66/1 to win the SuperBowl. Thoughts?

**londonraven** · 12-13-2013, 03:46 PM

66/1 is awfully good considering our we are usually good in December.

Just wondered about ppls opinions on this?

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-...perbowl/winner

**saintmatthew** · 12-13-2013, 03:58 PM

So you're saying there's a chance! (in my best Lloyd voice)

**NCRAVEN** · 12-13-2013, 04:00 PM

Considering we don't ave playoff spot locked up, those odds aren't too bad.

**somedumbguy** · 12-13-2013, 04:05 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

Considering we don't ave playoff spot locked up, those odds aren't too bad.

Its better than the Redskins.

**lobachevsky** · 12-13-2013, 04:46 PM

Overoptimistic IMHO. Run the numbers: If a team has a 50-50 chance of winning any one game, the odds against winning 6 in a row are 62-1 and 7 in a row, 122-1. Now add in the fact that each of the teams they have to beat has at least as good a record as they do, is leading its division, will have won its division, &/or will have defeated at least one team that won its division in a previous knockout round.

100-1 seems more like it to me. At 200-1 I'd be sorely tempted to invest $50 or so. But I wouldn't touch these odds with a 10' pole.

**NCRAVEN** · 12-13-2013, 05:17 PM

Originally Posted by lobachevsky

Overoptimistic IMHO. Run the numbers: If a team has a 50-50 chance of winning any one game, the odds against winning 6 in a row are 62-1 and 7 in a row, 122-1. Now add in the fact that each of the teams they have to beat has at least as good a record as they do, is leading its division, will have won its division, &/or will have defeated at least one team that won its division in a previous knockout round.

100-1 seems more like it to me. At 200-1 I'd be sorely tempted to invest $50 or so. But I wouldn't touch these odds with a 10' pole.

You're strictly doing odds though. The people setting those odds are taking into account, talent, coaching, experience, looking at matchups etc. etc.

They're also trying to set the odds at something they think people can/will bet on, not necessarily ones they think are most realistic.

**BPF2** · 12-13-2013, 05:17 PM

Originally Posted by lobachevsky

Overoptimistic IMHO. Run the numbers: If a team has a 50-50 chance of winning any one game, the odds against winning 6 in a row are 62-1 and 7 in a row, 122-1. Now add in the fact that each of the teams they have to beat has at least as good a record as they do, is leading its division, will have won its division, &/or will have defeated at least one team that won its division in a previous knockout round.

100-1 seems more like it to me. At 200-1 I'd be sorely tempted to invest $50 or so. But I wouldn't touch these odds with a 10' pole.

Not to mention that it's most likely every game will be on the road and the second game would be a team coming off a bye. Despite what we did last year, those odds favor the home team.

**lobachevsky** · 12-13-2013, 05:32 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

You're strictly doing odds though. The people setting those odds are taking into account, talent, coaching, experience, looking at matchups etc. etc.

No, they're not. Strictly a business proposition--see below.

They're also trying to set the odds at something they think people can/will bet on, not necessarily ones they think are most realistic.

They're setting the odds in a way that will make them money no matter what the outcome is. Period.

My 50-50 computation is just a zeroth-order approximation (sometimes known as a SWAG or "scientific wild-arsed guess"). IMHO to believe that the Ravens, based on their performance this season, have better than an even chance of winning any of those games given what we know & what exists at this moment is wishful thinking at its finest. (In fact I would estimate their chances in any of those games to no better than 45%, which works out to odds of 266-1.)

But feel free to enter your own estimates, taking into account all those factors. If we assume they're 60-40 to win each of their 7 remaining games, then the odds work out to 34-1; if 70-30, the odds improve to about 11-1. You takes your choice & you pays your money...

**TheRockDoctor** · 12-13-2013, 05:45 PM

Originally Posted by londonraven

66/1 is awfully good considering our we are usually good in December.

Just wondered about ppls opinions on this?]

Sorry to be so snarky, but I think that it really doesn't matter. Super Bowl odds are, in my opinion, even more worthless than power rankings.

**PurpleApocalypse37** · 12-13-2013, 05:45 PM

Originally Posted by lobachevsky

Overoptimistic IMHO. Run the numbers: If a team has a 50-50 chance of winning any one game, the odds against winning 6 in a row are 62-1 and 7 in a row, 122-1. Now add in the fact that each of the teams they have to beat has at least as good a record as they do, is leading its division, will have won its division, &/or will have defeated at least one team that won its division in a previous knockout round.

100-1 seems more like it to me. At 200-1 I'd be sorely tempted to invest $50 or so. But I wouldn't touch these odds with a 10' pole.

Are you being facetious? Because what you just said seems like the sort of probability-calculation a 7th grader would use after the pre-algebra probability lesson.

Whether or not Baltimore is up to the challenge does not resemble flipping a coin seven times hoping to hell for tails each time.

With each hypothetical win the Ravens fortify themselves as THAT much better of a team. If the Ravens make it to the Super Bowl after winning nine straight must-win games, that is a very GOOD thing for their chances to win the Super Bowl. Your bizarre analysis suggests it would instead be a near statistical impossibility for mystical reasons.

If the Ravens win out the regular season, they enter the playoffs matching the profile and projectory of the last three Super Bowl winners.

Also none of the other playoff teams have quarterbacks that've thrown 18 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in the playoffs the last three years.

That certainly tips the scales in the Ravens favor.

**Haloti92** · 12-13-2013, 05:52 PM

Interesting chart here, though I haven't read how they set-up the simulation assumptions/odds. You can hover your pointer over the percentage (to make playoffs) and see what record over the next three games led to the result.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html

I think 66-to-1 is about "fair" if you consider the casual fans might throw money on the teams they know/remember, and we just won it.

In terms of Loba's 50/50 rough estimate, I think it works better for the last 4 games (i.e. the playoffs), but not so much for the next 3 games. Mainly because we don't need to win three in a row (the 7 in a row example), nor is winning 2 of 3 quite as bad as 2 in a row (37.5% to 25%). And of course there is an above-zero chance we can get in at 1-2 over our next 3.

The link above shows our playoff chances at 34.7%, and I think that is about right. After that point I think the .5*.5*.5*.5 might be a decent metric since we travel well and have a "clutch" QB/team (though obviously a bit overly-optimistic considering the competition and locations).

So let's say 34.7% to make playoffs. 46% to win first playoff game, 45% to win 2nd playoff game, 44% to win 3rd playoff game and 49% to win SB.

.347*.46*.45*.44*.49 = .015486 ~ 64 to 1 odds

The above link though has our SB winning odds at like 288 to 1, lol. So obviously, they are using way, way, way lower odds of winning playoff games (assuming we make the playoffs) than 44-49%. Basically giving us a 33% chance, average, for each playoff game.

**NCRAVEN** · 12-13-2013, 07:01 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

You're strictly doing odds though. The people setting those odds are taking into account, talent, coaching, experience, looking at matchups etc. etc.

They're also trying to set the odds at something they think people can/will bet on, not necessarily ones they think are most realistic.

Originally Posted by lobachevsky

No, they're not. Strictly a business proposition--see below.They're setting the odds in a way that will make them money no matter what the outcome is. Period.

Exactly what I'm saying. Based on talent, matchups, coaching etc. They are setting the odds that people will bet on - same with other teams - so no matter what they make money.