What are our chances of repeating as SB champs?

[AirFlacco]

I'm not a big fan of our chances...I think this will be a bit of a reloading year and its very possible with our cap situation and number of holes on our roster that we could take a step back...I wouldn't be surprised if we had an 8-8 type of year.

But I'd expect us to be right back at it if we do suffer a year like that.

Hell man, we lost all those guys last year, more than any other team and still won the SB. See extra comp picks thread
We're bound to lose more this year.

Still, like Billick said, a millions things have to go right just to get in the SB. We don't know who or how many injuries
we will have.

[Dade]

Chances are good as any. We should make the playoffs, but from there it really is a crap shoot.

[Rxdoxx]

In theory I like 1/32 = 3.125%
But my mind multiplies it by 2 3.125% X 2 = 6.25% because that is the chances of making the super bowl (2 teams do make it... then its 50%)

It is not just winning it, it is making it back there.... there are examples of teams that won/were there and didn't even make the playoffs the next year.
88 Cincy
90 Broncos
94 Bills
99 Falcons
01 Giants
02 Rams
03 Raiders
04 Panthers
05 Eagles
07 Bears
Thats 20 - 25% of the SuperBowlers not even making the playoffs.

We can add reasons.... every team brings its best A game against the champs..... parity scheduling..... player/brain trust raiding by others.....

Right now my long term hopes are to just make the playoffs and get one win.... then we enjoy the crap-shoot ride like we just came through (percentages? what were the percentages of Flacco's mile high punt to Jacoby?)
6% chance to even make it back there? I have no idea of what a lot of the cards we will even have in our deck to play with will be, other than it will total 53.... but 6% is the number crunch to return.

[pslholder96]

I won't put a percentage on it but our odds of repeating are very slim. I do like our chances to make the playoffs again. We are definately built to win next year but not necessarily the superbowl. Our roster is going to change dramatically and there'a a lot of leadership we are losing. That might hurt us come playoff time. Let's hope our other leaders step up (Flacco, Rice, Suggs, Reed if he's still around).

[Raveninwoodlawn]

Hell man, we lost all those guys last year, more than any other team and still won the SB. See extra comp picks thread
We're bound to lose more this year.

Still, like Billick said, a millions things have to go right just to get in the SB. We don't know who or how many injuries
we will have.

Well, the fact is that repeating with the exact same team is extremely hard.

We are losing some significant leadership and who knows how soon the draft picks will be ready to step in...if at all?

I'm not saying we are going into a tail spin and a 2-3 year rebuilding mode...I just think that this may be the year we miss the playoffs while we finish going through our transition.

[saintmatthew]

In theory I like 1/32 = 3.125%
But my mind multiplies it by 2 3.125% X 2 = 6.25% because that is the chances of making the super bowl (2 teams do make it... then its 50%)

It is not just winning it, it is making it back there.... there are examples of teams that won/were there and didn't even make the playoffs the next year.
88 Cincy
90 Broncos
94 Bills
99 Falcons
01 Giants
02 Rams
03 Raiders
04 Panthers
05 Eagles
07 Bears
Thats 20 - 25% of the SuperBowlers not even making the playoffs.

We can add reasons.... every team brings its best A game against the champs..... parity scheduling..... player/brain trust raiding by others.....

Right now my long term hopes are to just make the playoffs and get one win.... then we enjoy the crap-shoot ride like we just came through (percentages? what were the percentages of Flacco's mile high punt to Jacoby?)
6% chance to even make it back there? I have no idea of what a lot of the cards we will even have in our deck to play with will be, other than it will total 53.... but 6% is the number crunch to return.

Dude, the '94 Bills were coming off their 4th straight Superbowl appearance.

[Ngata Da Vida]

Very uphill, but not impossible.

One scenario I could definitely see playing out would be what happened to the 96/97 Packers - win one year, make it and lose the next. I think the challenges from the NFC will be more formidable than the AFC.

[AirFlacco]

Dude, the '94 Bills were coming off their 4th straight Superbowl appearance.

And they never won.

[alienrace]

The 1 in 32 chance notion is just stupid. That's saying that all teams are equal, and we certainly know they are not.

[ballhawk]

Hard to say until we see what the roster is going to look like. As it stands now we potentially have holes at LT, DT, MLB, FS. I'm pretty worried about the defense. But with 11 picks in the draft and a savvy FO, I think Ozzie can make enough moves that we should contend for the division again. That's the first goal.

[Spider Webb]

Hard to say until we see what the roster is going to look like. As it stands now we potentially have holes at LT, DT, MLB, FS. I'm pretty worried about the defense. But with 11 picks in the draft and a savvy FO, I think Ozzie can make enough moves that we should contend for the division again. That's the first goal.

Yep. If you win the division, you get a home playoff game. I want to see Flacco with two home playoff games next year.

[AirFlacco]

The teams are more equal than in the pre-cap 90s. That makes repeating very difficult. GB thought they were going
back with Aaron Rogers. That was a great team. Saints thought they were going back with Brees. That was a great
team.

The SB 35 Champs thought they were going back with Ray. That was a great team with one of the best defenses in
history but Jamal went down first week of camp.

A million things have to go right. Parity is what Pete Rozelle always wanted. In the 60s you had GB and Colts
dominating the league. GB was last team to win 3 world titles in a row back in the 60s. Colts were second NFL
team to go to Super bowl.