR 0-1) & also beat SD. Not quite as "special" but nothing to sniff at.
Even the Yinzers have an OK record vs division winners (wins over CIN, GB, losses to CIN, NE, CHI)
Meanwhile who have the Ravens beaten? PGH, CIN, CLE, DET, MIA, NYJ, HOU, MIN--only 2 teams with a winning record. Two of what looked like "quality" wins at the time were to teams in freefall (DET, HOU). They are 1-3 vs playoff bound teams (CIN. NE, CHI/GB, DEN) & two of those losses were humiliations.
Or you could look at the current strength of victory numbers:- MIA = 66
- SD = 52
- PGH = 49.5 (with one less win)
- BAL = 45
An objective observer could argue that of the 4 teams still "in the hunt" for the #6 seed, Poe's Crows are the least deserving of it, by a significant margin.
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12-23-2013, 09:54 AM #60Veteran Poster
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