6th and 7th round draft picks - your take ?

[alienstar]

When I became sick a little over a year ago, I stopped posting on Ravens forums as it just was not a priority. I have still watched every Ravens game since then, and even made it to few. So if you see that I am a Newbie, that is fine, I hope to become an Oldie, cheers. Anyway, a speculative thread on a possible Tony Gonzalez trade got me to start thinking about what 6th and 7th round draft picks mean in today's NFL. The next paragraph is part of what I posted in a late reply to that thread, and it made me wonder if other folks were thinking the same way. I would like to hear what others think about the disposition of late round draft picks.

I think 6th and 7th rounders have become much more important in recent years. Heck, look at how key the development of even UDFAs has become. Most teams are depending on hitting on some of those to become something worth keeping because they are cheap. Everyone eventually needs room to pay that franchise QB, that franchise LT, franchise pass rusher, cornerback, WR and so on, depending on how things are laid out for that specific team.

That being the case, UDFAs and esp lower round draft picks are becoming more important. Stockpiling picks gives teams the opportunity to create a large sample of inexpensive players, in hope that one or two will hit. And more often than not, your likely to find that Hit among 10 guys versus 3 or 4. For the cost of one single solid veteran you might be able to get a heaping handful of UDFAs and lower round picks to evaluate over a stretch of time (not just training camp and preseason). One beneficial side effect of finding a decent starter/backup among that group is that you may find some extra gems outside of the starting eleven offensive and defensive spots. Like special teams standouts or red zone specialists etc. Everyone else from that group you eventually cut, and it does not cost you dearly to do it. Ideally, the cycle constantly repeats at that level of low cost contracts, yielding integral team members into the entire roster along the way. While working the star players and major starters on a whole different financial front.

Look at the Ravens, they hate to cut even their 7th rounders year in and year out these days. I remember a time, that if you were out of the 6th or 7th, your chances were slim in making a team. Getting into why this has become this way more now is probably a topic for another discussion. Maybe one reason is the wealth is not being spread as much within teams. A trending toward fewer number of guys making most of the teams money. In the Ravens case, Flacco, Rice, Suggs, Ngata, Webb, and I guess Yanda. The more high dollar stars you have or conversely the higher dollars you give to a small subset of the team..... the more you are going to have to make due and spread around to the rest of the team. Enter the UDFAs and lower round selections. I don't know the disparity of pay between UDFAs and low round picks. I am guessing that its not a relative huge difference. It seems that you would find more players are more quality players in the draft than undrafted regardless of the draft round #. So to my way of thinking, if you can get extra 6th and 7th rounders, well then get them.

This was part of an argument that I had regarding Tony Gonzalez. If the Falcons find themselves truly out of it, it would be good business to trade TG for a late pick. Maybe it buys part of a Ravens playoff run in the end. I also mentioned that the dome down in Atlanta is going to be a very depressing place soon, barring a major turn around. Why would either party (including Atlanta fans) want to watch TG go out that way. The main point here tho is .. what do you all think about 6th and 7th rounders in today's NFL. thanks. I just seem to remember a time not so long ago that 6th and 7th rounders were generally not making teams as often as now, maybe I'm mistaken. If I am not mistaken, then we should all keep in mind that 6/7 round is valuable now.

[GOTA]

The rise of UDFA for every team is the reason why 6th & 7th round picks have become worth less. There are more undrafted players on rosters now then there ever has been in years past. Add that to the 6th and 7th round compensatory picks that so many teams add up with and you can see why those low round picks have little value. Are 6th and 7th round picks better prospects than undrafted free agents? Once teams get to the 5th round they start contacting players and agents to try and line the up to sign as undrafted players. There is no difference in the talent level between and undrafted player and a 6th or 7th round pick. That's why Marlon Brown finds himself starting for the Ravens and Tommy Streeter is out of the NFL after 1 season.

Teams like to throw these late round picks into draft trades to even out the draft value chart or to get something when they dump a player they would have cut, like we did with Boldin. The value of these picks is as as add on, not as a deal maker. If the 49ers hadn't traded that 6th round pick for Boldin would he still be on the team? Of course not, the Ravens would have released him. The opportunity to get a 6th round pick wasn't the reason the made the move. Dumping his salary was. There is no team feeling they have to make trade because of the opportunity to add 6th or 7th pick or even both.

As for your second point, fans like to see stars when the buy a ticket. The Falcons have just banged the taxpayers yet again for another new stadium. How would it look if they started dumping their stars for 6th or 7th round picks? It would come across as a salary dump which would be a disaster after getting so much money in for that stadium. There is no way they trade Gonzalez or any other star player before deadline next week no matter what their record is.

[camdenyard]

If anything, I think this speaks to what constitutes a "lost" season to the media these days. 1-4. 4 losses, really? The 1975 Colts went 0-4 and ripped off 10 wins in a row. That was one of the most exciting seasons of football ever. No, I think they would have to lose 3 more before throwing in the towel.

[Trackmaster]

The draft is a numbers game. Plus, assuming that 1st rounders will have an average career of about 6 years (being generous), that means that the average team should have about 6 1st rounders on their squad at any given time. That means that you have to flesh out your roster with more picks (and many 1st rounders are just flat out busts). And picks in the 7th round are important because it means that you have exclusive rights to a player, and don't have to compete to sign them as UDFA's.

One thing to point out, there's actually more UDFA's in the HOF right now than #1 overall picks. You get a snapshot of a player in college, and they're playing a different game than they'll be playing in the pros. Some guys game's don't translate well to the NFL, and some potential stars' stock plummets because of things like injuries or "character concerns." I think that usually our late round picks aren't any less talented than first three round picks, they're just from smaller schools, or have certain risks.

[Tolucaraven]

If anything, I think this speaks to what constitutes a "lost" season to the media these days. 1-4. 4 losses, really? The 1975 Colts went 0-4 and ripped off 10 wins in a row. That was one of the most exciting seasons of football ever. No, I think they would have to lose 3 more before throwing in the towel.

That was a great season. Falcons have now until week 8 to decide to deal him. They will likely know more then. I bet they will do whats best for Tony. But, they have a few weeks to see where the season is going. That Colt season was incredible. A young team that jelled and put it all together.

[Tolucaraven]

The draft is a crapshoot. Always will be and always was. The more picks the better, plus you can trade those picks to move up in the draft to target a player. On a side note Ravens were ready to sign college kicker Succop and where on the phone with him when the Chiefs selected him with the last pick of the 7th round. We got Cundiff as a result, that move might have cost Ravens a SB appearance.

[BcRaven]

If anything, I think this speaks to what constitutes a "lost" season to the media these days. 1-4. 4 losses, really? The 1975 Colts went 0-4 and ripped off 10 wins in a row. That was one of the most exciting seasons of football ever. No, I think they would have to lose 3 more before throwing in the towel.

While you're correct, it still doesn't allow the Falcons much wiggle room. If we assume a team needs 10 wins to gain a playoff spot, then the Falcons have to go 9 - 2 the rest of the way. The way they're playing, and with JJ out, that's a tall order to fill... Bc

[OhThePossibilities]

The draft is a crapshoot. Always will be and always was. The more picks the better, plus you can trade those picks to move up in the draft to target a player. On a side note Ravens were ready to sign college kicker Succop and where on the phone with him when the Chiefs selected him with the last pick of the 7th round. We got Cundiff as a result, that move might have cost Ravens a SB appearance.

If the draft were a true crapshoot, you wouldn't see the same teams repeatedly doing well drafting. While I would agree that hitting on a great find in rounds 6-7 takes some amount of luck, most of the draft is built on the sweat and knowledge of your scouts and the ability of the GM to determine the needs of the other teams and how he can move around to maximize the value of his picks with that knowledge. That's not luck. That's hard work. That's intelligence. That's skill.

[MD Boy]

The draft is a crapshoot. Always will be and always was. The more picks the better, plus you can trade those picks to move up in the draft to target a player. On a side note Ravens were ready to sign college kicker Succop and where on the phone with him when the Chiefs selected him with the last pick of the 7th round. We got Cundiff as a result, that move might have cost Ravens a SB appearance.

First thing I thought of. That and I was hoping the Ravens would have taken a flier using a low rounder on Vontaze Burfict (sp?) who signed with Cinci and is doing pretty well.

[lowrider]

If anything, I think this speaks to what constitutes a "lost" season to the media these days. 1-4. 4 losses, really? The 1975 Colts went 0-4 and ripped off 10 wins in a row. That was one of the most exciting seasons of football ever. No, I think they would have to lose 3 more before throwing in the towel.

That was an awesome season in Baltimore football history. That was pre FA and pre salary cap, but nonetheless it was special. I can't see Atlanta giving up on their season. They have way too much talent on that team. Very capable of ripping off 8-9 wins in a row.

[alienstar]

That was an awesome season in Baltimore football history. That was pre FA and pre salary cap, but nonetheless it was special. I can't see Atlanta giving up on their season. They have way too much talent on that team. Very capable of ripping off 8-9 wins in a row.

They def have some bright stars and excellent QB, but nowhere near the type of talent to rip off an 8 or 9 game run (even with a friendly schedule), just my opinion. Their Lines on both sides of the ball are in trouble. Their left tackle appears to be busting. On the other side they have no pass rush or stud interior lineman. The linebacking crew needs more help than most NFL teams. They have a rookie kicker that is not proven. Their coaching might be a reason they have not gone further the past few years, very suspect play calling and game planning, seats might be getting hot. They lack depth all around in a major way and had a very lackluster offseason (alls I can say is thank god we have ozzie & staff). Roddy white is hobbled with injuries and doesnt look himself. And of course they just lost their best player. I do think they are still dangerous on a game to game basis. But i think anyone in that organization being realistic must know that this is just not a case of a great team with bad ball bounces and bad luck 5 games in. One of the lesser points of the thread was to point out that Atlanta needs to make major changes going forward, IMO hoarding draft picks would be part of the plan. They already have their Franchise QB (and superstar WR provided he wants to stay), that is better than a lot of teams have. The first ballot HOF TE was there for a final shot at the bowl. Outside of that, I see a partial rebuild coming. That being said, the presence of TG for the rest of the season could save coaching jobs. With the expectations going into the season, I don't know if 7-9 or 8-8 would be much less embarrassing than 5-11 or 6-10 ?

[lowrider]

They def have some bright stars and excellent QB, but nowhere near the type of talent to rip off an 8 or 9 game run (even with a friendly schedule), just my opinion. Their Lines on both sides of the ball are in trouble. Their left tackle appears to be busting. On the other side they have no pass rush or stud interior lineman. The linebacking crew needs more help than most NFL teams. They have a rookie kicker that is not proven. Their coaching might be a reason they have not gone further the past few years, very suspect play calling and game planning, seats might be getting hot. They lack depth all around in a major way and had a very lackluster offseason (alls I can say is thank god we have ozzie & staff). Roddy white is hobbled with injuries and doesnt look himself. And of course they just lost their best player. I do think they are still dangerous on a game to game basis. But i think anyone in that organization being realistic must know that this is just not a case of a great team with bad ball bounces and bad luck 5 games in. One of the lesser points of the thread was to point out that Atlanta needs to make major changes going forward, IMO hoarding draft picks would be part of the plan. They already have their Franchise QB (and superstar WR provided he wants to stay), that is better than a lot of teams have. The first ballot HOF TE was there for a final shot at the bowl. Outside of that, I see a partial rebuild coming. That being said, the presence of TG for the rest of the season could save coaching jobs. With the expectations going into the season, I don't know if 7-9 or 8-8 would be much less embarrassing than 5-11 or 6-10 ?

I will say this: We've had allot of issues as well. Injuries, rookies, and new faces. However, we are 3-2, and they are 1-4. A testament to our FO and coaching staff. The Falcons have not been blown out of any of their losses. They could very easily be 4-1. The loss of Jones is a big blow but they still have allot of talent. I agree that building for the future is always good and if they could score a couple of late round picks by dealing TG, I would do it. That's just good business sense. But I still say that team can win enough games to make the playoffs.