Win next week and we are in?

[LukeDaniel]

No. If we win and the Dolphins lose, we are in no matter what. If the Dolphins win, we would need help from KC.

Yes, Silly me. I guess my point was that if both teams win, the Chargers will be officially eliminated and have probably a little less motivation.

[GaTechRavens]

Deserve's got nothing to do with it.

BS

Besides, who cares if we "deserve" to make the playoffs? Give me an "undeserved" playoff berth any day of the week.

[Hammerhead]

Yes, Silly me. I guess my point was that if both teams win, the Chargers will be officially eliminated and have probably a little less motivation.

Exactly. If we win, the Chargers are out no matter what. They could only put the Dolphins in by winning.

[lobachevsky]

If everyone loses Dolphins are in.

Incorrect. If everyone loses, either the Ravens or the Steelers are in.

What you've overlooked is that if the Jets beat the Fins, they are tied with Miami at 8-8--& they would eliminate the Dolphins before they ever got out of the division. (Head to head split, division records both 3-3, next tiebreaker is not AFC record but record in games vs common opponents--and here the Jets would be 7-7 where the Dolphins would be 6-8.)

In a 3-way tie between BAL, NYJ & SD, the Ravens advance via best AFC record (6-6 vs 5-7).

However, if the Steelers beat the Browns to also finish at 8-8, they'd eliminate the Ravens before they got out of the AFCN via divisional record (4-2 vs 3-3) & in a 3-way tie with NYJ & SD they would also advance via a 6-6 AFC record.

[alien bird]

Next week, cheer for the Ravens, Jets, Chiefs and Browns. If we win, we need one of the Jets or Chiefs to win. If we lose, we need Jets, Chiefs and Browns to win.

This is correct.

If the Ravens win, they make the playoffs only if either Miami or San Diego loses (or both).
If the Ravens lose, they make the playoffs only if all three of Miami, San Diego and Pittsburgh lose.

If neither of those scenarios occur, the Ravens will start planning for the 18th or so pick of the 2014 draft.

[Uli2001]

The real stinker this year was losing to the Browns. It would have been much better to have lost to the Lions and won against the Browns. That was what messed up the divisional record and tie breakers.

This was just a down year no matter how you look at it. I got this tidbit from the ESPN.com recap:

Joe Flacco was 0-3 passing with an interception on throws 15+ yards downfield in 1st half. This Season he has 3 TD and 8 Int on such throws after 11 TD and 2 Int last season.

This vanilla offense the Ravens run needs Flacco to be accurate on the deep ball, which is actually his strength. Except this year. For whatever reason (it was probably bad protection by the O line), he couldn't replicate it this year.

[Greatness]

So if we win and either MIA or SD lose we are in?

This is too confusing... what if we win MIA loses and SD wins?

Its not like we were going to go to make a run, we might have been able to beat Indy or CIN but would likely be done the following week.

I just want the good draft pick and wanted it since we were 4-6

Then we're in because we have a better conference record than the Chargers.

1) Miami is in with a win AND a Ravens loss

2)Ravens are in with a win and a loss by either SD or Mia, but one has to lose
- Ravens win H2H against Miami and have a better conference record than the Chargers

3) Chargers are in with a win AND a loss by both teams

4) Steelers are in with a win and loss by all 3 and some other magical nonsense

[Ravenblue]

My head hurts.

[CopRaven]

Incorrect. If everyone loses, either the Ravens or the Steelers are in.

What you've overlooked is that if the Jets beat the Fins, they are tied with Miami at 8-8--& they would eliminate the Dolphins before they ever got out of the division. (Head to head split, division records both 3-3, next tiebreaker is not AFC record but record in games vs common opponents--and here the Jets would be 7-7 where the Dolphins would be 6-8.)

In a 3-way tie between BAL, NYJ & SD, the Ravens advance via best AFC record (6-6 vs 5-7).

However, if the Steelers beat the Browns to also finish at 8-8, they'd eliminate the Ravens before they got out of the AFCN via divisional record (4-2 vs 3-3) & in a 3-way tie with NYJ & SD they would also advance via a 6-6 AFC record.

You're right. I think I corrected myself earlier, writing that the Steelers would get in if they won and everyone else lost. But I had forgot to account for the Jets finishing 8-8.

There's 4 teams left in the hunt, which means 4 games to watch next week. If we say that none of them can end in a tie, then there's 16 different scenarios, which break down like this:

1 scenario leads to the Steelers advancing
2 scenarios lead to the Chargers advancing
6 scenarios lead to the Dolphins advancing
7 scenarios lead to the Ravens advancing

UNfortunately the Dolphins' scenarios are the most likely.

[JohnBKistler]

Besides, who cares if we "deserve" to make the playoffs? Give me an "undeserved" playoff berth any day of the week.

:word

This. It is not like any of the other teams vying for the #6 seed have done anything particularly special, too.

[lobachevsky]

It is not like any of the other teams vying for the #6 seed have done anything particularly special, too.

Really? Let's run some numbers:

The Bolts have beaten 4 of the 5 playoff-bound teams they've played (DEN, KC, CIN, IND, and either PHA or DAL). That seems pretty "special" to me.

The Fins are 3-3 against playoff-bound teams (NE 1-1, CIN 1-0, IND 1-0, NO 0-1, CAR 0-1) & also beat SD. Not quite as "special" but nothing to sniff at.

Even the Yinzers have an OK record vs division winners (wins over CIN, GB, losses to CIN, NE, CHI)

Meanwhile who have the Ravens beaten? PGH, CIN, CLE, DET, MIA, NYJ, HOU, MIN--only 2 teams with a winning record. Two of what looked like "quality" wins at the time were to teams in freefall (DET, HOU). They are 1-3 vs playoff bound teams (CIN. NE, CHI/GB, DEN) & two of those losses were humiliations.

Or you could look at the current strength of victory numbers:

• MIA = 66
• SD = 52
• PGH = 49.5 (with one less win)
• BAL = 45

An objective observer could argue that of the 4 teams still "in the hunt" for the #6 seed, Poe's Crows are the least deserving of it, by a significant margin.

[JohnBKistler]

Really? Let's run some numbers:

An objective observer could argue that of the 4 teams still "in the hunt" for the #6 seed, Poe's Crows are the least deserving of it, by a significant margin.

I guess I am not that objective then. Makes sense, because if come Sunday night if the Ravens are in the tournament, I won't think twice about. Actually, I will feel pretty damn good.

Your mileage may vary.