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Thread: Who to keep
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02-06-2013, 06:19 AM #38Pro Bowl Poster
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Re: Who to keep
I came across the salary cap figures for all 32 teams while I was reading around Bleacher Report. I know it's not the most credible of places, but that being said I looked at the 28 teams in contention for our defensive UFAs this offseason. (I didn't even bother looking at the Steelers, Patriots, or 49ers because I just don't see any of our players leaving for either of the three teams). I assumed that we re-sign Ed Reed. I was trying to see which teams are the best fit for Kruger, Cary, and Ellerbe and their likely destinations based on opposing team salaries, needs, etc.
I think 11 teams won't be in play for any of our (or maybe any) FAs because of low/negative cap numbers- Cards, Falcons, Cowboys, Lions, Panthers, Saints, NYG, Jets, Raiders, Rams, Skin.
The Dolphins, Browns, Bengals, and Colts have SO much cap room they could go after anybody.
I looked at the remaing teams' salaray cap, UFAs, RFAs, current players, needs etc. :
Bills- They have a a good chunk of money to spend, but with Byrd, Levitre, and McKelvin all hitting free agency, they have their own issues to solve. Ellerbe is the only player they would really covert, but they won't throw money at Ellerbe after last seasons defensive splurge. They're looking for a franchise QB.
Bears- They don't need a corner or a pass rushers. They need ILB with Urlacher and Roach possibly leaving. Their focus should be geared more towards that offensive line and I can't really see the Bears making a play on our defensive guys.
Broncos- Ryan Clady, two free agent CBs . They don't need pass rushers. Their MLB position is vacant so Ellerbe could fit there. They will invest a good amount of money on Clady and have their own depth positions to fill. I can't see them being big FA players. Their team is already good no need to make a splash.
Green Bay- They got Clay Mathews. They have to resign Shields at corner, he's pretty good. They had Brad Jones at the ILB spot playing pretty well this year. They could use a guy like Kruger, but they don't have much cap space to work with. They need a center and I just don't see them going for a big defensive FA.
Texans- They have a good amount of cap space and not many UFAs to sign. Their pass rush is one of the best in the league, they don't really need Kruger. They have to resign Glover Quin (safety) and their CB's are solid. Ellerbe would be a great fit for them next to Cushing, but I think Ellerbe is looking to be the number one linebacker.
Jags- They got money and they're pathetic. They would pay Cary and Kruger top dollar.
Chiefs- Another team with some money to spend. CB isn't a position I think the Chiefs are looking to address. They have some UFAs of their own, but no one special or pressing. Derrick Johnson could use a side kick, but like the Texans Ellerbe isn't looking to play in another LB's shadow. Kruger would be a great fit for KC, they need some pass rushers that unit was pathetic this past season.
Vikings- They have good pass rushers and don't really need Krugker, but they would love a player like Ellerbe. Seeing as how Winfield is almost as old as Ray, an upgrade at corner could be in order. With some money to play with, Vikings could make some FA noise.
Eagles- From what I understand they don't have much cap to play with (IDK how Vick's potential release etc. impacts their salary cap, but yea). They're switching to the 3-4, so all our defensive players make sense in Philly except Cary (they have Nnamdi and the young guy Boykin). However, I feel as if Chip Kelly will focus his efforts on the offense and the draft. The free agency splurges of the past two seasons for the Eagles have backfired and I think they might cool it back this offseason.
SD- I could see any of our 3 UFAs going to SD. A lot of Ravens have ventured to SD recently.
Seattle- I don't see Kruger, Ellerbe, or Cary in Seattle. Seattle's defense was one of the best in the league and they're strong at every position. They do however, have a good chunk of money to spend. I see them spending more on depth rather than FA starters.
Bucs- They have a lot of money. They need to resign Michael Bennet because it seemed as if he was their entire pass rush last season. Clayborn is still young and they don't need Kruger. However, if they can't resign Micahel Bennet I could see them going after Kruger. Ellerbe doesn't really have a place on the team, but Cary Williams does. Without Talib their CBs were pretty bad. They need two corners and they'd love to have a solid contributor like Cary.
Titans- No need for Ellerbe or Kruger. They have a solid LB core and Wimbley and Morgan on the edge. I could see Cary returning to his old team cause they're thin at CB.
Now looking at each individual player:
Ellerbe
Most likely suitors- Vikings, Chargers, Bengals, Colts
Less likely suitors- Bills, Broncos, Eagles
Kruger
Most likely suitors- Jags, Chiefs, Chargers, Browns, Colts
Less likely suitors- Eagles
Cary
Most likely suitors- Jags, Chargers, Colts, Vikings, Bucs, Titans, Dolphins
I personally think that with the amount of quality free agents availble this offseason we may be able to retain Ellerbe, Kruger, and Cary for cheaper than we think. There aren't many teams in play for each of those guys because of salary cap issues, already having players at the position, etc.
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02-06-2013, 09:46 AM #39Regular 1st Stringer
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Re: Who to keep
Some awesome detail in this thread for those of us who have limited knowledge of the cap situation, thanks.
So, question to those of you who seem to understand the intricacies of the cap (because I damn sure don't): based on the pure numbers/dollars, what are the chances of Reed being back next year?
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02-06-2013, 10:29 AM #40
Re: Who to keep
I don't think we should put much effort into keeping Cary. Corey Graham and Webb are both clearly better, Chykie will probably be better this time next year, and a healthy Jimmy Smith is without a doubt better as well.
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02-06-2013, 11:29 AM #41
Re: Who to keep
Oh I understand that we sign just about every RFA ever, but this year we are super tight capwise, and this is one of the worst drafts in the teams history that is up for RFA. David Reed, harewood and Dickson, IMO should all be replaced cheaper in this instance. I think we can quite possibly get the same or better production from UDFA's and late round picks which cost half as much or less. It's probably NOT what they will do, but IMO is the right move. Or, tender Dickson just to ship him to Philly for 5th, so we have more ammunition to move UP in the draft.
IMO, Dickson's ONLY value above random UDFA TE is if Pitta were to get long term injured. While Pitta is healthy, I'd RATHER have (insert player here) as a blocker.
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02-06-2013, 11:38 AM #42
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02-06-2013, 11:47 AM #43Hyperbolic curmudgeometer
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Re: Who to keep
IMO the defensive priority has to be Ellerbe. I've never been sold on McClain at ILB & past experience with spinal cord injuries (Landry) suggests that it may take him a season to fully recover; that leaves the cupboard awfully bare there.
I'd love to have Kruger back, but let's be realistic--with Sizzle & Upshaw on the edges, Paul would be relegated to situational play, & with other holes to fill I don't think they can afford to pay him what he's worth on the market. They've got young'uns like Hamilton they'll look at as a 3rd-down pass rusher. Damn shame Paul doesn't have the skill set to move inside, but hey, as the Queen famously put it, if she had balls she'd be King.
Cary Williams, sayonara & thanks for the plays--now go get paid. Graham, Webb, Jimmy & Chykie are a solid set of CBs, Asa Jackson will get a longer look, & they'll pick up a project or two in the late rounds of the draft.
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Re: Who to keep
Dickson will be bought back, there is no way Ozzie is just going to give him away... unless a team offers a 3rd round pick for him which will not happen.
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Re: Who to keep
We are no tighter against the cap this year than we have been for the last 3 years. In fact, we might be a bit better off because we have relief from Lewis' contract, except for a small dead money portion.
We tendered all our meaningful RFAs in the past, and that's sure to continue again. I wouldn't say that David Reed or Harewood is assured of getting a tender. However, Ed Dickson is a given, as are Jones and Pitta. Perhaps they do trade him (unlikely), but outside of that event, he will absolutely be tendered.
Teams like the Ravens don't stay at the top of the heap every year by letting talent like Dickson get away. Yes, 2013 will be his last year in purple, but he still has a nice value to this team. $1.3 million is a bargain for a player of his ability. If we want a real blocking TE, we have 11 picks to find one. Michael Williams in the 4th or 5th round would be a great option. There is room for Dickson and a legit blocker.
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02-06-2013, 12:46 PM #47
Re: Who to keep
There is room, and Michael Williams is the exact player I hope we target, I jsut question the value of Dickson in that scenario. IMO, he would then NEVER see the field unless Pitta is hurt. $1.3m for a 3rd string TE that can't catch or block but runs like the wind is a LOT.
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Re: Who to keep
They weren't "tough" last year, as they muddled their way to some really bad losses. This team will be without at least 8, and possibly as much as 13 starters from last year's team. What makes you think they will be "tough" when they displayed serious depth issues last year, only to lose a good chunk of their capable players?
This is a team that had Josh Victorian as their nickleback for a good chunk of the stretch run of the season. Yes, the same Josh Victorian who was like the #9 cornerback in training camp for us last year.
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