Who to keep

[Haloti92]

If they take the further mortgage/compromise the future route, then I think 3-13 is probably a bit of a stretch. The Steelers had no more injuries in 2012 than the Ravens did, perhaps even less. The reason why the Ravens were successful and the Steelers were average came down to depth and depth alone. All teams need it and the 2013 Steelers, unless they hit homer after homer in the upcoming draft, will head into the season with a bunch of old players with nothing proven behind them.

I agree, but I don't think the "old" players are so bad as to finish 3-13. Both the Steelers and the Ravens had more than your average big injuries last year. That we dealt with them a ton better (miraculously, maybe) doesn't change the fact that the number was above-average.

So I guess I am saying that a) I don't think they will necessarily face the same number of injuries in 2013 as 2012, and b) even if they do, the extra year of age combined with losing Harrison and a few other guys doesn't subtract 5 full wins from last year.

Obviously I could be wrong, but I just don't see it.

[leachisabeast]

I think you'll probably see another 8=8 type year, maybe 9-7 or 10-6 and possibly one last run in the play offs depending on Roethlisbergers health.

The thing is here, everyone every year says "IF BEN CAN STAY HEALTHY, THEY CAN WIN THE SB", but when was the last time Ben actually stayed healthy all through the year? When Jen is healthy he's one of the best players in the league, but even if he does play well next season, the Steelers aren't any where near as good as they were when they went to those SBs.

[bmorecareful]

The more I think about it, the more I think maybe Flacco's deal gets done quickly... simply because the FO has literally no leverage whatsoever. There's no point in dragging out a negotiation if you KNOW you have no leverage.

What can they threaten him with? The tag? If they tag him they will likely have to blow up the team, and that doesn't guarantee them anything other than getting to play the "bet on Flacco failing" game for one more year. They already lost that same bet this year. They also had to watch what happened to the Saints as a result of tagging and alienating their QB over the course of last season.

I'm actually wondering if the tag is even an option the FO seriously has on the table at this point. Without it, they have only two choices: pay or walk. They won't let him walk, so they have to pay. It really seems that simple. I can only hope Flacco and his agent don't abuse their leverage and kick Ozzie while he's down.

[Haloti92]

The more I think about it, the more I think maybe Flacco's deal gets done quickly... simply because the FO has literally no leverage whatsoever. There's no point in dragging out a negotiation if you KNOW you have no leverage.

What can they threaten him with? The tag? If they tag him they will likely have to blow up the team, and that doesn't guarantee them anything other than getting to play the "bet on Flacco failing" game for one more year. They already lost that same bet this year. They also had to watch what happened to the Saints as a result of tagging and alienating their QB over the course of last season.

I'm actually wondering if the tag is even an option the FO seriously has on the table at this point. Without it, they have only two choices: pay or walk. They won't let him walk, so they have to pay. It really seems that simple. I can only hope Flacco and his agent don't abuse their leverage and kick Ozzie while he's down.

The tag is a bit of leverage. Because they can match any competing offer. And because as much as Joe seems willing to gamble, it is hard to turn down an instant $50M guaranteed and, say, $115M overall, when the alternative is risking injury or a terrible year and signing for the same or a bit less in 2014.

The tag would be beneficial to the team (vs. the alternative) if Joe was indeed asking for more than anyone else out there would give him. I am not saying that this is the case, but we keep talking how the team has to do whatever Joe wants without addressing the specifics. The team certainly does not have to pay Joe $30M per year just because Joe wants.

[The Excellector]

The more I think about it, the more I think maybe Flacco's deal gets done quickly... simply because the FO has literally no leverage whatsoever. There's no point in dragging out a negotiation if you KNOW you have no leverage.

What can they threaten him with? The tag? If they tag him they will likely have to blow up the team, and that doesn't guarantee them anything other than getting to play the "bet on Flacco failing" game for one more year. They already lost that same bet this year. They also had to watch what happened to the Saints as a result of tagging and alienating their QB over the course of last season.

I'm actually wondering if the tag is even an option the FO seriously has on the table at this point. Without it, they have only two choices: pay or walk. They won't let him walk, so they have to pay. It really seems that simple. I can only hope Flacco and his agent don't abuse their leverage and kick Ozzie while he's down.

Brees took a cheap deal to come there, less than Miami offered, won the darn city a Super Bowl and they still tried to play games with him about his recent extension.

The best thing to do, as you eluded to, is to get the inevitable out of the way and give yourself time to sort out the rest of the team from there.

[The Excellector]

I think you'll probably see another 8=8 type year, maybe 9-7 or 10-6 and possibly one last run in the play offs depending on Roethlisbergers health.

The thing is here, everyone every year says "IF BEN CAN STAY HEALTHY, THEY CAN WIN THE SB", but when was the last time Ben actually stayed healthy all through the year? When Jen is healthy he's one of the best players in the league, but even if he does play well next season, the Steelers aren't any where near as good as they were when they went to those SBs.

Yeah, if Ben gets hurt again, I could see 6 wins, maybe even five, but three? I don't know about all that.

[Jeremiah W]

The franchise tag is a monster leverage tool. They never would have risked going close to this far if they did not have that tool in the box. The talks have gone on long enough that they likely have all the parameters in place and details like escalator clauses and such. There is a very good chance a deal gets done soon, and it is because the Ravens are in position to play tag 3 times if they have to. Joe can take 14.5M now or upward of 65 garuanteed right now. I think a slight bump to the Drew Brees deal gets it done and should work fine for both sides. Top of the market money right now will seem like good value in a year or two and Elite QBs like Rodgers cash in after the cap goes up.

I think the cap will go up enough in the next few years, and I do not believe that it will cripple the Steelers. The Bengals came up and the schedule was tough, the Ravens took over the division, and thye have age and issues, but still, I can not pick them to finish behind the Begals before the season starts. They always seem to find a way to bounce back. It may take a 5-11 season first, but they are still a huge threat and #1 rival IMO.

[bmorecareful]

The franchise tag is a monster leverage tool. They never would have risked going close to this far if they did not have that tool in the box. The talks have gone on long enough that they likely have all the parameters in place and details like escalator clauses and such. There is a very good chance a deal gets done soon, and it is because the Ravens are in position to play tag 3 times if they have to. Joe can take 14.5M now or upward of 65 garuanteed right now. I think a slight bump to the Drew Brees deal gets it done and should work fine for both sides. Top of the market money right now will seem like good value in a year or two and Elite QBs like Rodgers cash in after the cap goes up.

I think the cap will go up enough in the next few years, and I do not believe that it will cripple the Steelers. The Bengals came up and the schedule was tough, the Ravens took over the division, and thye have age and issues, but still, I can not pick them to finish behind the Begals before the season starts. They always seem to find a way to bounce back. It may take a 5-11 season first, but they are still a huge threat and #1 rival IMO.

No no no. You're not thinking this through all the way. The $14.5m tag is non-exclusive, and if the Ravens place the tag on Flacco on March 4th, he will have an offer for 6 years, $120m with $70m guaranteed on the table from Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cleveland, etc. at 12:01 AM March 5th.

If he accepts that deal it goes back to the Ravens to match it or let him walk. Then they're in the same spot they were to begin with, except they have a carton of eggs on their face and have to ink a deal they didn't come up with (that could potentially be structured much less favorably than they would have wanted.)

The $20m tag is non-exclusive, but that would blow up the cap for 2013 and why would they play the "bet on Joe Flacco to fail" game again for a year? What if his value goes up even more? Why pay him like that instead of just signing him to the deal he wants?

I get that the franchise tag represents leverage in a normal contract dispute. This IS NOT a normal contract dispute, and I do not believe the franchise tag is an option, or at least a real one, for the Ravens at this point. They need to suck it up and pay him what he wants immediately.

[alien bird]

No no no. You're not thinking this through all the way. The $14.5m tag is non-exclusive, and if the Ravens place the tag on Flacco on March 4th, he will have an offer for 6 years, $120m with $70m guaranteed on the table from Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cleveland, etc. at 12:01 AM March 5th.

If he accepts that deal it goes back to the Ravens to match it or let him walk. Then they're in the same spot they were to begin with, except they have a carton of eggs on their face and have to ink a deal they didn't come up with (that could potentially be structured much less favorably than they would have wanted.)

The $20m tag is non-exclusive, but that would blow up the cap for 2013 and why would they play the "bet on Joe Flacco to fail" game again for a year? What if his value goes up even more? Why pay him like that instead of just signing him to the deal he wants?

I get that the franchise tag represents leverage in a normal contract dispute. This IS NOT a normal contract dispute, and I do not believe the franchise tag is an option, or at least a real one, for the Ravens at this point. They need to suck it up and pay him what he wants immediately.

I agree with a lot of this post, but Joe has to know that the risk of a $20 million tag on him makes him rich but also gives him no weapons with which to work. Does he really want to risk being on a team that might miss the playoffs - and his year be relatively mediocre in the process? I think it's in his own best interest to take a fair deal and not squeeze the team to the last drop. He's going to be rich no matter what, so why risk his potential legacy?

[NC Raven]

I agree with a lot of this post, but Joe has to know that the risk of a $20 million tag on him makes him rich but also gives him no weapons with which to work. Does he really want to risk being on a team that might miss the playoffs - and his year be relatively mediocre in the process? I think it's in his own best interest to take a fair deal and not squeeze the team to the last drop. He's going to be rich no matter what, so why risk his potential legacy?

It's never bothered Peyton Manning in the past. Before he actually won a SB, the fans derisively called him "Pay-A-Ton" Manning and singled his cap-killing salary out as the reason they couldn't win -- because it was him, about 5-6 other other guys, and 45 bags of crap for a roster.

Now he's in Denver with a 20m cap number made possible by the fact a lot of his better teammates are still on rookie contracts. The window on cheap labor around him will close fast. If he doesn't win one next year, odds are they'll have a logjam of guys lining up for paydays and no room to pay them.

[Boulderraven]

In Vegas the Steelers and Ravens are both 10-1 for the SB. Vegas knows what it is doing.


Ps. I would not take either of the future odds as a gambler. Those aren't bargains.

[Boulderraven]

Back to the topic for me

Go:
Both Williams
Dickson
Ellerbe ( hard one)
Leach

Stay
Flacco
Kruger (rather keep him than Ellerbe- more valuable,IMO)
McKinney
Boldin
Jones
Reed (hate to see him in other uniform like JO or RL, he's a lifer)

Dont know if all that's possible, of course.