NBA playoffs

[NCRAVEN]

theres probably some truth in that, but I think his game is better than Hibbert. So while youd think the younger larger guy would be better simply because of athletic ability, his game doesnt allow him to be. He still only put up 11.9/8.3/2.6 to duncans 17.8/9.9/2.7. I dont really care if hes older, hes still better than Hibbert or Bosh. Back to back games is where his age shows, which luckily they dont have in the finals. Any one game though, im taking Duncan, If were talking about starting a team, id differ on that. I will say the longer the series goes im sure his age will show, but with 9-10 days of rest, he probably benefited from that the most. Whether his team as a whole did or not is yet to be seen.

I don't think he's better. I was speaking to the match up f Duncan/Hibbert vs. Bosh.

[JAB1985]

I don't think he's better. I was speaking to the match up f Duncan/Hibbert vs. Bosh.

Hes old and beat up, so i concede Hibbert is healthier at this point of their careers/seasons (bosh certainly isnt at the moment). however that doesnt seem to stop him from producing better. so im not sure im following. more likely to fall off or get injured? thats probably true but until he does i cant assume he will and when hes out there, hes simply better. I dont think Hibbert is known for his footwork or speed so him being younger i dont think really falls into the equation too much as far as comparing he and Duncan, despite their 11 years difference. Duncan averaged 18/14 against Indy, Hibbert 6/8 in those same games. If his age was a factor and Hibberts youth an advantage wouldnt that have shown up in their own games?

the only time Bosh faced Duncan this year, he didnt do poorly 23/8 (game winning 3) to duncans 17/12. I remember that game, and it wasnt typical for Bosh. probably his best game all season. I think he just happened to get hot when the team sat LBJ and Wade and played the offense through him.

[Raveninwoodlawn]

I just dont see it. Bosh plays soft, Duncan doesnt. I dont really care if Bosh weighed 255 and Duncan 235 its the style of play that really is the issue. part of the reason why Bosh only averaged 7 rebounds no matter who he was lining up against.

I don't doubt that Duncan is going to average more boards, but again, Hibbert was 3-4 inches taller and 30-40 pounds heavier than Bosh...that takes a big, big physical toll trying to guard someone that much stronger than you who does nothing but lean on you all game in the post.

Duncan is not going to do that. He's just not...his game isn't power and it never was...it's just skill. And that meshes more with what Bosh is than Hibbert.

I'm not saying I think Duncan is going to average 15 and 6...I think 20 and 10 is a good bet. I just see Bosh playing much better offensively when he isn't expending a ton of energy just fighting a much bigger and stronger man in Hibbert just for post position. He won't have to expend that much energy this series and I see Bosh producing much better and close to if not playing Duncan to a draw...he played much better throughout the playoffs (including a 20-19 game against another guy who is very good, but closer to Bosh's body type in Noah) until he got into what is a pure physical mismatch trying to fight Hibbert.

IMHO, it's way to easy to just say "Duncan is better than Hibbert so therefor, Duncan is going to dominate like Hibbert". It doesn't work that way...in fact the Heat and Spurs have played each other 4 times with Bosh and Duncan both playing and Bosh has thoroughly outplayed Duncan by the tune of 25-11 to 13-10.

[NCRAVEN]

Hes old and beat up, so i concede Hibbert is healthier at this point of their careers/seasons (bosh certainly isnt at the moment). however that doesnt seem to stop him from producing better. so im not sure im following. more likely to fall off or get injured? thats probably true but until he does i cant assume he will and when hes out there, hes simply better. I dont think Hibbert is known for his footwork or speed so him being younger i dont think really falls into the equation too much as far as comparing he and Duncan, despite their 11 years difference. Duncan averaged 18/14 against Indy, Hibbert 6/8 in those same games. If his age was a factor and Hibberts youth an advantage wouldnt that have shown up in their own games?

the only time Bosh faced Duncan this year, he didnt do poorly 23/8 (game winning 3) to duncans 17/12. I remember that game, and it wasnt typical for Bosh. probably his best game all season. I think he just happened to get hot when the team sat LBJ and Wade and played the offense through him.

JAB you're seriously over thinking this. All I am saying is Bosh should be more effective against Duncan than Hibbert because Hibbert is 26 (11 years younger), 2 inches taller and probably 20 - 30 lbs on Duncan. As a result I think Bosh should be more effective in this series. That's it.

[Raveninwoodlawn]

JAB you're seriously over thinking this. All I am saying is Bosh should be more effective against Duncan than Hibbert because Hibbert is 26 (11 years younger), 2 inches taller and probably 20 - 30 lbs on Duncan. As a result I think Bosh should be more effective in this series. That's it.

Yup.

Some players just have huge matchup advantages over select teams. Hibbert is an incredible matchup nightmare for Miami purely due to size. Every time Indy plays Miami, he is going to kick Miami's ass in the post because they don't have anybody big and strong enough to slow him down.

That doesn't mean that Duncan is going to enjoy the same success...they don't have anybody that is a matchup nightmare for Miami...in fact, they play a lot of small ball just like the Heat with Duncan at center.

[JAB1985]

I don't doubt that Duncan is going to average more boards, but again, Hibbert was 3-4 inches taller and 30-40 pounds heavier than Bosh...that takes a big, big physical toll trying to guard someone that much stronger than you who does nothing but lean on you all game in the post.

Duncan is not going to do that. He's just not...his game isn't power and it never was...it's just skill. And that meshes more with what Bosh is than Hibbert.

I'm not saying I think Duncan is going to average 15 and 6...I think 20 and 10 is a good bet. I just see Bosh playing much better offensively when he isn't expending a ton of energy just fighting a much bigger and stronger man in Hibbert just for post position. He won't have to expend that much energy this series and I see Bosh producing much better and close to if not playing Duncan to a draw...he played much better throughout the playoffs (including a 20-19 game against another guy who is very good, but closer to Bosh's body type in Noah) until he got into what is a pure physical mismatch trying to fight Hibbert.

IMHO, it's way to easy to just say "Duncan is better than Hibbert so therefor, Duncan is going to dominate like Hibbert". It doesn't work that way...in fact the Heat and Spurs have played each other 4 times with Bosh and Duncan both playing and Bosh has thoroughly outplayed Duncan by the tune of 25-11 to 13-10.

I Think you cherry picked your stat a little because outside that one game, he averaged 12 pts 6 rebs against the same Noah the rest of the series. His averages dropped -4 pts while rebounding has been the same in the playoffs against the likes of Noah Hibbert and Larry Sanders. Duncan has faced Gasol/Howard, Bogut and Gasol (two of the last 3 DPOY) with a -3reb change only.

Your stats against duncan, the last 4 times they faced off are correct. Over their careers, including when Bosh was better with toronto, Duncan wins by 3pts 2reb so really you can say it a few ways. Career says one, last 4 says another, this season says another.

I think youre undervaluing Duncans ability inside which was my main point. When called upon he has been that force to back guys down and play inside. If we dont agree on that than the point about the differences in their games is pretty much lost. As far as Hibbert wearing down Bosh more, thats probably true.

EDIT: which if this the main point you and NC are making we agree, just disagree on the effect it had on Bosh vs his actually ability. I dont think he played that much better in the other series. so while his numbers were atrocious that series it was only marginally better the other two against smallish finesse Centers which imo, Duncan is a lot more physical/stronger than.

Ultimately 20/10 is roughly his average and although Boshs numbers dipped in that series his playoff averages are down regardless. he averaged 13/8 the two series before his 11/4 against Indy. Im not sure he gets much better than the 12/7 hes averaged. The blue print on beating the Heat is there. Stopping Wade and Bosh is an easier task than stopping LBJ alone and no player in history has been able to win by themselves.

JAB you're seriously over thinking this. All I am saying is Bosh should be more effective against Duncan than Hibbert because Hibbert is 26 (11 years younger), 2 inches taller and probably 20 - 30 lbs on Duncan. As a result I think Bosh should be more effective in this series. That's it.

I dont think he will, because i dont think hes that good of a player. Noah isnt 20lbs and 2" taller and he had a poor series against him. Larry Sanders (who is larry sanders?) isnt taller or heavier either. I just dont think Bosh is going to step up his game. whether due to injury or by design he hasnt been much of a factor these playoffs and i dont expect that to change against Duncan.

[NCRAVEN]

I dont think he will, because i dont think hes that good of a player. Noah isnt 20lbs and 2" taller and he had a poor series against him. Larry Sanders (who is larry sanders?) isnt taller or heavier either. I just dont think Bosh is going to step up his game. whether due to injury or by design he hasnt been much of a factor these playoffs and i dont expect that to change against Duncan.

I think Bosh is a little over-rated myself. But strictly comparing his production in last series to this one, he shouldbe able to be more productive against Duncan than Hibbert.

[Kyle Cactus]

Can't wait for this series!

I've always pulled for the Duncan/Popovich Spurs teams. Every other time they've made the finals I've felt pretty confident they would win. I think this time will be tougher, which is part of the reason I'm so excited to watch it.

I'm loving the analysis of Duncan vs. Bosh by the way! I don't watch enough NBA to really weigh in on that level, so maybe I'll throw out a few questions...

I know Lebron can be used in a lot of different positions. Any insights on how they'll use him defensively in this series?

What will the Heat do to try and contain Parker?

[Raveninwoodlawn]

I Think you cherry picked your stat a little because outside that one game, he averaged 12 pts 6 rebs against the same Noah the rest of the series. His averages dropped -4 pts while rebounding has been the same in the playoffs against the likes of Noah Hibbert and Larry Sanders. Duncan has faced Gasol/Howard, Bogut and Gasol (two of the last 3 DPOY) with a -3reb change only.

Your stats against duncan, the last 4 times they faced off are correct. Over their careers, including when Bosh was better with toronto, Duncan wins by 3pts 2reb so really you can say it a few ways. Career says one, last 4 says another, this season says another.

I think youre undervaluing Duncans ability inside which was my main point. When called upon he has been that force to back guys down and play inside. If we dont agree on that than the point about the differences in their games is pretty much lost. As far as Hibbert wearing down Bosh more, thats probably true.

EDIT: which if this the main point you and NC are making we agree, just disagree on the effect it had on Bosh vs his actually ability. I dont think he played that much better in the other series. so while his numbers were atrocious that series it was only marginally better the other two against smallish finesse Centers which imo, Duncan is a lot more physical/stronger than.

Ultimately 20/10 is roughly his average and although Boshs numbers dipped in that series his playoff averages are down regardless. he averaged 13/8 the two series before his 11/4 against Indy. Im not sure he gets much better than the 12/7 hes averaged. The blue print on beating the Heat is there. Stopping Wade and Bosh is an easier task than stopping LBJ alone and no player in history has been able to win by themselves.



I dont think he will, because i dont think hes that good of a player. Noah isnt 20lbs and 2" taller and he had a poor series against him. Larry Sanders (who is larry sanders?) isnt taller or heavier either. I just dont think Bosh is going to step up his game. whether due to injury or by design he hasnt been much of a factor these playoffs and i dont expect that to change against Duncan.

Sure I cherry picked a little, but even in that Bulls series, even averaging 12, he shot over 50 percent in all but one game so he was effective, just didn't get many shots. As far as a drop...Howard is nowhere near the defender he was 2 years ago and Bogut is a shell of himself. Gasol obviously is very good defensively, but of the best defensive centers in these playoffs, I'd argue that Bosh actually faced better interior defenders...Noah and Hibbert are on Gasol's level and Larry Sanders is actually a very good defender that had many people wondering how he wasn't on the all defensive team this year.

And I'm taking the last 4 times because they are more relevant than 6 or 7 years ago when Duncan was in or just leaving his prime...he's not in his prime so I don't see how or why you'd take much of that into account.

As for the blueprint to beat the Heat, I'd argue the Grizzlies are the matchup that would hit the Heat harder...they slow the pace down and the post is the first option...and Gasol and Z-Bo would have a field day on the glass...they are an exact replica of the Pacers. The Spurs however play at the same fast pace the Heat thrive in, and their best big physically matches up well with the Heat's best big. Bosh's numbers went down primarily due to lack of touches...not being made ineffective by the opposition (obviously except the Pacers series). Now, if the Heat ignore him for long stretches like they have, obviously it will be an issue...but I don't see that happening...Miami got away from sharing the ball last series because they went up against the best elite defense last series and the Spurs are a mediocre defensive team.

Miami's kryptonite is against those big, slow, defensive teams. They thrive against fast paced offensive teams (which the Spurs are every bit of) like OKC, San Antonio, Brooklyn etc.

Bottom line IMHO, is that yes, the Pacers gave the blueprint. But the Spurs don't have the personnel to pull it off.

Now the Spurs can definitely beat Miami, but it's not going to be in any way resembling the way the Pacers (or Bulls, or Grizzlies) would.

[Raveninwoodlawn]

Can't wait for this series!

I've always pulled for the Duncan/Popovich Spurs teams. Every other time they've made the finals I've felt pretty confident they would win. I think this time will be tougher, which is part of the reason I'm so excited to watch it.

I'm loving the analysis of Duncan vs. Bosh by the way! I don't watch enough NBA to really weigh in on that level, so maybe I'll throw out a few questions...

I know Lebron can be used in a lot of different positions. Any insights on how they'll use him defensively in this series?

What will the Heat do to try and contain Parker?

They'll probably try and hide Lebron a bit during the game as they don't want him getting in foul trouble...but I fully expect that he will be on Parker at times in crunch time.

The Heat will likely throw different guys on Parker...he'll see some of Chalmers, Cole, Wade and Lebron.

[JAB1985]

I think Bosh is a little over-rated myself. But strictly comparing his production in last series to this one, he shouldbe able to be more productive against Duncan than Hibbert.

To what degree? RiW says to equal out Duncan while claiming 20/10 isnt out of the question for Tim. I dont see Bosh getting anywhere near that. is it just better that 11/4? Thats fair enough. I can say 13/7 is his average in playoffs and not expect him to get more than that.

I get what you guys are saying, and theoretically I see where that makes sense. Ive heard from multiple Heat Fans (including ones that thought the Warriors were a worse matchup for the Heat ). Believe me although we disagree, i understand matchups. I just think this is a bigger one than you guys. Saying a physical specimen like Hibbert changes things is legitimate and a guy will test his rebounding, stamin, etc. Then a guy like Barkley @ 6'6"(.. or 6'-4" if you believe your eyes) comes in and blows that theory to shit. Duncan obviously isnt the "round mound", but he is considerably larger/stronger stil than Bosh (who if im reading properly bulked up to 250 in his Raptors days, but cut back down to 235 - LINK).

Can't wait for this series!

I've always pulled for the Duncan/Popovich Spurs teams. Every other time they've made the finals I've felt pretty confident they would win. I think this time will be tougher, which is part of the reason I'm so excited to watch it.

I'm loving the analysis of Duncan vs. Bosh by the way! I don't watch enough NBA to really weigh in on that level, so maybe I'll throw out a few questions...

I know Lebron can be used in a lot of different positions. Any insights on how they'll use him defensively in this series?

What will the Heat do to try and contain Parker?

In the crunch time of close games, LBJ probably guards Parker, I would think unless Duncan is going off. Basically whoever is the biggest threat. Its a good question though, probably Kawhi Leonard for most of the game. I like Leonard but LBJ wont be effected much this series. Parker should have a mismatch with all of the Heats PGs and although I think Duncan has a good series, I wont go as far to say itll be the difference. I truly think it comes down to the bench and/or Wades health.

[mmi16]

Had the feeling that the Heat were turning their game on and off at will.