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  1. #25

    Re: Salary Cap Notes: Corey Graham and Michael Oher cash in



    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    Jones saves $4 million
    Leach saves $3 million ($7 total)
    Williams saves $1.2 million ($8.2)
    McClain saves $1.8 ($10)
    Birk saves $2 ($12)
    Lewis saves $3.7 ($15.7)
    Ayanabdejo saves $940k ($16.6)


    What you have to understand is that is that trimming these 7 contracts off the roster doesn't save the $16.6 though, because you still have to fill their seven spots on the rule of 51 with another player. If you estimate that each of those players will make $500k, that's $3.5 right there. So the savings aren't quite as great. It's not as if dead money occupies one of the 51 slots.

    That's why it might not make a ton of sense to cut Ayanbadejo. You really are only saving $400k.

    That's also why it might not make sense to cut Jameel either. You can either pay him $4.2 towards 2013 or cut him and still pay $2.4 in dead money. If you assume that his replacement spot on the roster will be filled by a cheap rookie, the true savings is only $1.3 million

    If you want to get a true cap savings by cutting a player, add $500 back on to the total. That is the total that is saved if replaced by a rookie/2nd year/ERFA on the 51 salary cap roster.

    Now, the plus side is that when you sign a free agent not on your roster, the cap hit isn't as severe. If you sign Player A and his first year cap # is $3.25 million, the actual increase would be around $2.75 million because his addition to the rule of 51 will push a player who was making $500k off the roster.
    Very nice breakdown and a succinct, accurate, and helpful way of characterizing the frequently-disregarded rule of 51 and its impact on the cap. Ayanbadejo and McClain aren't going anywhere. The rest are viable cuts IMO.

    The bottom line is that it's really not possible to know what the Ravens' offseason plans (and the 2013 roster) will include until Joe Flacco is secured for 2013. There are indications that the team will go all out to lock Flacco up long-term as soon as the new league year opens, and if that happens then we'll be able to work off of that. But if they don't get anything done and need to franchise him, I actually doubt they'll be able to sign a single FA, whether extending their own guys or signing guys off the street.

    The tag is going to completely obliterate their cap space unless and until an extension is reached. If that's late in the offseason or even after the season opener, they're going to miss out on free agency apart from picking up a few scrap heapers after final cuts. That's not necessarily a huge problem, frankly, but as I've been saying all along, the 2013 draft is going to be the most important in a very long time (they're all important, of course.)

    If my "worst-case" scenario of entering the season with Flacco under the tag comes to fruition, they will likely be looking to draftees to compete for starting jobs at several positions: FS, ILB, and LT for sure, and possibly WR as well. This year we had 2 rookies play substantial/starter level snaps: KO and Courtney Upshaw. Next year it could be as many as 4, depending on who wins jobs out of training camp.




  2. #26

    Re: Salary Cap Notes: Corey Graham and Michael Oher cash in

    In fact, I'm going to go through each position on the roster and highlight the Ravens' options without signing a single free agent this offseason and making several of the discussed cuts to free up the QB franchise tag space. This is the "worst case scenario" plan. Starters in bold, training camp competition participants in italics. As I see it, LT, WILL, FS, NT, and FB all look like MAJOR question marks.

    QB - Flacco
    WR - #1 Boldin #2 Torrey #3 Doss (co-starter if we go to primarily 3-wide sets) #4-6 Streeter/Williams/Thompson/Reed/Draft pick
    LT - Draft pick/Oher
    LG - Osemele
    C - Gradkowski
    RG - Yanda
    RT - Oher/draft pick
    RB - Rice/Pierce
    FB - Draft pick/Pitta (as H-Back)/none
    TE - #1 Pitta #2 Dickson/Draft pick

    DE/DT - McPhee/Jones
    NT - Draft pick/Cody
    DT - Ngata
    SAM - Upshaw
    MIKE - McClain
    WILL - Bynes/McClellan/Draft pick
    RUSH - Suggs
    CB - #1 Webb #2 Graham #3 Smith/Brown
    SS - Pollard
    FS - Thompson/Cook/Draft pick

    K - Tucker
    P - Koch
    KR - Thompson/Reed/etc.
    PR - Rainey/Webb/etc.
    Last edited by bmorecareful; 01-28-2013 at 11:42 AM. Reason: forgot TE




  3. #27

    Re: Salary Cap Notes: Corey Graham and Michael Oher cash in

    Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
    In fact, I'm going to go through each position on the roster and highlight the Ravens' options without signing a single free agent this offseason and making several of the discussed cuts to free up the QB franchise tag space. This is the "worst case scenario" plan. Starters in bold, training camp competition participants in italics. As I see it, LT, WILL, FS, NT, and FB all look like MAJOR question marks.

    QB - Flacco
    WR - #1 Boldin #2 Torrey #3 Doss (co-starter if we go to primarily 3-wide sets) #4-6 Streeter/Williams/Thompson/Reed/Draft pick
    LT - Draft pick/Oher
    LG - Osemele
    C - Gradkowski
    RG - Yanda
    RT - Oher/draft pick
    RB - Rice/Pierce
    FB - Draft pick/Pitta (as H-Back)/none

    DE/DT - McPhee/Jones
    NT - Draft pick/Cody
    DT - Ngata
    SAM - Upshaw
    MIKE - McClain
    WILL - Bynes/McClellan/Draft pick
    RUSH - Suggs
    CB - #1 Webb #2 Graham #3 Smith/Brown
    SS - Pollard
    FS - Thompson/Cook/Draft pick

    K - Tucker
    P - Koch
    KR - Thompson/Reed/etc.
    PR - Rainey/Webb/etc.
    That defense will need a huge influx of speed in the front 7. That is a pretty slow defense.
    Although Walsh's system of offense can compensate for lack of talent; however, defense is a different story. According to Walsh, talent on defense was essential and could not be compensated for. What did Walsh do in 1981? He acquired physical and talented players on defense.




  4. #28
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    Re: Salary Cap Notes: Corey Graham and Michael Oher cash in

    I think there is no way we go into the 2013 season with that defense, the Ravens will address the key areas in FA and the draft, although Bmore did say "worse case scenario".




  5. #29
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    Re: Salary Cap Notes: Corey Graham and Michael Oher cash in

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    Jones saves $4 million
    Leach saves $3 million ($7 total)
    Williams saves $1.2 million ($8.2)
    McClain saves $1.8 ($10)
    Birk saves $2 ($12)
    Lewis saves $3.7 ($15.7)
    Ayanabdejo saves $940k ($16.6)


    What you have to understand is that is that trimming these 7 contracts off the roster doesn't save the $16.6 though, because you still have to fill their seven spots on the rule of 51 with another player. If you estimate that each of those players will make $500k, that's $3.5 right there. So the savings aren't quite as great. It's not as if dead money occupies one of the 51 slots.

    That's why it might not make a ton of sense to cut Ayanbadejo. You really are only saving $400k.

    That's also why it might not make sense to cut Jameel either. You can either pay him $4.2 towards 2013 or cut him and still pay $2.4 in dead money. If you assume that his replacement spot on the roster will be filled by a cheap rookie, the true savings is only $1.3 million

    If you want to get a true cap savings by cutting a player, add $500 back on to the total. That is the total that is saved if replaced by a rookie/2nd year/ERFA on the 51 salary cap roster.

    Now, the plus side is that when you sign a free agent not on your roster, the cap hit isn't as severe. If you sign Player A and his first year cap # is $3.25 million, the actual increase would be around $2.75 million because his addition to the rule of 51 will push a player who was making $500k off the roster.
    IDK where i got 17 mill from, I went back and yeah its 16.6. I have mostly rookies replacing those players, with two key FA signings (Terrence Knighton, and Kenny Phillips).

    There will be growing pains no doubt, it will be a much younger team, but I'm not expecting a 2002 type hangover at all, we aren't in that bad of shape IMO.




  6. #30

    Re: Salary Cap Notes: Corey Graham and Michael Oher cash in

    Quote Originally Posted by Raveninwoodlawn View Post
    That defense will need a huge influx of speed in the front 7. That is a pretty slow defense.
    I agree... my personal suggestion is moving to more of a 4-3 Under front in order to get faster. That would take Cody off the field and move Ngata to 4-3 nose... the big advantage of the 4-3 under is that it's kind of a hybrid of 3-4 and 4-3 personnel so we already have some guys who fit well, and it's all about penetrating the line.

    LDE (5-tech) Upshaw
    NT (1-tech) Ngata
    DT (3-tech) Jones/McPhee
    RDE (9-tech) Suggs
    SAM - McClellan/Hamilton (in the 4-3 under this position plays up on the LOS similarly to more of a 3-4 front, this is the position Von Miller plays in Denver)
    MIKE - McClain
    WILL - Ellerbe if resigned... but need a very speedy Lavonte David type of player if not (Khaseem Greene is a good fit in that spot.)

    You upgrade speed by taking Cody off the field and asking your DTs to penetrate while your SAM and MIKE eat up blocks and your WILL runs free. I'm not sure on the fit for some of those guys... Upshaw isn't a great fit anywhere really but he defends the run well and the 5-tech LDE is the run stopping end. I'm not sure if Art Jones is an explosive enough pass rusher to play 3-tech.. usually you want a Geno Atkins type of quick-twitch guy there. Ngata, a healthy Suggs, and McClellan are all good fits, though.




  7. #31
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    Re: Salary Cap Notes: Corey Graham and Michael Oher cash in

    McClain at Mike, please god no....




  8. #32
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    Re: Salary Cap Notes: Corey Graham and Michael Oher cash in

    The change to a 4-3 looks good on paper, but its probably really unlikely. We haven't ran a 4-3 for a while, and idk if Pees has any history running a 4-3 either.




  9. #33

    Re: Salary Cap Notes: Corey Graham and Michael Oher cash in

    Quote Originally Posted by leachisabeast View Post
    McClain at Mike, please god no....
    I'm not crazy about it, but there aren't a lot of other options. Maybe Bynes beats him out in training camp? Maybe he'll look better with better DL play in front of him? He played pretty well in 2010 and 2011, maybe 2012 was the exception. I slotted him in at MIKE because he's definitely not athletic or fast enough to play WILL.

    The whole point is that the Ravens could EASILY go into 2013 without signing a single free agent. They just don't have the cap space. Kruger, Ellerbe, Cary, McKinnie... all gone. The money's just not there. The Ravens will survive like they always have.




  10. #34

    Re: Salary Cap Notes: Corey Graham and Michael Oher cash in

    [QUOTE=bmorecareful;571551]
    The whole point is that the Ravens could EASILY go into 2013 without signing a single free agent. They just don't have the cap space. Kruger, Ellerbe, Cary, McKinnie... all gone. QUOTE]

    The only way we would be close to having this happen would be if we had to franchise Flacco and kept Leach/Boldin/Jones at their current cap #s.

    I don't have my cap spreadsheet here at work, but even if we had to give Joe a $16 million fanchise tag and opted to keep Jacoby/Quan/Vonta (assuming cut/retire to Birk and cutting Bobby Williams) that would put us around $122-$123 based on my memory of what it looks like. I believe, with our carryover from 2012, our salary cap ceiling is $122.

    So imagine if we get Flacco signed longterm ($6 million+ in savings) and part ways with Jones and Leach ($7 million savings). That would give us $12 million or so in cap money to spend without even having to touch Boldin's contract. We can keep Kruger and Ellerbe for that amount and possibly even bring in one more FA. Or, if 99 and 59 get too expensive, we can get four decent mid-level free agents for that amount too.

    If we want to keep either Jones or Leach, then we could probably do so as well and still be somewhat active in resigning Kruger/Ellerbe or getting 2-3 free agents.

    Getting Flacco signed long-term is the pivotal event of this offseason. Without it, we are basically treading water with our current guys. With it, we are actually not in a bad spot in the least.




  11. #35
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    Re: Salary Cap Notes: Corey Graham and Michael Oher cash in

    What is the deadline for an NFL team to declare whom, if anyone, they are going to franchise tag in 2013?




  12. #36
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    Re: Salary Cap Notes: Corey Graham and Michael Oher cash in

    [QUOTE=LukeDaniel;571575]
    Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
    The whole point is that the Ravens could EASILY go into 2013 without signing a single free agent. They just don't have the cap space. Kruger, Ellerbe, Cary, McKinnie... all gone. QUOTE]

    The only way we would be close to having this happen would be if we had to franchise Flacco and kept Leach/Boldin/Jones at their current cap #s.

    I don't have my cap spreadsheet here at work, but even if we had to give Joe a $16 million fanchise tag and opted to keep Jacoby/Quan/Vonta (assuming cut/retire to Birk and cutting Bobby Williams) that would put us around $122-$123 based on my memory of what it looks like. I believe, with our carryover from 2012, our salary cap ceiling is $122.

    So imagine if we get Flacco signed longterm ($6 million+ in savings) and part ways with Jones and Leach ($7 million savings). That would give us $12 million or so in cap money to spend without even having to touch Boldin's contract. We can keep Kruger and Ellerbe for that amount and possibly even bring in one more FA. Or, if 99 and 59 get too expensive, we can get four decent mid-level free agents for that amount too.

    If we want to keep either Jones or Leach, then we could probably do so as well and still be somewhat active in resigning Kruger/Ellerbe or getting 2-3 free agents.

    Getting Flacco signed long-term is the pivotal event of this offseason. Without it, we are basically treading water with our current guys. With it, we are actually not in a bad spot in the least.
    This is around what I've worked out too, I don't understand where the whole "no cap at all" thing is coming from. Sure, its not perfect, but its not the Pittsburgh Steelers. I worked out (despite the minor mistake of working out 17 mill instead of 16.5) we will be able to afford two solid FA's and will be able to re-sign Kruger and Ellerbe, unless they get crazy with their demands (isn't really out of the questions tbh). Even though I love the likes of Leach, the upside of cutting him to keep guys like Kruger and Ellerbe is higher than keeping a 32 year old FB.




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