How many games takes the AFCN this season?

**Beau Petard** · 11-11-2013, 01:03 PM

I know there was a thread last week asking for predictions of the Ravens record this year, but IMO, it's worth a different slant to consider how many games it will take to win the AFCN, GIVEN the current records, and the upcoming scheduled opponents and their level of play.

Here's a quick list of who everyone in the AFCN (including current record) is scheduled to play for the balance -

Pitt- (3-6)
Det, @Cleve, @Ravens, Miami, Cincy, @GB, Cleve

Cleve- (4-5)
@Cincy, Pitt, JAX, @NE, Chi, @Jets, @Pitt

Cincy- (6-4)
Browns, Bye, @SD, Indy, @Pitt, Minny, Ravens

Ravens- (4-5)
@Chi, Jets, Pitt, Minny, @Det, NE, @Cincy

Before Indy was annihilated yesterday, I thought Cincy had a tougher road. Pitt may win a bunch more, but I don't see them going any better than 5 more. Cleve could surprise, but I'd be stunned if they win 5 or more from here.

So --- does 9 wins take the division? (and this also has to account for possible tied records, so head-to-head and additional tiebreakers foul the picture, too)

**PGCountyRaven85** · 11-11-2013, 01:06 PM

It wouldn't shock me to see 8-8 win this division.

**bensmotorcyclehelmt** · 11-11-2013, 01:08 PM

10 absolutely wins this division.
But 9 more likely.
Tall order for our Ravens. Still think it's Cincy's div. to lose.

**Beau Petard** · 11-11-2013, 02:26 PM

PG-
8-8 would mean that Cincy wins no more than 2 more games. While we can always hope, and also having the Ravens win @Cincy, where would you see their 2 (or less) wins?

bens-
I tend to agree that any AFCN team with 10 wins probably takes the div outright, and I don't really see 2 (or a virtually impossible 3) teams tied at 10. The BEST that Pitt can do is 10, and I don't see them running the table. Ravens and Cleve would need to win every game except 1, and I don't see that as likely, either. Cincy needs 3 wins for 9, 4 for 10. That looks mathematically more the case, but I'll bet their game next week with Cleve will be a slugfest, with Cleve having a decent enough shot at winning, all depends on which personality for both teams shows up, and it could be one of the more meaningful games of the season in how the AFCN results. Plus, they have to travel to SD (timezone, etc.) AND play @ Pitt, so if things bounce the Ravens way, that could be 3 losses, which starts to put our destiny back under our own control.

**YorkRavensFan** · 11-11-2013, 02:32 PM

I think we need 10 wins and one of them has to be another win again Cincy.

**Tolucaraven** · 11-11-2013, 02:36 PM

To me it's about losses. How many losses do you have? Then tiebreakers get used for division and WC. 7 loss team gets either division or WC then add tiebreaker format.

**Beau Petard** · 11-11-2013, 02:48 PM

Toluca-
Very valid point re: losses, and seems to confirm that the AFCN is not gonna have a 12 game winner ;) this regular season!

Going with your premise, Ravens need to be winning at least 5, thus winning the finale at Cincy could be less critical than I originally thought. BUTT, that means they can't let winnable games like Chi, or Minny, turn into losses. Playing @Det could be tougher than expected, and Jets, Pitt and NE will all be tough even with playing them at M&T.

**bensmotorcyclehelmt** · 11-11-2013, 02:48 PM

It's going to be tiebreaker ugly.

I think's it's still possible that every team in the divison could split games with the other 3...

**ravensnhokies** · 11-11-2013, 02:51 PM

I think an 8-8 team is the final WC.

**Beau Petard** · 11-11-2013, 02:55 PM

bens-
If I remember all the intra-div games to date correctly, that scenario (1-1 for all, which I believe is still possible) would tend to knock Cleve and Pitt out of the running, wouldn't it?

**esmd** · 11-11-2013, 02:58 PM

I think 9-7 wins the division. I can certainly see Cincy splitting their remaining games. I'm not so sure about us going 5-2 over our remaining games. I think 8-8 is a pretty good bet for us. Although I will say this. I could see us beating the Bears (Cutler is probably out), Jets, Steelers, and Vikings, with losses to the Lions and Patriots. That would leave us @ 8-7 going into Cincy. Not sure we'd be able to beat them at home, but at least it would be interesting. If we could somehow steal a win at home over the Pats....

**Beau Petard** · 11-11-2013, 03:09 PM

e-
How the heck are ya, mon ami? Startin' to git chilly on Sundays "up in the sky"? ;)

Yeah, you may be more right than wrong on our record, although the Ravens somehow seem to find motivation for games with NE, so who knows. I'm certain Ryan will light major arson in his players' petards, so the Jets may not be too easy; Pitt is a game we need to jump on them early and often, and not let Roeth get anything going, period, because I think Pitt's defense will want to try and make a statement. The Vikes, who knows what we'll see? I DON'T want to see a repeat of the meltdown of several years ago v. Detroit, and IMO they've improved to a level that they are no gimme, at all. But if the Ravens can somehow get 5 wins before playing Cincy again (and that is one TALL order), I suspect that that game might be less than a mandatory W.