Poor Running Game + Unbalanced 1st Down Play Calling = Offensive Ineptitude

[callahan09]

So, looking at the straight statistics, with no further inspection and without taking contexts into consideration, we look like we are fairly well balanced in our first down play-calling. We have passed on 1st down 97 times, and run the ball 104 times, for 51.7% runs on first downs.

But this is an illusion.

From game-to-game, and even from half-to-half, we are extremely unbalanced. Below is our percentage of run plays called on 1st downs each week this season:

W1 = 29.7%
W2 = 70.0%
W3 = 72.7%
W4 = 18.5%
W5 = 79.4%
W6 = 59.3%
W7 = 33.3%

It's always one extreme or the other, isn't it?

The Packers game, week 6, was the closest game to being balanced that we have had all season, but even that was a tale of two halves.

In the first half of that game, we ran 69.2% of our first downs. We then came out and had a perfectly balanced 2nd half, 50.0% runs on first downs.

Looking at each half of football independently, we have the following list of run play percentages on first downs per half this season:

6.7%
9.1%
12.5%
33.3%
42.9%
50.0%
50.0%
53.8%
62.5%
69.2%
77.3%
78.6%
83.3%
87.5%

Those 10 red halves represent an unbalanced play-calling approach on first downs, with more than a 20-point swing to one extreme or the other (pass vs rush) during that half. The 4 green halves represent our most balanced halves this season.

How do you think our team offensive performance compares in those 4 balanced halves vs the 10 unbalanced ones? Per-half rates follow:

BALANCED:
35.0 Plays, 211.8 Yards, 6.05 Yards Per Play, 10.3 First Downs, 29.3% First Downs, 0.3 Turnovers, 11 Points

UNBALANCED:
33.4 Plays, 144.7 Yards, 4.33 Yards Per Play, 7.4 First Downs, 22.2% First Downs, 1.1 Turnovers, 9.2 Points

Bottom line is we need to be balanced and stop having prolonged stretches of play-calling that favors one extreme or the other. In the long run, 20 straight passes followed by 20 straight runs gives the appearance of 50/50 balanced play mixing, but in reality, it's just the tale of two very different extremes of imbalance.

So one of our two biggest problems is the play-calling on first downs, which I believe also leads to issues with other downs of course.

But then there's also the issue of our run game, which has been simply atrocious.

Out of 62 players with more than 30 attempts this season, we own both the 2nd to last and last ranked players in yards per attempt. Rice is 61st, Pierce is 62nd. That's beyond pathetic.

And it comes across in the stats overall, that we are currently LAST in the NFL in Yards Per Attempt, and in 1st Down Percentage on rush attempts.

We are significantly below average in all facets of our running game. The NFL average right now is 4.03 yards per attempt, and we're getting just 2.80.

We are getting stuffed (loss or no gain) way too often. I removed quarterback kneeldowns from every team's attempts to make the numbers more accurate and meaningful to the actual performance of the running game...

We have been stuffed 52 times on 181 attempts. The second highest number there is San Francisco, stuffed 47 times, but on 227 attempts. Our 28.7% stuff percentage is the worst in the NFL.

The NFL average is 19.7%.

Teams that have a high percentage of stuffed runs really struggle to win games.

Teams that are worse than average in this category are 41-57 (.418) this season, while teams that are better than average are 65-49 (.570).

But that doesn't even tell the whole story, due to the somewhat arbitrary distribution of teams that hover around the average mark.

So I think it makes a lot more sense to distribute them into 3 groups: The decidedly worse than average, the decidedly average, and the decidedly better than average. The average group are those teams within 2% of the average (so in this case 17.7% to 21.7%). Then we have the better and worse teams grouped by extremes on either side of that range.

Teams in the worse than average range: 22-44, .333 winning percentage.
Teams in the exactly average range: 42-42, .500 winning percentage.
Teams in the better than average range: 42-20, .677 winning percentage.

We actually are winning at a higher rate (.429) than should be expected for teams in our category (.418 for all teams worse than average, .333 for teams more than 2% worse than average).

But when you consider just how far down on this list we are, it's really surprising that we've even won any games this season. Teams that get stuffed over 25% of the time are just 5-21 for a .192 winning percentage, and we make up 3 out of 5 of those wins. That category is just 2-17 for a .105 winning percentage outside of us. Long story short, the futility of this running game is killing us. The two teams ranked 2nd and 3rd worst in this area are winless. Somehow we've managed to actually win a couple of games.

[arnie_uk]

If that doesnt paint a picture of what is wrong with this team nothing will. We must run the ball better

[iggyman555]

If that doesnt paint a picture of what is wrong with this team nothing will. We must run the ball better

they cant

[ERey]

I went back and rewatched the Ravens only TD drive against the Steelers. I watched the 2nd and goal hand off to Ray Rice in slow motion several times. I am by no means an expert at breaking down film. But I can only assume if an o-lineman doesn't block anyone and falls down its a bad thing. The left side of the line totally blew that play. KO completely wiffed and blocked no one before falling. Eugene Monroe didn't fall, but he failed to stop his guy from making his way to Ray Rice and being part of the tackle. Gino did one of those dive blocks and didn't push anyone back. Ray Rice never had a chance.

[Bigfish]

I'm all for attacking another teams weakness, so some weeks running or passing can be more effective. The imbalance doesn't bother me as much as being ineffective at whatever we do.

[Loyola]

I for one would like them to make MORE use of the stretch play. If they used it more they would shorten the game. Ray could get his 25 carries; Koch could practice his punting; Tucker could rest his leg; Harbaugh wouldn't have to worry about making strategic decisions on kickoffs; Caldwell could use the same game plan game to game (R,R,R,Punt) - Oh wait he already does that; Dickson wouldn't have to worry about dropped passes; Gino wouldn't have to worry about pass protection; our D would get a lot of game experience and TV exposure. There are many more benefits to this - but the concept of using the Ravens running game to set things up seems awful compelling to me.