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Thread: Who to keep

  1. #37

    Re: Who to keep



    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    The Steelers might be the worst team in the NFL next year. Their cap situation is so awful that they can't even make a viable offer to Mike Wallace.

    Keep in mind that the cap is going to be roughly $121 million. They have $101.6 million tied up into ten players for next year (Roethlisberger, Polamalu, Woodley, Timmons, Keisel, Colon, Clark, Ike Taylor, Miller, Harrison) Eight of those 10 players will be in their 30s next year.

    Here's the funny part. They were cash strapped against the 2012 cap to the point that they restructured a couple of contracts. Now, just in those 10 players above, they are looking at $39.8 million in salary increases from '12 to '13. That's not counting all their 1st-3rd year players who will all be getting raises next year as well. They also don't have that many contracts coming off the books to offset those increases. Wallace ($2.7 in 2012), Foote ($3.6 in 2012), and Hampton ($4.9 in 2012) are the only help they get in that department.

    Know what is even more painful? They have just shy of $39 million tied up in dead money to those nine players just for 2013. That's not even true dead money, because, if they wanted to cut someone, they'd have to pay future dead money as well.

    So their dead money amount for their 1-10 highest paid players is roughly comparable to what we are paying in full salary/bonuses to our 3-12 players (excluding Ngata and Suggs).

    Cutting Harrison (age 35 in 2013) would save $6.57 but would also cost them $4.93 in dead money.

    Cutting Ike Taylor would save $6 million in 2013 salary, but they would also be saddled with nearly $7 million in dead money from his final two years.

    Cutting Willie Colon would save $5.5 million , but he is due roughly $6.4 in dead money over the final 3 years of his contract.

    These aging Steelers weren't particularly good last year, aren't getting any younger or healthier, and are too backloaded with their contracts to be able to make any sense in actually cutting them.

    What the Steelers could do is either:

    a) cut the heck out of their roster, eat all that dead money, and try to use whatever is left to find a free agent or two. However, not too many of those contracts are cut friendly. Woodley, Timmons, and Roethlisberger each have over $10 million in future dead money. These might be the 3 worth saving out of those ten. Ryan Clark's contract isn't too bad either. They would part ways with everyone else, keep a few pivotal veterans, and load up on young players. That's a tall task though, because Pouncey and Antonio Brown are really the only two recent draft picks who have done much for them.

    b) restructure to work on clearing that $30-$40 million off the books and pushing it into 2014, when the cap is much larger. This is the route I hope they go because it would keep these aging, past-their-prime players around for even longer to the point that it might diminish their chances of success for even longer.


    Either route they opt to take leaves them as the 4th best team in the AFC North for probably at least the next two seasons. I like it.
    you are delusional, as long as they have Ben and Lebeau they will always be tough.




  2. #38

    Re: Who to keep

    I came across the salary cap figures for all 32 teams while I was reading around Bleacher Report. I know it's not the most credible of places, but that being said I looked at the 28 teams in contention for our defensive UFAs this offseason. (I didn't even bother looking at the Steelers, Patriots, or 49ers because I just don't see any of our players leaving for either of the three teams). I assumed that we re-sign Ed Reed. I was trying to see which teams are the best fit for Kruger, Cary, and Ellerbe and their likely destinations based on opposing team salaries, needs, etc.

    I think 11 teams won't be in play for any of our (or maybe any) FAs because of low/negative cap numbers- Cards, Falcons, Cowboys, Lions, Panthers, Saints, NYG, Jets, Raiders, Rams, Skin.

    The Dolphins, Browns, Bengals, and Colts have SO much cap room they could go after anybody.

    I looked at the remaing teams' salaray cap, UFAs, RFAs, current players, needs etc. :

    Bills- They have a a good chunk of money to spend, but with Byrd, Levitre, and McKelvin all hitting free agency, they have their own issues to solve. Ellerbe is the only player they would really covert, but they won't throw money at Ellerbe after last seasons defensive splurge. They're looking for a franchise QB.

    Bears- They don't need a corner or a pass rushers. They need ILB with Urlacher and Roach possibly leaving. Their focus should be geared more towards that offensive line and I can't really see the Bears making a play on our defensive guys.

    Broncos- Ryan Clady, two free agent CBs . They don't need pass rushers. Their MLB position is vacant so Ellerbe could fit there. They will invest a good amount of money on Clady and have their own depth positions to fill. I can't see them being big FA players. Their team is already good no need to make a splash.

    Green Bay- They got Clay Mathews. They have to resign Shields at corner, he's pretty good. They had Brad Jones at the ILB spot playing pretty well this year. They could use a guy like Kruger, but they don't have much cap space to work with. They need a center and I just don't see them going for a big defensive FA.

    Texans- They have a good amount of cap space and not many UFAs to sign. Their pass rush is one of the best in the league, they don't really need Kruger. They have to resign Glover Quin (safety) and their CB's are solid. Ellerbe would be a great fit for them next to Cushing, but I think Ellerbe is looking to be the number one linebacker.


    Jags- They got money and they're pathetic. They would pay Cary and Kruger top dollar.

    Chiefs- Another team with some money to spend. CB isn't a position I think the Chiefs are looking to address. They have some UFAs of their own, but no one special or pressing. Derrick Johnson could use a side kick, but like the Texans Ellerbe isn't looking to play in another LB's shadow. Kruger would be a great fit for KC, they need some pass rushers that unit was pathetic this past season.

    Vikings- They have good pass rushers and don't really need Krugker, but they would love a player like Ellerbe. Seeing as how Winfield is almost as old as Ray, an upgrade at corner could be in order. With some money to play with, Vikings could make some FA noise.

    Eagles- From what I understand they don't have much cap to play with (IDK how Vick's potential release etc. impacts their salary cap, but yea). They're switching to the 3-4, so all our defensive players make sense in Philly except Cary (they have Nnamdi and the young guy Boykin). However, I feel as if Chip Kelly will focus his efforts on the offense and the draft. The free agency splurges of the past two seasons for the Eagles have backfired and I think they might cool it back this offseason.

    SD- I could see any of our 3 UFAs going to SD. A lot of Ravens have ventured to SD recently.

    Seattle- I don't see Kruger, Ellerbe, or Cary in Seattle. Seattle's defense was one of the best in the league and they're strong at every position. They do however, have a good chunk of money to spend. I see them spending more on depth rather than FA starters.

    Bucs- They have a lot of money. They need to resign Michael Bennet because it seemed as if he was their entire pass rush last season. Clayborn is still young and they don't need Kruger. However, if they can't resign Micahel Bennet I could see them going after Kruger. Ellerbe doesn't really have a place on the team, but Cary Williams does. Without Talib their CBs were pretty bad. They need two corners and they'd love to have a solid contributor like Cary.

    Titans- No need for Ellerbe or Kruger. They have a solid LB core and Wimbley and Morgan on the edge. I could see Cary returning to his old team cause they're thin at CB.


    Now looking at each individual player:

    Ellerbe
    Most likely suitors- Vikings, Chargers, Bengals, Colts
    Less likely suitors- Bills, Broncos, Eagles

    Kruger
    Most likely suitors- Jags, Chiefs, Chargers, Browns, Colts
    Less likely suitors- Eagles

    Cary
    Most likely suitors- Jags, Chargers, Colts, Vikings, Bucs, Titans, Dolphins



    I personally think that with the amount of quality free agents availble this offseason we may be able to retain Ellerbe, Kruger, and Cary for cheaper than we think. There aren't many teams in play for each of those guys because of salary cap issues, already having players at the position, etc.




  3. #39
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    Re: Who to keep

    Some awesome detail in this thread for those of us who have limited knowledge of the cap situation, thanks.

    So, question to those of you who seem to understand the intricacies of the cap (because I damn sure don't): based on the pure numbers/dollars, what are the chances of Reed being back next year?




  4. #40

    Re: Who to keep

    I don't think we should put much effort into keeping Cary. Corey Graham and Webb are both clearly better, Chykie will probably be better this time next year, and a healthy Jimmy Smith is without a doubt better as well.




  5. #41

    Re: Who to keep

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    The Ravens' history of RFA tenders says that you couldn't be more wrong. If they gave a $1.9 million 2nd round tender to Ellerbe last offseason after an awful 2011, they are going to go give $1.3 million to Dickson. $1.3 million to a veteran in his prime, even if he is a backup, is still a monumental bargain. Tendering him only increases our salary cap about $750-800k. That's peanuts.

    Oh I understand that we sign just about every RFA ever, but this year we are super tight capwise, and this is one of the worst drafts in the teams history that is up for RFA. David Reed, harewood and Dickson, IMO should all be replaced cheaper in this instance. I think we can quite possibly get the same or better production from UDFA's and late round picks which cost half as much or less. It's probably NOT what they will do, but IMO is the right move. Or, tender Dickson just to ship him to Philly for 5th, so we have more ammunition to move UP in the draft.

    IMO, Dickson's ONLY value above random UDFA TE is if Pitta were to get long term injured. While Pitta is healthy, I'd RATHER have (insert player here) as a blocker.




  6. #42

    Re: Who to keep

    Quote Originally Posted by Miz89 View Post
    ATo those saying not to tender Ed Dickson, couldn't disagree more. He is the most talented tight end on the team, and once Cam got fired, we started to see how effective he can be once again.

    .

    Looks like Tarzan, plays like jane.




  7. #43
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    Re: Who to keep

    IMO the defensive priority has to be Ellerbe. I've never been sold on McClain at ILB & past experience with spinal cord injuries (Landry) suggests that it may take him a season to fully recover; that leaves the cupboard awfully bare there.

    I'd love to have Kruger back, but let's be realistic--with Sizzle & Upshaw on the edges, Paul would be relegated to situational play, & with other holes to fill I don't think they can afford to pay him what he's worth on the market. They've got young'uns like Hamilton they'll look at as a 3rd-down pass rusher. Damn shame Paul doesn't have the skill set to move inside, but hey, as the Queen famously put it, if she had balls she'd be King.

    Cary Williams, sayonara & thanks for the plays--now go get paid. Graham, Webb, Jimmy & Chykie are a solid set of CBs, Asa Jackson will get a longer look, & they'll pick up a project or two in the late rounds of the draft.




  8. #44
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    Re: Who to keep

    Quote Originally Posted by Miz89 View Post

    To those saying not to tender Ed Dickson, couldn't disagree more. He is the most talented tight end on the team, and once Cam got fired, we started to see how effective he can be once again.
    I sincerely would love to know how you arrived at this conclusion.
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  9. #45
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    Re: Who to keep

    Dickson will be bought back, there is no way Ozzie is just going to give him away... unless a team offers a 3rd round pick for him which will not happen.




  10. #46

    Re: Who to keep

    Quote Originally Posted by jonboy79 View Post
    Oh I understand that we sign just about every RFA ever, but this year we are super tight capwise, and this is one of the worst drafts in the teams history that is up for RFA. David Reed, harewood and Dickson, IMO should all be replaced cheaper in this instance. I think we can quite possibly get the same or better production from UDFA's and late round picks which cost half as much or less. It's probably NOT what they will do, but IMO is the right move. Or, tender Dickson just to ship him to Philly for 5th, so we have more ammunition to move UP in the draft.

    IMO, Dickson's ONLY value above random UDFA TE is if Pitta were to get long term injured. While Pitta is healthy, I'd RATHER have (insert player here) as a blocker.
    We are no tighter against the cap this year than we have been for the last 3 years. In fact, we might be a bit better off because we have relief from Lewis' contract, except for a small dead money portion.

    We tendered all our meaningful RFAs in the past, and that's sure to continue again. I wouldn't say that David Reed or Harewood is assured of getting a tender. However, Ed Dickson is a given, as are Jones and Pitta. Perhaps they do trade him (unlikely), but outside of that event, he will absolutely be tendered.

    Teams like the Ravens don't stay at the top of the heap every year by letting talent like Dickson get away. Yes, 2013 will be his last year in purple, but he still has a nice value to this team. $1.3 million is a bargain for a player of his ability. If we want a real blocking TE, we have 11 picks to find one. Michael Williams in the 4th or 5th round would be a great option. There is room for Dickson and a legit blocker.




  11. #47

    Re: Who to keep

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    We are no tighter against the cap this year than we have been for the last 3 years. In fact, we might be a bit better off because we have relief from Lewis' contract, except for a small dead money portion.

    We tendered all our meaningful RFAs in the past, and that's sure to continue again. I wouldn't say that David Reed or Harewood is assured of getting a tender. However, Ed Dickson is a given, as are Jones and Pitta. Perhaps they do trade him (unlikely), but outside of that event, he will absolutely be tendered.

    Teams like the Ravens don't stay at the top of the heap every year by letting talent like Dickson get away. Yes, 2013 will be his last year in purple, but he still has a nice value to this team. $1.3 million is a bargain for a player of his ability. If we want a real blocking TE, we have 11 picks to find one. Michael Williams in the 4th or 5th round would be a great option. There is room for Dickson and a legit blocker.
    There is room, and Michael Williams is the exact player I hope we target, I jsut question the value of Dickson in that scenario. IMO, he would then NEVER see the field unless Pitta is hurt. $1.3m for a 3rd string TE that can't catch or block but runs like the wind is a LOT.




  12. #48

    Re: Who to keep

    Quote Originally Posted by Boulderraven View Post
    you are delusional, as long as they have Ben and Lebeau they will always be tough.
    They weren't "tough" last year, as they muddled their way to some really bad losses. This team will be without at least 8, and possibly as much as 13 starters from last year's team. What makes you think they will be "tough" when they displayed serious depth issues last year, only to lose a good chunk of their capable players?

    This is a team that had Josh Victorian as their nickleback for a good chunk of the stretch run of the season. Yes, the same Josh Victorian who was like the #9 cornerback in training camp for us last year.




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