What was Caldwell thinking on 3rd and 22?

[4G63]

I've bookmarked this thread so that when the Ravens go "conservative" when holding a lead in the 4th and it still results in a close game or loss, I'll remind you that they took their foot off the pedal and allowed it to happen. I, for one, can't stand the "play not to lose" attitude that the Ravens have employed throughout their history and for once I welcome the aggressive playcall. It worked against them and resulted in a pick-6. Oh f***ing well!! Like I said above, if it succeeded, Joe and Harbaugh and the entire offense would have been lauded for the "gutsy" call. The NFL favors aggressive offenses now and the Ravens should continue with the aggressiveness!!

[Jsmoove]

I've bookmarked this thread so that when the Ravens go "conservative" when holding a lead in the 4th and it still results in a close game or loss, I'll remind you that they took their foot off the pedal and allowed it to happen. I, for one, can't stand the "play not to lose" attitude that the Ravens have employed throughout their history and for once I welcome the aggressive playcall. It worked against them and resulted in a pick-6. Oh f***ing well!! Like I said above, if it succeeded, Joe and Harbaugh and the entire offense would have been lauded for the "gutsy" call. The NFL favors aggressive offenses now and the Ravens should continue with the aggressiveness!!

its not about being conservative its about making the right call given the circumstances and situations around calling a play like that, if our OLINE was playing up to par that call there would be great because Torrey had his man beat, even Cladwell said they didn't take into the effect the play of the Oline, Mckinnie was whiffin on blocks all day long he kept looking behind him all day like he dropped some change on the ground. Obviously backed up in the shadow of your goal line, your Oline has been like swiss cheese in pass protection but you were atleast getting some push on the ground, run the ball, your defense was playing light outs and creating pressure on the opposing QB, put in there hands to protect the lead. If we were playing Manning or Brady i can see making that kinda call.

[NC Raven]

IMO, based on what had happened up to that point in time, Caldwell drastically overestimated the probability that the line (& specifically McKinnie) would do its job.

So I agree with Harbs--it was a mistake given what was known at the time.

Exactly.

The Dolphins were not only crushing McKinnie on that series, they were also getting pressure right up the middle. It didn't seem likely that on the very next play, we'd suddenly solve those two problems.

We had a 7 point lead and the defense was playing great. Every reason in the world to think (a) a long developing pass play was doomed, given that McKinnie couldn't handle Jordan and another blitz was on its way; (b) that a run would gain a few yards, eat more clock, and give us space to punt, and (c) the defense would not concede a tying touchdown, pretty much no matter where the Dolphins ended up with the ball after the punt.

FWIW, some people are framing this as "conservative vs aggressive" or "playing to win vs playing not to lose." Those are, with all due respect, empty concepts. You don't need a "philosophy" to come up with a play call on 3rd and 22 from inside your 10. What you need to do is calculate which move gives you the best chance at the best outcome, factoring in everything you know about how well the offense and defense are playing, the score, the time remaining, etc.

With a different score, with a different amount of time remaining, you make a different choice.

For example, lets say this play had happened with 43 seconds left, and the Dolphins have two timeouts. Anyone want to air it out now? On the other hand, if it's the second quarter, it just might be a back breaker for Miami if it hits.

Bottom line is it was a weird time for that call, given the poor pass protection on that particular series. Give the Dolphins credit; I will watch it again to see what they did, but they had absolutely made a great adjustment with their pass rush on that series, and it was clear by 3rd down that we had no response to it yet. I didn't think there was any way the Ravens had the confidence in the O line to make that play call. Glad it worked out, but...yikes.

[The Excellector]

All Kock was going to do was give them ball at our 40. And again, look at what they D did anyway. Third and long, Tannehill gets away from Doom (Good play by Tannehill), and somebody got caught napping on the back end. Miami should have never been in position for that FG.