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Thread: Art Jones

  1. #76
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    Re: Art Jones



    Suggs is going nowhere anytime soon, cap be damned.




  2. #77
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    Re: Art Jones

    Suggs' game may provide him some longevity, because it's more predicated on sound technique and strength, rather than speed, even though Suggs is still very athletic for a player his size. He can just do too many things. He can 'successfully' drop into zones. He can 'successfully' jam WRs and TEs at the line of scrimmage. He can 'all hell' set the edge and he can still rush the passer.

    I will say this though, if they are going to extend him, they had better keep a pass rusher opposite him. He won't see anymore Defensive MVP type seasons without a legitimate pass rusher opposite him, as he gets up there in age.
    "When questioned, the Elders explained that they were in search of magical powers. However, they're actually searching for the whereabouts of a certain ring. This ring is a legendary treasure that long ago was known to exist"




  3. #78
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    Re: Art Jones

    Quote Originally Posted by ursula View Post
    Players who are looking like cap casuaties next offseason:
    - McClain. Team saves $3.2M against the cap by cutting him, creating $1.2M of dead money
    - McKinnie. Team saves $3M against the cap by cutting him, creating $1M of dead money. Cutting him almost guarantees the team needing to draft a high round/1st round OT.
    - Koch. Team saves $1.6M against the cap by cutting him, creating $1.2M of dead money. Need a new punter then..or maybe he takes a salary cut...
    - Huff Team saves $1.25M against the cap by cutting him, creating $1M of dead money. I'd give that money to Dig on a 1 year contract.
    - Leach. Team saves $2.33M against the cap by cutting him, creating $0 of dead money.

    That's over $11M in cap savings.

    I'm praying that the team and Suggs work out a solution where he stays with us.
    First off, Leach has $580 in dead money for next year, so cutting him would only save $1.75, making that decision much tougher.

    Secondly, even if all 5 players you mentioned were in fact cut, the true cap savings would be around $8.3m at most. You need to factor in that each player would be replaced by someone making at least $500k or so.

    McClain is a no-brainer.

    McKinnie is a bit tougher of a decision. Given his age and cap figure, he has to be one of the top candidates to be cut, but that is a risky position to leave unattended. I still think he's somewhat likely to be in his last year in Bmore.

    Koch I'm on the fence about. He's got a $2.8 cap figure with $1.2 in dead money. So, on the surface, it saves the team $1.6m. However, when you consider what you have to pay the punter replacing him, the true savings is only $1.1m. I think the having dead money tied down for a K (as we did with Cundiff last year) or a P is a cap no-no personally. With Cundiff, we had no other choice. With Koch, it's a blurrier line. I think he might survive 2014, but in 2015, he has a very "cut friendly" contract with a $3.1 cap figure and only $600k in dead money.

    Cutting Huff only saves $1.25. Given his experience and versatility, even as a backup, I still don't think that's enough of a cap savings to justify cutting him. Huff has been a mild disappointment so far, and if his lackluster play continues, he might get cut. Aside from continued poor play, I just don't see how you can cut a capable player who can play two separate valued positions just to save $1.25m on your cap. Again, if the Ravens were to cut Huff and replace him with a rookie, they'd really only be saving $750k.




  4. #79
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    Re: Art Jones

    Here is the solution to Suggs.

    His cap # for 2014 is $12.4 ($4.6 dead money plus $7.8 base salary). Of the six big contracts on the books for the Ravens, Suggs is the easiest to work with because it a) is the only one that expires in 2014 and b) not surprisingly, it has the least amount of dead money attached to it.

    So here's what you do..... Take $6m of Suggs' 2014 salary and convert it into a bonus. Spread it evenly over 2014, 2015, and 2016.

    This makes lowers his cap figure for 2014 from $12.4 to $8.4m, while creating $2m of dead money for 2015 and 2016. You then offer a two-year contract extension, taking him up through age 34, for $12m. That's a very fair contract amount when you look what other similarly-aged pass rushers have been getting of late (Abraham, Freeney, J. Harrison).

    You give him a $2m signing bonus for the extension, spread evenly between 2015 and 2016. You guarantee 2015, but not 2016.

    So now his contract break down looks like this.

    2014: $8.4m cap figure ($1.8 base salary, $6.6 in dead money)
    2015: $8m cap figure ($5m base salary, $3m dead money- $1m from extension, $2m from restructure)
    2016: $8m cap figure ($5m base salary, $3m dead money)




  5. #80

    Re: Art Jones

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    You then offer a two-year contract extension, taking him up through age 34, for $12m. That's a very fair contract amount when you look what other similarly-aged pass rushers have been getting of late (Abraham, Freeney, J. Harrison).
    Those three guys are not very good comparisons, as they were all free agents for months before being signed. Suggs would be signed very quickly as a free agent and thus would also get paid a lot more. I think the best comparison is Robert Mathis, who signed a 4-year $36m deal in 2012. He is 1 year older than Suggs, so he was pretty much same age back then as Suggs will be after this season. I feel pretty certain saying that a Suggs-extension (if he keeps playing like this) will be in $9-10m range and not $6m.




  6. #81
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    Re: Art Jones

    Quote Originally Posted by CopRaven View Post
    Those three guys are not very good comparisons, as they were all free agents for months before being signed. Suggs would be signed very quickly as a free agent and thus would also get paid a lot more. I think the best comparison is Robert Mathis, who signed a 4-year $36m deal in 2012. He is 1 year older than Suggs, so he was pretty much same age back then as Suggs will be after this season. I feel pretty certain saying that a Suggs-extension (if he keeps playing like this) will be in $9-10m range and not $6m.
    1) 2012 and 2013 were much different seasons for free agency. The 2012 offseason saw a ton of players get way, way too much money. Quite a few of those guys got cut after just one year. How much of that $37.5 did Eric Wright collect when he got cut after one season?

    2) If Suggs were to hit the free agent market this upcoming season, then I think he'd probably get about $27 over 3 years, assuming he finishes out this season relatively healthy. That's his true market value. There is no way any team would give an extension for 2015/16 at a 2013 market value, unless the player is likely to ascend rapidly. So when you are determining his extension value, you typically use about 65-80% of present market value to determine future value. Otherwise, what's the upside for the club? It's the trade off that players make to get their money up front, particularly in a sport where injuries can change so much and contracts are non-guaranteed.

    3) 2 years-$12m is probably a touch on the light side of what Suggs' value is, even when factoring in the prepay discount. However, the upside for Suggs is immense. His $ 8.4 salary for 2013 becomes guaranteed. If he doesn't take the extension, and gets cut, he's not going to see that type of first-year money anywhere else. Even better for Suggs is that he gets $6m of that $8.4 immediately. He also get's another $2m in signing bonus for his new contract. Lastly, if he gets $27 over 3 with any other team, it's likely going to be heavily front loaded, as to decrease the possibility that he ever sees year #2 and #3 of that contract. By guaranteeing his 2015 contract, the Ravens should be able to get a justifiable discount. Keep in mind, with most NFL contracts, the size of the contract is largely irrelevant. It's the guaranteed money that matters. What I just proposed would guarantee Suggs a minimum of $16.4m ($8.4 due him for 2014 + $2m signing bonus +$6m in 2015)


    #4) Even though this is what I would do, I doubt the Ravens will do it. They will likely ask him to take a pay cut or trade him, just like they did with Boldin.




  7. #82
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    Re: Art Jones

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    Here is the solution to Suggs.

    His cap # for 2014 is $12.4 ($4.6 dead money plus $7.8 base salary). Of the six big contracts on the books for the Ravens, Suggs is the easiest to work with because it a) is the only one that expires in 2014 and b) not surprisingly, it has the least amount of dead money attached to it.

    So here's what you do..... Take $6m of Suggs' 2014 salary and convert it into a bonus. Spread it evenly over 2014, 2015, and 2016.

    This makes lowers his cap figure for 2014 from $12.4 to $8.4m, while creating $2m of dead money for 2015 and 2016. You then offer a two-year contract extension, taking him up through age 34, for $12m. That's a very fair contract amount when you look what other similarly-aged pass rushers have been getting of late (Abraham, Freeney, J. Harrison).

    You give him a $2m signing bonus for the extension, spread evenly between 2015 and 2016. You guarantee 2015, but not 2016.

    So now his contract break down looks like this.

    2014: $8.4m cap figure ($1.8 base salary, $6.6 in dead money)
    2015: $8m cap figure ($5m base salary, $3m dead money- $1m from extension, $2m from restructure)
    2016: $8m cap figure ($5m base salary, $3m dead money)
    Very well thought out as most of your cap comments are LD, and it will depend largely on how he performs all year IMO. I still think he is a high risk to be cut at the end of the year. He's the most likely candidate to get a good chunk of cap back. If he has an incredible year, maybe they don't take that route but we'll keep playing with bargain guys at a lot of positions.
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  8. #83
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    Re: Art Jones

    Quote Originally Posted by Ravenswintitle View Post
    Very well thought out as most of your cap comments are LD, and it will depend largely on how he performs all year IMO. I still think he is a high risk to be cut at the end of the year. He's the most likely candidate to get a good chunk of cap back. If he has an incredible year, maybe they don't take that route but we'll keep playing with bargain guys at a lot of positions.
    Cutting Suggs opens up $8.4 in free cap space, so you're entirely correct. Suggs might be the most talented football player on the roster, but last year showed us what you can accomplish with $8-10m in free cap space. We could theoretically fit Pitta, Ighedibo, D. Smith, and a FA wide receiver with first year cap figures into the $8.4 we'd save by cutting the last year of Suggs' contract.

    If he's unwilling to take a pay cut or a reasonable extension, cutting him certainly wouldn't be the worst thing that could happen, given the free cap space it creates. I think you look for a solution to keep him first, though, since he is one of the top two players on the roster (along with Yanda) IMO.

    At this juncture in time, Suggs' contract isn't the most problematic one. It just happens to be the easiest to address because it's approaching it's final year and has a relatively small amount of dead money left. The contracts for Ngata, Webby, and Rice are probably a bit more burdensome, but we have no leverage to ask any of that trio for a contract adjustment. The fear of a release is usually a nice motivator towards getting a player to work with you, and there is no way we can release any of those 3 because the dead money is equal to, or in the case of Rice, greater than the cap figure.

    Yanda is probably the most likely candidate for a restructure, even though his contract is probably the most forgiving of the six big contracts on the books. Marshal has proven willing to work with the Ravens with restructures at least once before. He will be 30 next year and is probably one of the least risky players on the roster from a performance standpoint, so if you are going to restructure a guy (a concept the Raven FO clearly dislikes), a player of Yanda's stature is probably a logical place to start.




  9. #84

    Re: Art Jones

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    Cutting Suggs opens up $8.4 in free cap space, so you're entirely correct.
    Suggs's salary next year is 7.8m plus 4.6m of prorated bonus. The 4.6m is dead money which will still count against the cap. We'd save the 7.8m in salary against the cap. Seems like a bargain to keep him for 7.8m, but with an extension that number could be dropped even more.
    Last edited by Bigfish; 09-28-2013 at 05:16 PM.




  10. #85

    Re: Art Jones

    LukeDaniel, you make some great points, really appreciate discussing with you.

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    1) 2012 and 2013 were much different seasons for free agency. The 2012 offseason saw a ton of players get way, way too much money. Quite a few of those guys got cut after just one year. How much of that $37.5 did Eric Wright collect when he got cut after one season?
    This is interesting and I'll admit that it a trend I havn't noticed. I'm sitting and trying to find comparable players who were free agents in respectively 2012 and 2013 to see if I can find some specific instances of this. The best one I found was Vincent Jackson in 2012 and Mike Wallace in 2013. Jackson got $11.5m/year, Wallace got $12m/year. I'm interested in seeing more comparisons, so feel free to post some if you can find some good ones.

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    2) If Suggs were to hit the free agent market this upcoming season, then I think he'd probably get about $27 over 3 years, assuming he finishes out this season relatively healthy. That's his true market value. There is no way any team would give an extension for 2015/16 at a 2013 market value, unless the player is likely to ascend rapidly. So when you are determining his extension value, you typically use about 65-80% of present market value to determine future value. Otherwise, what's the upside for the club? It's the trade off that players make to get their money up front, particularly in a sport where injuries can change so much and contracts are non-guaranteed.
    I'm not so sure you can find many cases that backs up this claim. When I see extensions around the league those deals are almost always at market value. As to the bolded part: there's plenty of upside for the club. Preventing other teams from going beyond market value or structuring the deal in a way they can't match. Avoiding unflexible salaries, such as the last year of multi-year contract or franchise tag.

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    3) 2 years-$12m is probably a touch on the light side of what Suggs' value is, even when factoring in the prepay discount. However, the upside for Suggs is immense. His $ 8.4 salary for 2013 becomes guaranteed. If he doesn't take the extension, and gets cut, he's not going to see that type of first-year money anywhere else. Even better for Suggs is that he gets $6m of that $8.4 immediately. He also get's another $2m in signing bonus for his new contract. Lastly, if he gets $27 over 3 with any other team, it's likely going to be heavily front loaded, as to decrease the possibility that he ever sees year #2 and #3 of that contract. By guaranteeing his 2015 contract, the Ravens should be able to get a justifiable discount. Keep in mind, with most NFL contracts, the size of the contract is largely irrelevant. It's the guaranteed money that matters. What I just proposed would guarantee Suggs a minimum of $16.4m ($8.4 due him for 2014 + $2m signing bonus +$6m in 2015)
    I know I'm being a little picky right now, but you mean $7.8m and not $8.4m (you've confused the current $4.6m bonus proration with the $4m bonus prorations for 2015/2016 he gets in your suggestion). And $7.8m in first-year payment with a new team? It's absolutely possible he gets that.

    In your scenario Suggs receives $15.8m over the course of the first two years. If someone else offers him a 3-year $27m deal which is so frontloaded that it's feasible to cut him after just one year, then that means they have paid A LOT in year 1, and when i say a lot, i mean in the neighbourhood of the $15.8m you have him slotted to make over the course of two years with us. Also if he signs an extension with us, don't you think that would serve as an insurance that he retires a Raven? Suggs will probably be in the league beyond 2015, so I think that if he were to give us a "hometown-discount" (hate that term) then it would require a bit more contractual insurance than you're willing to give him.[/quote]

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    #4) Even though this is what I would do, I doubt the Ravens will do it. They will likely ask him to take a pay cut or trade him, just like they did with Boldin.
    Yeah, but it's much more fun to discuss contract ideas than talking about who's going to get cut. So let's just keep the discussion at that.

    I apologize if I come off as being dismissive of your suggestions. I just think it's a fun discussion to have.




  11. #86

    Re: Art Jones

    Trading Jones is an interesting option. I know trading is rare, but can anyone speculate what his return value would be in terms of picks?
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