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Thread: Who to keep

  1. #97
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    Re: Who to keep



    What is Ellerbe's likely price tag?

    I keep hearing upwards of 20MM for Flacco, and 9MM for Kruger. But I haven't heard a ballpark for Ellerbe yet.

    Is Reed's market going to be the 7MM he got this year (I think it was 7.....)?
    No one likes us, and we don't care.




  2. #98
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    Re: Who to keep

    Ellerbe will be lucky to get 5. ILBs aren't making too much these days.
    "When questioned, the Elders explained that they were in search of magical powers. However, they're actually searching for the whereabouts of a certain ring. This ring is a legendary treasure that long ago was known to exist"




  3. #99

    Re: Who to keep

    Quote Originally Posted by NC Raven View Post
    What is Ellerbe's likely price tag?

    I keep hearing upwards of 20MM for Flacco, and 9MM for Kruger. But I haven't heard a ballpark for Ellerbe yet.

    Is Reed's market going to be the 7MM he got this year (I think it was 7.....)?
    I think Ellerbe's ceiling is probably in the Stephen Tulloch/Curtis Lofton range (5/25 or 5/27 respectively), so that's 5m per year. He probably can't expect that much given the big durability questions that he has yet to answer. I would think his final contract would be in the 4/18 range, which FWIW is higher than Jameel McClain's 3/10.5 deal he signed last year.

    Ed Reed's previous deal was just under 6m a year average, although it was heavily backloaded with high base salaries. He's wanted a raise on those numbers for years now, and I certainly don't think he deserves a raise. Can he expect to see 7m a year on his next contract? Maybe... that would be higher than the safety franchise tag number. It would be very hard for the Ravens to get something like 2 years/14m done... it would be hard to make that contract cap-friendly.




  4. #100

    Re: Who to keep

    Top two priorities (after Joe) are Ellerbe and Anquan.

    We don't win the SB without them.




  5. #101

    Re: Who to keep

    Quote Originally Posted by Ravenalytics View Post
    Top two priorities (after Joe) are Ellerbe and Anquan.

    We don't win the SB without them.
    For me the absolute top priority for the Ravens beyond a Flacco deal is to get good to decent LT. Joe is a great QB and has shown that with a Oline that can give him a reasonable amount of time to throw he can pick teams apart. Keeping him healthy and on the field and making sure he has optimal conditions to do his thing have to be a priority IMO. You do what you have to in order to protect your franchise QB. Oher is not the answer. This year showed that clearly. He is fine at RT IMO but at LT he leaves a lot to be desired.

    While I think McKinney played great during the playoff run and deserves some consideration if all else fails, I just have to wonder how much you can trust the guy to show and maintain himself physically to play 16 games and the playoffs at a high level. My feeling is had he started 16 games prior to the playoffs he would not have played at the level he did. Thats speculation on my part but I do think his play as a starter last year (2011) curtailed as the season progressed...least thats my memory of it. Correct me if I am wrong there. I am all for drafting a guy who can develop but I still would be worried about counting on McKinney all year at LT

    Beyond the LT position I think that keeping Boldin is essential. Hopefully if we get Flacco done they can restructure/extend Boldin and maybe if it can help the cap Jacoby Jones as well. I hate to see Leach go but it may be hard to keep him. On the defensive side of the ball Ellerbe and Reed are the two guys I would love to see back. May be hard to make that happen also.
    A linebacker's job is to knock out running backs, to knock out receivers, to chase the football,
    -Ray Lewis




  6. #102
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    Re: Who to keep

    I'm sure we'll extend Boldin to lower his 2013 cap number. Not worried about that one.

    Ellerbee will get signed, not worried there either.

    To me the big decision is Kruger vs Reed. I've been looking at Ravor's spreadsheet for the 2013 cap figures, and it looks like we can pretty much keep one or the other, but not both, depending on their demands. (This is based on some assumptions, like cutting Bobbie Williams, cutting Leach, Birk retiring, BA retiring, and restructuring 2 of these 3 deals -- Suggs, Ngata and/or Boldin, and assuming Flacco's deal will be setup to have a 2013 cap figure below $9M).

    If both Kruger and Reed want north of $7MM (and the rumor on Kruger is 9MM+), we can only keep one, and even then, only if we think it's good value for money. In other words, we might choose to let them both walk, even if we could afford one of them.

    As somebody pointed out, Reed's franchise tag is under 7, so if we had to do that, we could, though what effect that would have on Reed is hard to say. He might retire if we tag him, who knows.
    No one likes us, and we don't care.




  7. #103

    Re: Who to keep

    Quote Originally Posted by NC Raven View Post
    I'm sure we'll extend Boldin to lower his 2013 cap number. Not worried about that one.

    Ellerbee will get signed, not worried there either.

    To me the big decision is Kruger vs Reed. I've been looking at Ravor's spreadsheet for the 2013 cap figures, and it looks like we can pretty much keep one or the other, but not both, depending on their demands. (This is based on some assumptions, like cutting Bobbie Williams, cutting Leach, Birk retiring, BA retiring, and restructuring 2 of these 3 deals -- Suggs, Ngata and/or Boldin, and assuming Flacco's deal will be setup to have a 2013 cap figure below $9M).

    If both Kruger and Reed want north of $7MM (and the rumor on Kruger is 9MM+), we can only keep one, and even then, only if we think it's good value for money. In other words, we might choose to let them both walk, even if we could afford one of them.

    As somebody pointed out, Reed's franchise tag is under 7, so if we had to do that, we could, though what effect that would have on Reed is hard to say. He might retire if we tag him, who knows.

    Wrong... Reed's tag would be around $9m. The safety tag may be under $7m, but the franchise tag guarantees you a 20% raise over your previous cap number.

    Honestly, JKruger vs Reed... Neither. Neither will be worth what they will take at this point in time.




  8. #104

    Re: Who to keep

    Quote Originally Posted by Boulderraven View Post
    In Vegas the Steelers and Ravens are both 10-1 for the SB. Vegas knows what it is doing.


    Ps. I would not take either of the future odds as a gambler. Those aren't bargains.
    Yes they do, they know, no matter what a lot of money gets put on the steelers, and that no matter what, not much is placed on the Ravens. IF the bettingpublic were completely rational and not fan based, that would likely be 15:1 Steelrs and 7:1 Ravens, or even further apart.

    Look t that list of odds... I bet the Cowboys odds are down in the range of MUCH better teams as well. The Cowboys, Pats, Packers and Steelers have the largest betting fanbase by quite a margin.




  9. #105

    Re: Who to keep

    Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
    I think Ellerbe's ceiling is probably in the Stephen Tulloch/Curtis Lofton range (5/25 or 5/27 respectively), so that's 5m per year. He probably can't expect that much given the big durability questions that he has yet to answer. I would think his final contract would be in the 4/18 range, which FWIW is higher than Jameel McClain's 3/10.5 deal he signed last year.

    Ed Reed's previous deal was just under 6m a year average, although it was heavily backloaded with high base salaries. He's wanted a raise on those numbers for years now, and I certainly don't think he deserves a raise. Can he expect to see 7m a year on his next contract? Maybe... that would be higher than the safety franchise tag number. It would be very hard for the Ravens to get something like 2 years/14m done... it would be hard to make that contract cap-friendly.
    Agree on Ellerbe...

    Reed is worth maybe 3 years $10m at this point in his career. And he won't take that. He will retire, perhaps against his wishes, because I don't see him swallowing his pride and accepting the cheap offers he receives.




  10. #106
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    Re: Who to keep

    Quote Originally Posted by jonboy79 View Post
    Agree on Ellerbe...

    Reed is worth maybe 3 years $10m at this point in his career. And he won't take that. He will retire, perhaps against his wishes, because I don't see him swallowing his pride and accepting the cheap offers he receives.

    Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see Ed's ego letting him walk without a "Most Excellent Adventure" retirement tour of his own. I'm not suggesting Reed is jealous of Ray's "Last Ride", but I do think Reed feels as if he is equally deserving of that level of recognition.
    "CARPE LOMBARDI"




  11. Re: Who to keep

    Quote Originally Posted by jaydee414 View Post
    Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see Ed's ego letting him walk without a "Most Excellent Adventure" retirement tour of his own. I'm not suggesting Reed is jealous of Ray's "Last Ride", but I do think Reed feels as if he is equally deserving of that level of recognition.
    I agree. Like with Ray, Oz is going to have to let Ed see what his open market value really is before welcoming him back to the flock at a fair price. I think a lot of teams would love to have Ed Reed on the team, but I can not see another team that is good enough for him to want to play there, offering him enough more than the Ravens would to leave.

    I think Ed is under rated around here. The guy knows what is going on out there. He knows where everyone is supposed to be on defense, and smart QBs do not throw the ball near him. His 1st Q hit on Davis proves he can still tackle when he has to. Davis looks like he is about 100lbs bigger than Ed, but he was able to reverse his momentum in mid air.

    Also I belive the reason we were able to shut down the NE passing game with 2 backup Cbs out there is because Reed was able to QB the coverage like the HOF player he is. Reed is the equal opposite to guys like Manning and Brady. Also look at the plays he made in the SB blitzing or breaking coverage to force bad throws. I do not think we win that SB or the one next year if Reed is not on the roster.

    Oz did not let J.O. or Ray retire in a different uniform, and I think he will find a way to keep Reed a raven for life as well.







  12. #108
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    Re: Who to keep

    When Oz says shoring up the middle of the defense (DT/NT, ILB, FS) is the priority for next year, I think you can pretty well assume that Ellerbe will be the priority over Kruger. This year's draft is reputed to be fairly deep in DL & safeties tend not to be sexy picks so...

    I think they'll make what they consider fair offers to Kruger & Ed & let them test the market. I think both of them can get more elsewhere but rings are like Fritos, you really can't have just one. If they leave they'll go somewhere with a realistic shot at a ring.




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