Ozzie isn't perfect (but I'd keep him!)

[BillickFan]

Jason Brown was easily the 2nd best selection.

You're right! I missed him (Brown) as I was looking thru the names.

I wasn't criticizing Ozzie. I was actually trying to say (not very well) that he's the best GM in the league at the draft & even as good as he is, we've had some clunker drafts. It's amazing how when you see all the names on 1 page of guys we've drafted, there's a lot of names that are gonna be in the Ring Of Honor / Hall of Fame. We are widely respected as one of the best drafting teams in the NFL.

Thinking of teams that are always mediocre to bad on a regular basis, they have the advantage of drafting in a higher slot, and they haven't moved from crappy to good (Thinking Browns & Cards specifically, Jags too, Panthers, maybe a few others) while Ozzie has been able to draft core guys to keep us competitive in damn near every season since Billick's first year. Since the Marchibroda era ended, we've been competitive nearly every season. A lot of that is built thru the success Ozzie has had.

My original post probably didn't convey what I wanted it to. It was more a "damn, we're lucky to have him" and "holy crap, how bad must some of the consistently lousy teams draft?" mixed togetehr. Would've made more sense if I lined up our drafts vs some bad teams, but I'm too lazy for that........

[bensmotorcyclehelmt]

I was about to write off Kruger until this year.

He had a nice year, but it still took longer than expected for him to break out. Granted, he was behind a few decent players.

I still wonder where all the disagreement was re: kruger's correct position...

[srobert96]

The question is, what is a reasonable success rate to expect?

Bill Polian, who might be the best ever, once said in an interview that if you hit on 50% of your draft picks you'd never miss the Super Bowl. Vinny Cerrato, who was a clown as a GM, said on the radio a few weeks ago that it's like a batting average, if you hit .300 in the draft then you're doing very well. I don't necessarily trust Cerrato's judgement and standards, but he does know the industry standards and he speaks the lingo.

So then: Cerrato sets the floor and Polian sets the ceiling. We should expect somewhere between 30% and 50% of the draft picks to "pan out". And I guess we should have higher expectations of the higher round picks than of the lower.

But what does it mean to "pan out"? A first rounder who becomes a Super Bowl MVP has obviously delivered. But a 4th-rounder who becomes a spec teams ace, like Marcus Smith, may also be a successful pick. Third corners, third WRs, situational pass rushers – there are a lot of contributors to a successful team.

So – I dunno. When I looked at this a couple months ago, I counted 4 weak drafts out of 17: 1998, 2004, 2005, 2010. Of those 4, 2005 and 2010 weren't really "bad", they were mediocre / below-average. (Assuming Dickson or David Reed or Arthur Jones make a contribution this season.) 1998 and 2004 were really bad. So say 2-1/2 bad drafts out of 17: not bad.

The situation looked different in 2006, when we were coming off of consecutive weak drafts and it seemed like the magic might be entirely gone. But 2006-7-8 were fine drafts, really the foundation for the current run of winning seasons.

I think it is difficult to put a percentage of success on draft picks. The reason being is that draft picks after the 5th round are not really expected to be successful. Especially when you have been a consistently good squad. There just are not that many openings for rookies to make the team. I think it really comes down to first and foremost your ability to draft game changers. Guys that have all pro potential for 7-10 years. That is really where Ozzie stands above the rest. If you look at the number of great players he has brought into the organization it is staggering. 3 DPOY in Reed, Suggs and Lewis. 3 surefire HOF. Ozzie has been able to consistently draft a core of great players. Started with Lewis and Ogden. Jamal Lewis and Boulware. Suggs, Reed and Ngata. Webb and hopefully a couple of guys from the two most recent drafts. Flacco and Rice. Pitta and Yanda. Grubbs. The Ravens do well consistently because they are rarely making wholesale changes to their core group of players. This past year was one of the biggest with the loss of Reed, Lewis and Boldin. Continuity is a very important component of success. The Ravens expect players to play a certain way and they have core veterans there to teach the newcomers.

On Polian, I think he is vastly overrated. He was fired from his last two jobs. Best ever GMs don't get fired. I cannot speak to his role in building the Bills as I did not follow it that closely but his results in Indy and Carolina were ok. In Indy he did a terrible job of putting a team around Manning. The oline and defense were atrocious year in and year out. Outside of Manning he basically put a two win team on the field. After Manning was injured he was exposed and fired. In Carolina he went with the quick fix free agency approach and had early success with Coughlin. The team quickly fell apart and he was fired after 3 years.

[LukeDaniel]

I guess the definition of "pan out" needs to be defined. However, 30% seems awfully low.

[TheSpiderWebb]

He definitely has one of the best success rates over the last 17 years. But yeah those drafts were pretty bad.

2004 especially, where Edwards was by a mile the best pick and he really didn't produce for us outside of maybe 18-20 games, then was gone. At least in 05 you had Clayton who was an okay number 2, just not worth his draft slot and Jason Brown who was great when he was here, just sucked when he left. Justin Green and Adam Terry both at least played some snaps for us. Sucks about Cody, in his maybe 8 snaps he looked pretty damn good.

[OhThePossibilities]

He definitely has one of the best success rates over the last 17 years. But yeah those drafts were pretty bad.

2004 especially, where Edwards was by a mile the best pick and he really didn't produce for us outside of maybe 18-20 games, then was gone. At least in 05 you had Clayton who was an okay number 2, just not worth his draft slot and Jason Brown who was great when he was here, just sucked when he left. Justin Green and Adam Terry both at least played some snaps for us. Sucks about Cody, in his maybe 8 snaps he looked pretty damn good.

I'd actually be willing to throw out '04 since there was no 1st rounder (thanks to the Kyle Boller pick) to begin with. They didn't pick until 51, where they picked Edwards. If you look at who could have been picked instead, there's maybe Darnell Dockett. I only say maybe because there's no way of knowing if he would have thrived in Baltimore.

In general, '04 wasn't a great draft, especially outside the 1st round.

[TheSpiderWebb]

Can't argue with that. Think the 1st rounder produced about as much pro bowlers as the rest of the rounds combined. We did sign B.J. Sams as an UDFA that year though, he was a decent return man for us for awhile.

[Losac]

In general, '04 wasn't a great draft, especially outside the 1st round.

I don't know if I'd agree with that. First round had some really good players (Eli Manning, Rapistberger, Larry Fitzgerald, Sean Taylor, Jonathan Vilma, Vince Wilfork, Philip Rivers, Steven Jackson) and the later rounds had some nice finds too: Jared Allen, Bob Sanders, Chris Cooley, Matt Schaub, Michael Turner.

[OhThePossibilities]

I don't know if I'd agree with that. First round had some really good players (Eli Manning, Rapistberger, Larry Fitzgerald, Sean Taylor, Jonathan Vilma, Vince Wilfork, Philip Rivers, Steven Jackson) and the later rounds had some nice finds too: Jared Allen, Bob Sanders, Chris Cooley, Matt Schaub, Michael Turner.

Hence why I said "outside of the first round," which is where all of the Ravens picks were due to trading the 1st pick to NE for Boller. Those 5 guys were nice finds, sure, but it's really a pretty thin class.

Also:

Bob Sanders - Ed Reed
Chris Cooley - Todd Heap
Matt Schaub - Boller (not that he was good, just that they had spent the big pick on him the year before)
Michael Turner - Jamal Lewis

[The Excellector]

GOTA has the right idea on this. I'm willing to bet that Ozzie would finish top 3.

[AirFlacco]

It is amazing the amount of success the Raven's have had without a QB. Most GMs would not survive that many years without a true franchise QB.

OZZIE'S MOTTO: DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS LIKE SB 35.

And look at what he got this off season - CANTY, SPEARS, HUFF, DUMERVIL PLUS
BRANDON WILLIAMS AND #1 PICK ELAM IN THE DRAFT in addition to #2 PICK
ARTHUR BROWN PLUS JOHN SIMON.

Someone posted a link a few years ago that 80% Ozzie's draftees were still in the NFL
more than any other GM. Not sure what that stat is now but I bet it's still hi.

[JimZipCode]

On Polian, I think he is vastly overrated. He was fired from his last two jobs. Best ever GMs don't get fired. I cannot speak to his role in building the Bills as I did not follow it that closely but his results in Indy and Carolina were ok. In Indy he did a terrible job of putting a team around Manning. The oline and defense were atrocious year in and year out. Outside of Manning he basically put a two win team on the field. After Manning was injured he was exposed and fired. In Carolina he went with the quick fix free agency approach and had early success with Coughlin. The team quickly fell apart and he was fired after 3 years.

Polian took three different teams to conf championship games. Two of them he built into consistent contenders.

Are we even having this conversation? The Bills won 4 straight AFC titles. Indy had 9 straight winning seasons and 11 of 12, plus 8 division titles. Oh, and a Super Bowl win. (I swear I just posted all this, within the past week.)

Yeah, Polian got old and the game passed him. That happens to everybody. Doesn't mean he wasn't great.

There are very few guys on the shortlist for possible mention as the greatest personnel guys of all time. Polian is one of them. Bobby Beathard is another. (Actually Beathard may be the obvious #1.) I'm not sure there is anyone else.