What was Caldwell thinking on 3rd and 22?

**lobachevsky** · 10-07-2013, 08:54 AM

Originally Posted by Ravenswintitle

Harbaugh admits it was a mistake.

He considers it a mistake in 20-20 hindsight. Classic shoulda-woulda-coulda from the most risk-averse coach in the NFL.

As has been pointed out, Torrey was open, Joe saw him, & with a quarter-second more they team up for a huge gain. I like the play call in the abstract--& yet I'll agree with Harbs this time, only because the call presumes that the line can hold its blocks to give it time to develop, & if there was any one thing Big Mac wasn't doing yesterday it was holding his blocks. If Caldwell erred it was in not taking the line play into account.

**4G63** · 10-07-2013, 09:34 AM

This thread is hilarious.

So when Joe hit Pitta in last years PO game in Denver from almost the same position, that aggressiveness won the game and now, all of a sudden, we want to go timid against a lesser opponent?!? I have zero problem with the playcall and more of a problem with Harbaugh wimping out and admitting it was "a mistake".

If Joe gets that pass off and hits Torrey for a big gainer or even a TD, we'd be talking about how awesome it was and how "money" they both Joe and Torrey are. The offense had been playing better in the second-half too so I don't get the angst for the playcall. Bunch of Nancy's in here!!

**HoustonRaven** · 10-07-2013, 09:42 AM

Originally Posted by lobachevsky

He considers it a mistake in 20-20 hindsight. Classic shoulda-woulda-coulda from the most risk-averse coach in the NFL.

As has been pointed out, Torrey was open, Joe saw him, & with a quarter-second more they team up for a huge gain. I like the play call in the abstract--& yet I'll agree with Harbs this time, only because the call presumes that the line can hold its blocks to give it time to develop, & if there was any one thing Big Mac wasn't doing yesterday it was holding his blocks. If Caldwell erred it was in not taking the line play into account.

Every admission of a mistake has the benefit of hindsight. Why is it a knock here?

**lobachevsky** · 10-07-2013, 11:08 AM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Every admission of a mistake has the benefit of hindsight. Why is it a knock here?

There's a world of difference between

It was a bad call because it wasn't likely to work

and

It was a bad call because it didn't work.

The latter attitude is what I scorn as "20-20 hindsight" because it presupposes knowledge at the time of how that play will turn out.

Sometimes that play call results in an INC and a punt; sometimes a completion & a first down or big gain or TD even. (Cf. Dilfer to Sharpe, BAL@OAK, 2001 AFCCC: 95 yards, TD.) Sometimes the ball is tipped for a pick-6.

In hindsight the probabilities of those 3 outcomes are 0, 0, and 100%. In hindsight any play call that didn't result in a TD for the Fins would have been a better call.

What were the best estimates of those probabilities at the time?

Harbaugh, as arguably the most risk-averse HC in the NFL, would no doubt have answered differently from Caldwell at the time.

The probability of that call being successful was critically dependent on the line giving Joe enough time to throw, & if it didn't all sorts of bad things could result (pick-6, fumble, sack & punt from inside the 5,sack for safety, etc.). IMO, based on what had happened up to that point in time, Caldwell drastically overestimated the probability that the line (& specifically McKinnie) would do its job.

So I agree with Harbs--it was a mistake given what was known at the time.

**IBleedPurple2127** · 10-07-2013, 11:19 AM

Originally Posted by 4G63

This thread is hilarious.

So when Joe hit Pitta in last years PO game in Denver from almost the same position, that aggressiveness won the game and now, all of a sudden, we want to go timid against a lesser opponent?!? I have zero problem with the playcall and more of a problem with Harbaugh wimping out and admitting it was "a mistake".

If Joe gets that pass off and hits Torrey for a big gainer or even a TD, we'd be talking about how awesome it was and how "money" they both Joe and Torrey are. The offense had been playing better in the second-half too so I don't get the angst for the playcall. Bunch of Nancy's in here!!

The difference was that was a tie game, and the next score would win the game. In this game we had the lead and our defense was playing fantastic all game long.

**Mista T** · 10-07-2013, 11:23 AM

Originally Posted by Ravenswintitle

almost cost the game. run it up the middle and punt. it ain't pretty but it beats the hell out of a pick six

Exactly. That's what I told my wife as the Ravens lined up for the 3rd down play. I said "conservative running play ... no way that Flacco would pass in this situation". Shows how little I knew!

**Ravenswintitle** · 10-07-2013, 11:42 AM

Originally Posted by IBleedPurple2127

The difference was that was a tie game, and the next score would win the game. In this game we had the lead and our defense was playing fantastic all game long.

agreed; maybe I'm conservative but a run up the middle and punt would've preserved the win.

**mmi16** · 10-07-2013, 11:53 AM

Originally Posted by 4G63

This thread is hilarious.

So when Joe hit Pitta in last years PO game in Denver from almost the same position, that aggressiveness won the game and now, all of a sudden, we want to go timid against a lesser opponent?!? I have zero problem with the playcall and more of a problem with Harbaugh wimping out and admitting it was "a mistake".

If Joe gets that pass off and hits Torrey for a big gainer or even a TD, we'd be talking about how awesome it was and how "money" they both Joe and Torrey are. The offense had been playing better in the second-half too so I don't get the angst for the playcall. Bunch of Nancy's in here!!

At Denver they weren't trying to protect a lead.

**ERey** · 10-07-2013, 12:00 PM

Originally Posted by 4G63

This thread is hilarious.

So when Joe hit Pitta in last years PO game in Denver from almost the same position, that aggressiveness won the game and now, all of a sudden, we want to go timid against a lesser opponent?!? I have zero problem with the playcall and more of a problem with Harbaugh wimping out and admitting it was "a mistake".

If Joe gets that pass off and hits Torrey for a big gainer or even a TD, we'd be talking about how awesome it was and how "money" they both Joe and Torrey are. The offense had been playing better in the second-half too so I don't get the angst for the playcall. Bunch of Nancy's in here!!

Not even remotely the same thing for obvious reasons.

**The Excellector** · 10-07-2013, 01:04 PM

Originally Posted by 4G63

This thread is hilarious.

So when Joe hit Pitta in last years PO game in Denver from almost the same position, that aggressiveness won the game and now, all of a sudden, we want to go timid against a lesser opponent?!? I have zero problem with the playcall and more of a problem with Harbaugh wimping out and admitting it was "a mistake".

If Joe gets that pass off and hits Torrey for a big gainer or even a TD, we'd be talking about how awesome it was and how "money" they both Joe and Torrey are. The offense had been playing better in the second-half too so I don't get the angst for the playcall. Bunch of Nancy's in here!!

I completely agree. How many times have we criticized Harbaugh for being too conservative and relying on his defense too much. As it stood, Koch was struggling, which would have meant a short field, and the defense ended up giving up a big inexcusable third and long to get Miami in field goal range later on anyway.

I too am disappointed in Harbaugh admitting it was a mistake, because it wasn't. YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!

However, I have not heard the context in which he said it was a mistake yet.

**The Excellector** · 10-07-2013, 01:05 PM

Originally Posted by mmi16

At Denver they weren't trying to protect a lead.

Well they finally weren't trying to sit on one either, which is another thing Harbaugh gets criticized for.

**Jsmoove** · 10-07-2013, 01:27 PM

Originally Posted by 4G63

This thread is hilarious.

So when Joe hit Pitta in last years PO game in Denver from almost the same position, that aggressiveness won the game and now, all of a sudden, we want to go timid against a lesser opponent?!? I have zero problem with the playcall and more of a problem with Harbaugh wimping out and admitting it was "a mistake".

If Joe gets that pass off and hits Torrey for a big gainer or even a TD, we'd be talking about how awesome it was and how "money" they both Joe and Torrey are. The offense had been playing better in the second-half too so I don't get the angst for the playcall. Bunch of Nancy's in here!!

we were up by a TD, it was not tied nor were we playing from behind and 3rd and long with NO PITTA OR BOLDIN you don't call that in that situation, especially when Mckinnie was hosting a party line letting everyone in.