2014 Cap...$70.9 committed to 6 players

[bmorecareful]

I was looking at the 2014 cap too this weekend. Besides Suggs and Ngata, the multi-fold cap increases of Webb, Joe and Ray also kick in for 2014. Decisions will definitely have to be made. The challenge has been and will remain, how do you "replace" (talent-wise, not roster-wise) Suggs and Ngata when you consistently draft south of pick #24?

I think this is a very good question and the answer is that Ozzie will continue to follow his usual M.O.: take the best player available at your spot PARTICULARLY if non-football issues have driven said player below where his football talent dictates he should go. Throw the "hierarchy of needs" out the window and just take pure talent.

So when we think about the draft and how to lay out our mocks, remember that of 31 teams picking in front of the Ravens, there are going to be several of them (say 10) that "reach" for a player for whatever reason. By "reach," I don't necessarily mean a BAD pick, but just a player that isn't the best pure football talent--i.e. a player that fills a more immediate need, has better "intangibles," is more of a pure freak athlete, etc.

Picking at #32 the Ravens are going to have a shot to draft a guy that should have gone at #20. If that guy fell because of a questionable medical history, off-the-field problems, or bad workouts... the Ravens should take the risk and just pull the trigger. Sure, you could get a Sergio Kindle, but you could also get a Terrell Suggs. They're going to have to take chances and they're going to have to pass on filling crucial needs in the name of getting top talent.

I could easily see the Ravens letting all their FAs walk and coming out of the draft not filling ANY of what we THINK are the most pressing "needs". Oh, how this board would scream and howl if the Ravens went into 2013 spending their top 3 picks on a WR, DE/OLB, and TE, and starting Cody at NT and McClain/Bynes at ILB. But that's how you build a roster long-term; take your lumps where you can afford to take them while you upgrade with the best overall talent.

[ballhawk]

So what do they do? Cut ngata and suggs next year, boldin this year? Then find a LT and just start spending all our high picks on offensive skill positions? If they are so strapped next year, why not go all in for 2013 and blow it up next year?

[pslholder96]

So what do they do? Cut ngata and suggs next year, boldin this year? Then find a LT and just start spending all our high picks on offensive skill positions? If they are so strapped next year, why not go all in for 2013 and blow it up next year?

At the year end press conference Steve B and Ozzie were adamant that this was the path they did not want to follow.

[GOTA]

But that's exactly what Ozzie said they WOULDN'T do.

Don't make short term decisions and try to win another one...position yourself to win multiple and keep the team in contention.

I guess that's the only way I can swallow losing all our FAs and Boldin...we do that now, we get young guys in place to replace them and continue our constant fluidity. However, be prepared, it could mean a short time of average performance.

I know Ozzie said that but If we're going to lose our 2 best defensive players anyway then you might as well go for it this year. It's one thing to lose non core players like Kruger and Cary Williams. Once you start losing those key guys who you really can't replace you need to change your thinking. If every player over 30 is gone then it really is a rebuild and expectations need to be lessened.

[bacchys]

So let's fast forward to the 2014 season.

In 2014, Suggs' cap hit is 12.4 million, and terminating his contract will incur 4.6 million in dead money with a total cap savings of 7.8 million by cutting Suggs before the 2014 season. Suggs is a very real potential cap casualty after this season.

In 2014, Ngata's cap hit is 16 million, and terminating his contract will incur 15 million in dead money with a total cap savings of 1 million by cutting Ngata before the 2014 season. I'd say Ngata is less likely to be cut unless his performance drops off significantly.

I think a lot of that is going to depend on how effective Ozzie, Harbaugh, and the rest of the Ravens organization involved in these decisions think Suggs and/or Ngata are going to be over the next 3-4 years. If you think they are still going to play at a high level going into their mid-30s, you'll look to extend them and lower the cap hit. If not, you see if they'll take less money or cut them.

It sucks, but that's the kind of decisions the cap forces a team to make.

[LukeDaniel]

Suggs is one year removed from being universally regarded as the best defensive player in the league.

I think his situation is a bit different than Boldin, because the $6 million headed to Boldin in 2013 will be going to an above average player who is not even in the top 10-15 at his position in the league. The $7.8 that the Ravens would save in 2014 by cutting Suggs would go to a player who is one of the top 10 defensive players in the league potentially. We will learn a lot about Suggs in 2013. It's a big year for him contractually and from a HOF worthiness standpoint.

Suggs has been a very durable player in his year, so even entering his age 32 season, he should still possess a lot of value.

[bmorecareful]

I know Ozzie said that but If we're going to lose our 2 best defensive players anyway then you might as well go for it this year. It's one thing to lose non core players like Kruger and Cary Williams. Once you start losing those key guys who you really can't replace you need to change your thinking. If every player over 30 is gone then it really is a rebuild and expectations need to be lessened.

I really don't understand this mentality at all. It boggles my mind, frankly, to just flippantly declare guys like Kruger and Cary "non-core" while both of them were INARGUABLY more impactful on the 2012 season than Suggs and Ngata. Suggs missed 8 games (team was 5-1 before he came off PUP) and was pretty much invisible in all but 2. After Haloti started off the year on a good pace he got banged up and wasn't even our best defensive lineman for most of the 2nd half of the season (didn't play a snap vs. Oakland in one of our best games of the year.)

I don't disagree that the team is going to survive without Kruger and Cary, but the same is true for Ngata and Suggs. Hell, if the Ravens can win the Super Bowl in 2012 with Suggs, Ngata, Reed, and Ray all being shells of themselves... they're not going to fall apart without those guys. End of story.

The ONLY player who is INDISPENSABLE to the Ravens' success at this point is Joe Flacco, and he's locked up long-term, so at worst the Ravens are in the same position as all the other elite teams in the NFL; they have an elite QB and need to put complementary pieces around him to win.

[NCRAVEN]

I really don't understand this mentality at all. It boggles my mind, frankly, to just flippantly declare guys like Kruger and Cary "non-core" while both of them were INARGUABLY more impactful on the 2012 season than Suggs and Ngata. Suggs missed 8 games (team was 5-1 before he came off PUP) and was pretty much invisible in all but 2. After Haloti started off the year on a good pace he got banged up and wasn't even our best defensive lineman for most of the 2nd half of the season (didn't play a snap vs. Oakland in one of our best games of the year.)

I don't disagree that the team is going to survive without Kruger and Cary, but the same is true for Ngata and Suggs. Hell, if the Ravens can win the Super Bowl in 2012 with Suggs, Ngata, Reed, and Ray all being shells of themselves... they're not going to fall apart without those guys. End of story.

The ONLY player who is INDISPENSABLE to the Ravens' success at this point is Joe Flacco, and he's locked up long-term, so at worst the Ravens are in the same position as all the other elite teams in the NFL; they have an elite QB and need to put complementary pieces around him to win.

Do you think Suggs had any impact on the overall improvement of the defense?

[BigPlayReceiver]

I could easily see the Ravens letting all their FAs walk and coming out of the draft not filling ANY of what we THINK are the most pressing "needs". Oh, how this board would scream and howl if the Ravens went into 2013 spending their top 3 picks on a WR, DE/OLB, and TE, and starting Cody at NT and McClain/Bynes at ILB. But that's how you build a roster long-term; take your lumps where you can afford to take them while you upgrade with the best overall talent.

With history as a guide for the Ravens, the EOS presser blows this approach up. Or so that's the likelihood.

However, that's how I would run my franchise. The short-term risk is having strong talent that seldom hits the field and dealing with some painful weak spots across my 22; but long-term benefis are that I'd have quality players for which to acquire additional draft picks, and I wouldn't be stuck in a position of ohhhh let's say possibly looking at having only one healthy, talent-questionable ILB on the roster after the FA period.

I don't disagree that the team is going to survive without Kruger and Cary, but the same is true for Ngata and Suggs. Hell, if the Ravens can win the Super Bowl in 2012 with Suggs, Ngata, Reed, and Ray all being shells of themselves... they're not going to fall apart without those guys. End of story.

The ONLY player who is INDISPENSABLE to the Ravens' success at this point is Joe Flacco, and he's locked up long-term, so at worst the Ravens are in the same position as all the other elite teams in the NFL; they have an elite QB and need to put complementary pieces around him to win.

Well stated and supports a true BPA philosophy.

[Bhcforlife]

I really think what they do with Suggs and Ngata going forward depends a lot on how they play this coming season. Ngata has not been an elite player for the past two years and Suggs is an unknown as far as how he's going to be fully recovered from his injury. However if both play like they are (or were) capable of, are they really going to look to cut them?

[Bigfish]

IMO, Suggs seems to be the obvious choice to do something to lower his cap hit in 2014 because his contract expires then and we would only have 1 year of dead money. I think a lot depends on how well he plays next year after this years injury plagued season. If released that would leave us with 7.8m of possible savings and 4.6m of dead money in 2014. He'll be 31 next year and could be extended to lower his cap number.

16m is a huge cap number for Ngata in 2014 and 2015. He's a monster but has had a couple of years where he was slowed by injuries later in the season. Of the 16m, 8.5 can be saved leaving 7.5 of dead money. He needs to play less snaps to stay healthy but has also hinted at not playing much longer. We'll see how 2013 goes for him but it is possible it's his last year leaving us with 7.5m of dead money for 2 years. Of all of them, his giant contract is certain to have the biggest impact.

I like Ray Rice, but I never liked his contract. He's signed through 2016 and if he were let go would carry a lot of dead money through it all. Consider in 2014 his cap hit is going to be 8.75m and Pierce is going to be 700k. To me, his production would be the easiest to replace.

One good thing is this year we have 7.5m of dead money mostly from Lewis and Birk that we won't have next year to at least partially offset all of this. The team cap is supposed to increase in 2015 which will also provide some relief.

The interesting thing about all of these big contracts we have with Suggs, Webb, Rice and Ngata is we just won the Super Bowl and aside from Ngata anchoring the line, Webb was absent, Suggs was ineffective and Rice fumbled the ball down in the playoffs. The 49ers running success after Ngata's injury in the Super Bowl showed how important he was to our defense.

[GOTA]

I really don't understand this mentality at all. It boggles my mind, frankly, to just flippantly declare guys like Kruger and Cary "non-core" while both of them were INARGUABLY more impactful on the 2012 season than Suggs and Ngata. Suggs missed 8 games (team was 5-1 before he came off PUP) and was pretty much invisible in all but 2. After Haloti started off the year on a good pace he got banged up and wasn't even our best defensive lineman for most of the 2nd half of the season (didn't play a snap vs. Oakland in one of our best games of the year.)

I don't disagree that the team is going to survive without Kruger and Cary, but the same is true for Ngata and Suggs. Hell, if the Ravens can win the Super Bowl in 2012 with Suggs, Ngata, Reed, and Ray all being shells of themselves... they're not going to fall apart without those guys. End of story.

The ONLY player who is INDISPENSABLE to the Ravens' success at this point is Joe Flacco, and he's locked up long-term, so at worst the Ravens are in the same position as all the other elite teams in the NFL; they have an elite QB and need to put complementary pieces around him to win.

If you really believe that then why not push to get rid of Suggs this season? Why even sign a free agent, including our own, to anything but a very short term deal?

If Ozzie didn't believe that there were particular key players worth keeping he wouldn't be interested in paying them so much money. The reason why the Ravens are in this position with cap space next season is because Ozzie felt these were guys he needed to keep on the team at a very high cost which means he sees them as core players.