Fourth-quarter defense

**The Excellector** · 11-20-2013, 10:01 AM

Originally Posted by Terpsfan82

There are problems all around, but the offense needs to start pulling their weight. It's no secret that I'm not a fan of Pees, because he has turned our defense into one that is unrecognizable. But considering that the offense has had considerably less turnover compared to the defense, I don't think it unreasonable to expect more out of them. 20 points per game is not getting it done.

They have a new #2 WR, TE and left side of the offensive line. Less, yes, but considerably less?

**Brien Jackson** · 11-20-2013, 10:09 AM

Originally Posted by The Excellector

They have a new #2 WR, TE and left side of the offensive line. Less, yes, but considerably less?

I guess that depends on how you weight for injuries. Personally, I think they're really missing Pitta and that Yanda and KO have both been hampered by injuries as well, but past that I don't think there's anything they shouldn't be able to overcome with good coaching. They just haven't gotten that on the offensive side of the ball, IMO.

**wickedsolo** · 11-20-2013, 10:40 AM

Originally Posted by Ravenswintitle

No defense is going to hold the other team scoreless, that's unrealistic. To hold them to 3 or 4 field goals and one TD should be enough to win the game. Not to mention the Ravens had over 5 more minutes of offensive possession than Chicago. Yet they couldn't score more than 3 points (for the Ravens) after halftime. Worse yet they give the opponent scores with the continued turnovers.

It's the offense by a mile that's killing the teams' chances IMO

One thing that I will say I would like to see the defense do is generate more turnovers.

I'm not entirely sure what the offense would do with those turnovers, but things like that can be huge momentum swings. The offense looked a lot different after Flacco threw that pick-6.

**pslholder96** · 11-20-2013, 10:47 AM

Originally Posted by Ravenswintitle

No defense is going to hold the other team scoreless, that's unrealistic. To hold them to 3 or 4 field goals and one TD should be enough to win the game. Not to mention the Ravens had over 5 more minutes of offensive possession than Chicago. Yet they couldn't score more than 3 points (for the Ravens) after halftime. Worse yet they give the opponent scores with the continued turnovers.

It's the offense by a mile that's killing the teams' chances IMO

This!!!!!!

**Terpsfan82** · 11-20-2013, 11:40 AM

Originally Posted by The Excellector

They have a new #2 WR, TE and left side of the offensive line. Less, yes, but considerably less?

I meant going into this season. Their problems didn't start with the injuries.

**JStruds** · 11-20-2013, 01:13 PM

Originally Posted by wickedsolo

One thing that I will say I would like to see the defense do is generate more turnovers.

I'm not entirely sure what the offense would do with those turnovers, but things like that can be huge momentum swings. The offense looked a lot different after Flacco threw that pick-6.

I'd guess that at least 4-5 times this year including (IIRC) twice against GB and once in the Bears game, they forced a fumble but couldn't come up with the ball. Any one of those may have changed the game's outcome.

**lobachevsky** · 11-20-2013, 02:12 PM

Originally Posted by wickedsolo

One thing that I will say I would like to see the defense do is generate more turnovers.

I'm not entirely sure what the offense would do with those turnovers, but things like that can be huge momentum swings. The offense looked a lot different after Flacco threw that pick-6.

Interestingly enough, if you believe the ESPN giveaway/takeaway stats, the Ravens aren't even the worst in the division at -5. In fact all the teams in the AFCN are underwater: CIN -2, CLE -3, BAL -5, PGH -8.

Another interesting fact is that of the remaining opponents, only one is above water: NYJ at -11 (!), PGH at -8, MIN at -8, DET at -2, NE at +7, CIN at -2. The good news is that this season these teams are on the average almost as prone to turnovers as the Ravens (-24/6 = -4). The bad news is that without turnovers, they are probably better teams than their W/L record shows--& can be expected to outperform that record when playing a Ravens team that sometimes seems to its fans as if it can't buy a turnover in a pastry shop. (You'd have to drill down to the level of individual games to see if there's a real correlation between W/L & turnover differential, and to see which if any are improving or worsening in that respect.)

**wickedsolo** · 11-20-2013, 02:23 PM

Originally Posted by lobachevsky

Interestingly enough, if you believe the ESPN giveaway/takeaway stats, the Ravens aren't even the worst in the division at -5. In fact all the teams in the AFCN are underwater: CIN -2, CLE -3, BAL -5, PGH -8.

Another interesting fact is that of the remaining opponents, only one is above water: NYJ at -11 (!), PGH at -8, MIN at -8, DET at -2, NE at +7, CIN at -2. The good news is that this season these teams are on the average almost as prone to turnovers as the Ravens (-24/6 = -4). The bad news is that without turnovers, they are probably better teams than their W/L record shows--& can be expected to outperform that record when playing a Ravens team that sometimes seems to its fans as if it can't buy a turnover in a pastry shop. (You'd have to drill down to the level of individual games to see if there's a real correlation between W/L & turnover differential, and to see which if any are improving or worsening in that respect.)

Good post loba.

I wonder why the AFC is having such a tough time this year with turn overs?

**Ravenswintitle** · 11-20-2013, 02:24 PM

Originally Posted by wickedsolo

Good post loba.

I wonder why the AFC is having such a tough time this year with turn overs?

All four teams have QBs who are throwing picks like there's no tomorrow

**wickedsolo** · 11-20-2013, 02:26 PM

Originally Posted by Ravenswintitle

All four teams have QBs who are throwing picks like there's no tomorrow

I can kind of understand the turnovers by Roethlisberger and Flacco.

Andy Dalton has no excuse whatsoever. He's got a top 3 receiver and REALLY good supporting case, a good running game and a hell of an offensive line.

**redmike34** · 11-20-2013, 02:32 PM

Originally Posted by lobachevsky

Interestingly enough, if you believe the ESPN giveaway/takeaway stats, the Ravens aren't even the worst in the division at -5. In fact all the teams in the AFCN are underwater: CIN -2, CLE -3, BAL -5, PGH -8.

Another interesting fact is that of the remaining opponents, only one is above water: NYJ at -11 (!), PGH at -8, MIN at -8, DET at -2, NE at +7, CIN at -2. The good news is that this season these teams are on the average almost as prone to turnovers as the Ravens (-24/6 = -4). The bad news is that without turnovers, they are probably better teams than their W/L record shows--& can be expected to outperform that record when playing a Ravens team that sometimes seems to its fans as if it can't buy a turnover in a pastry shop. (You'd have to drill down to the level of individual games to see if there's a real correlation between W/L & turnover differential, and to see which if any are improving or worsening in that respect.)

I'm currently a grad school student in operations research, and one of the classes I had on data analysis included a term-long project that you had to do on sports statistics of some kind. I took a bunch of different statistics from the 2012 NFL season, plugged them into various regression models in R, and did the standard variable eliminations through anova-type stuff for my project with winning %age as the output variable. Bottom line... I'm not by any means a data analysis guru (in fact, as I look back at the R-code I used for the project I couldn't even intelligently tell you what I was trying to do with most of it), but the models always threw out giveaways/takeaways/turnover differential in terms of having any effect on team winning percentage.

In fact, not a lot of the variables (or combinations thereof, up to and including two-factor interactions) did what I'd call a great job of predicting winning percentage. But IIRC, anything to do with turnovers was always one of the first regression variables to get tossed. Looking at the current 2013 stats, I guess it's easy to understand why. Dallas, a .500 team, has the same turnover differential as Seattle, a .91 team, for example...

**Ravens44** · 11-20-2013, 05:39 PM

Ok, I will just throw this out there.

2012:
Offense scored 24.875 points per game.
Defense gave up 21.5 points per game.

2013:
Offense scoring 20.8 points per game.
Defense giving up 21.2 points per game.

And just remember that's with the Denver game included in there.
I know that points wise, the defense is hanging tough.
The offense is having so many troubles in every phase of their game, whether it is running or passing.
The line is not blocking well, no holes to run through, Flacco getting hit often, and the receivers can't get open, and when they are, many are dropping the damn thing or they aren't running their routes properly and the ball ends up where they are supposed to be. And Joe is not looking too good out there either.
All of it is snowballing.

The ball is not bouncing our way this season.
Boldin and Pitta have not been out there moving the chains. Drives stop.
Ray and Ed are not out there bringing the D together, and diagnosing plays pre-snap. Stopping plays by being in the right place.
Opposing QBs don't have to worry about Ed anymore and they ARE throwing in the middle of the field. More field to defend.
Receivers don't have to worry about Pollard knocking them silly either. No fear.
These are important points especially when all stacked together.

2011, we had a team that would punch you in the mouth on both sides of the ball.
2012, some of that was gone and older, but they all came together and believed they could win, and they played above their heads, relied on their experience and leadership for an incredible run.
2013, the old dogs are gone. The punch you in the mouth guys are gone. Only Leach is still here.
Alot of new faces, but we have youth and speed...but the game experience is missing.
We are getting out coached...we are getting out thought.
Other teams are winning the Xs and Os part of the game.
That's why our defense can't get off the field.
That's why our offense can't sustain a damn drive.