Ravens are building a system, not a team of individual players

[Hammerhead]

Major props to the OP who is spot on as far as he went. We can go farther still:

Every team is grappling with the implications of the CBA, whence rookies are cheap & stay cheap but hit the market for the big payday once their first contract is up. At first blush the Ravens' m.o. of finding & developing "gems in the rough" would seem to be gone with the dodo, because no sooner have you've gotten a player cut & polished than a team with more cap room pays more than you're able (or willing) for him. Kruger, Ellerbe, even Cary Williams to an extent follow this pattern, & right now it's painful.

Instead what it means is that you have to accelerate the throughput. That low-end acquisition needs to be playing at near-optimal by the middle of his second year, the end of it at worst--because you need to sign his potential low-end replacements & start developing them the very next year. There won't be much leeway for experiments that don't pan out (e.g., turning Kruger into a DE).

The good news is that comp picks give you more opportunities to hit on a low-end gem; the bad news is that they show up a year after the player you need to replace has left. This forces you to stagger your developing (non-cornerstone) roster: For example, suppose you're losing an OLB to free agency but you have a WR who's got one more year on his rookie contract; then you use the comp pick you get for the OLB to take the WR's replacement for grooming while he's still on the roster.

Ideally you'd want a 1-year offset, drafting a player to develop for a particular position while the starter is going into his 2nd year, so that while the incumbent leaves you have a fully viable replacement under contract. I don't think that's quite feasible, which is where free agency comes in.

I anticipate the future of Ravens free agency (once the system settles in fully, which may take a year or 2) will look very much like Corey Graham: players from the back ends of rosters who fill very specific niches or who are looking for the opportunity to broaden their resume. (Actually the archetypal guy here is Ayanbedejo, who came here as a ST ace because they offered him the chance to play some LB as well.) Maybe they haven't been developed properly, maybe they just got lost in the numbers game--the Ravens will find them & get good value from them.

This is not going to happen in a day, or in one offseason. Right now the Ravens have some gaping holes to fill (LT, ILB, FS, NT) & drafting day-1 starters from the 32nd spot is a complete crap shoot, so they may need to $pend $eriou$ ca$h to plug them. (The other type of FA the Ravens might pursue right now is a solid but unspectacular veteran on the downside of his career, amenable to a reasonable last payday & a shot at a ring, to plug an immediate hole for a couple of years & help develop the young backups--Bobbie Williams, Andre Gurode, even Bryant McKinnie). But once those needs are taken care of, the continuous-feed operation will get cranking.

Absolutely in agreement 100%. And that is a great analysis of how this system has to work.

The stars of this system are not going to be specific players (beyond the cornerstone guys). They will be the scouts, the GM, the HC, the coordinators and position coaches. If they can cut the development time or increase the yield, they will have cornered an advantage that can survive cap cuts and roster purges. I think this will be life in the new CBA. The teams that do this can develop dynasties. The teams that overpay FAs or draft unintelligently cannot.

Somebody needs to write the football equivalent of Moneyball and fully flesh out this system. Maybe they already have and I just haven't read it yet...

[RavenMadness]

I am remarkably calm... HH and Loba make great sense....

Good read!!

[seraph]

Torrey will be one of those "cornerstones" that we pay top dollar to.

The Ravens don't value receivers and Torrey won't get paid unless he puts up better season production.

[RavenMadness]

Baltimore Ravens ‏@Ravens RT @mortreport: Don't underestimate Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome. He always has a plan

[BigPlayReceiver]

The Ravens don't value receivers and Torrey won't get paid unless he puts up better season production.

This. Like I said yesterday in another thread. Torrey can be as good as he wants to be.

[Hammerhead]

The other thing to note is that in this system, a big FA signing is usually a sign of failure and not a success. If we understand that and what the overall plan is, days like today and yesterday will be much easier to take.

[lobachevsky]

The other thing to note is that in this system, a big FA signing is usually a sign of failure and not a success. If we understand that and what the overall plan is, days like today and yesterday will be much easier to take.

IMO that's only true once the initial jitter damps out of the system & it's operating in stable mode. At that point a big FA signing is an admission that none of the candidates for that position panned out (which could be a failure of evaluation, a failure of development, or crappy luck in the form of a freak injury). But when you have a critical gap & no viable candidates on the roster, you might need to sign a pricey FA for stability so you can start the long-term process.

I'm thinking LT.

[Hammerhead]

IMO that's only true once the initial jitter damps out of the system & it's operating in stable mode. At that point a big FA signing is an admission that none of the candidates for that position panned out (which could be a failure of evaluation, a failure of development, or crappy luck in the form of a freak injury). But when you have a critical gap & no viable candidates on the roster, you might need to sign a pricey FA for stability so you can start the long-term process.

I'm thinking LT.

True. That's why I temper it with a "usually. " I think the Mason and Rolle signings were pretty good in their time. The ex Texans were all great also but those were good market values. Not like the deals we saw today.

[BigPlayReceiver]

Teams that "win" free agency (in the media sense of the word) don't win SB's.
Yet, teams that win SBs, sometimes do so because of their FAs. But hardly ever "splash" FAs.
There was Brees to NO, but that took three years IIRC. Plaxico to NYG took a few years also.

Once in a generation, a Deion Sanders (definitely splashy) comes along and his team wins the SB right away b/c of his impact.
Barely more often than that, a has-been, re-tread, disappointment or aged-vet comes along, and is an immediate contributer to his team winning the SB: Darrin Sharper and Jacoby Jones.

Folks in Baltimore should know the deal. Draft well and plug the holes with affordable FAs = success.

Having said that one of the countless back stories of our improbable SB win is that we "got away with" having a very sub-par 2010 draft, where we only ever got consistently solid performances from a 4th and a 6th rounder (Pitta and A Jones). On top of that, three guys from the top halves of the 2009 and 2011 drafts missed considerable time during the season (Webb - 3rd rd 2009, Jimmy and Jah - 1st and 3rd rd 2011). And on top of THAT, only one guy from the 2007 draft (Yanda) and only two guys from the 2008 draft (Joe and Ray) were still on the team.

That's one hell of a system plus some incredible leadership from players, coaches and execs alike.

[RavensRule21215]

I don't fundamentally disagree with the OP, but my concern is LT. It doesn't have to be Jake Long, but it can't be Michael Oher. Once you invest heavily in your QB you have to protect him or you've wasted your money. Center is also a concern. Even if they go with Gino, who is the backup if he gets hurt?

[conviction]

Teams that "win" free agency (in the media sense of the word) don't win SB's.
Yet, teams that win SBs, sometimes do so because of their FAs. But hardly ever "splash" FAs.
There was Brees to NO, but that took three years IIRC. Plaxico to NYG took a few years also.

Once in a generation, a Deion Sanders (definitely splashy) comes along and his team wins the SB right away b/c of his impact.
Barely more often than that, a has-been, re-tread, disappointment or aged-vet comes along, and is an immediate contributer to his team winning the SB: Darrin Sharper and Jacoby Jones.

Folks in Baltimore should know the deal. Draft well and plug the holes with affordable FAs = success.

Having said that one of the countless back stories of our improbable SB win is that we "got away with" having a very sub-par 2010 draft, where we only ever got consistently solid performances from a 4th and a 6th rounder (Pitta and A Jones). On top of that, three guys from the top halves of the 2009 and 2011 drafts missed considerable time during the season (Webb - 3rd rd 2009, Jimmy and Jah - 1st and 3rd rd 2011). And on top of THAT, only one guy from the 2007 draft (Yanda) and only two guys from the 2008 draft (Joe and Ray) were still on the team.

That's one hell of a system plus some incredible leadership from players, coaches and execs alike.

I believe the evidence of our effective way of doing business is found by the performance of our free agents. Our system can inflate value: Ed hartwell, adalius Thomas, Bart Scott. I think while Ellerbe is good player he will not play the expectations of a 7 million contract, add Kruger to the list. And then of course we get rid of people like mason, heap, McGhee, Gregg, jj, redding, etc.

Those players listed produce and should get paid because they are a known commodity, but they produce because our core players and coaches put players in the best place to achieve thus we can replace them with more cost friendly options. Ingenious really.

In Ozzie I trust, we will scout well and maximize our 12 picks of well. This roster will look much different come training camp, I think we can plug holes on D now, but I am most concerned with LT. I don't think we need great play from the position but at least average where we can put Kelechi and Oher at their most natural positions

[RavensQB]

Just one thing to say. Some people on here brought this little GEM to mind.