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  1. #76

    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30



    Quote Originally Posted by bacchys View Post
    He is a good QB. I don't think he's as good as Flacco, but I think one can make a reasonable argument either way. Flacco may not put up the numbers in the regular season that Ryan has, but there are factors outside their personal abilities that affect those numbers.


    I think if Atlanta had chosen Flacco and we ended up with Ryan here in Baltimore we would not have had the same success we've had with Flacco.

    Personally, Flacco and Ryan are Tomato, TomAto to me.

    Both have warts, both are very good yet have some things to prove.

    I would have been happy with either. The only think thing I disagree with is that we wouldn't have had the same success with Ryan...I know that's your opinion but there is nothing substantial IMHO that would support that opinion. Maybe we do...maybe we don't. Nobody knows. I do think we'd have had a lot of success with Ryan...who knows how much though...it can't be substantiated.
    Although Walsh's system of offense can compensate for lack of talent; however, defense is a different story. According to Walsh, talent on defense was essential and could not be compensated for. What did Walsh do in 1981? He acquired physical and talented players on defense.




  2. #77

    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by Phantoom View Post
    HA! You're right. Leading your team to a game winning FG is completely different...

    Also, this:

    http://www.pro-football-reference.co...gle_season.htm

    http://www.pro-football-reference.co...gwd_career.htm

    But please, come up with some other reason why Matt Ryan isn't "clutch" and Joe is. Keep changing the definition until you are right.
    So we give Ryan credit for game winning drives in games where he threw 5 (FIVE!!!) and 3 picks? Seems kinda odd...




  3. #78
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Phantoom, you will never get it.

    Playing big in a regular season game is not the same as playing big in a championship game.

    Also, rookie Joe is not the same as fifth year Joe. Hence that is why people are trying to tell you that Flacco's stats are a bit skewed when it comes to playoff numbers - he played a lot of games as a young player when he was a lot less experienced, and not the same player he is now.

    Ryan sucked it up in his first three playoff seasons, maybe his numbers weren't showing how bad it was, but his mistakes came at the WORST times, and broke the Falcon's back.

    You couldn't find a better example of contrast in the two QB's in the respective championship games.

    Joe Flacco, in a collapsing pocket sees a wide open Ray Rice, but opts to throw for a wide open Jacoby Jones instead, even though the pass to Rice would have been "safer". It took balls, guts, and making the clutch throw with Von Miller in his face no less.

    Matt Ryan, in a clean pocket, panics and throws a pass on fourth down that is short of the yard marker to a well covered receiver and does not see a wide open Tony Gonzales who not only would have easily had the first down, he would have likely scored and won the game.

    Plays like this, which Joe has made in abundance in the playoffs and big games against quality opponents, are why most people would take Flacco over Ryan. I bet if you did a national poll, you'd now find most people wanting Flacco over Ryan.

    Stats don't make a QB elite. Coming up big makes you elite. Who would you rather have in a title game, Joe Montana, or Peyton Manning?




  4. #79
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by callahan09 View Post
    I ran the first 9/10 of a mile in 3 minutes, 20 seconds! That's on pace to break the world record! (Nevermind that I fell over and gasped for air and took 5 minutes to finish the rest of the race)
    Now you're talkin' ... ... Bc




  5. #80
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by Paintballguy View Post
    I understand stats. My point was that according to the win prob, Denver was HEAVILY favored to win and they lost.
    First of all, you're comparing two different kinds of advanced statistics. Win Probability is a well understood concept and is frankly, inarguable. The idea that they indicated we had a low probability of success is inaccurate is a puzzling statement. The reason the F-Bomb was such an impressive play is because not only was it a physical feat, but it was a MASSIVE turning point in a game which we were clearly about to lose.

    Sabremetrics are less well understood in terms of application to football, but they are totally unrelated to WPA, so I'm confused as to why you brought WPA up. It's like we were all talking about our favorite MeatLoaf album and you posted about how terrible meatloaf tastes. The two ideas merely sound the same, they're completely unrelated.
    My motto was always to keep swinging. Whether I was in a slump or feeling badly or having trouble off the field, the only thing to do was keep swinging. -Hank Aaron




  6. #81
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by ActualSpamBot View Post
    First of all, you're comparing two different kinds of advanced statistics. Win Probability is a well understood concept and is frankly, inarguable. The idea that they indicated we had a low probability of success is inaccurate is a puzzling statement. The reason the F-Bomb was such an impressive play is because not only was it a physical feat, but it was a MASSIVE turning point in a game which we were clearly about to lose.

    Sabremetrics are less well understood in terms of application to football, but they are totally unrelated to WPA, so I'm confused as to why you brought WPA up. It's like we were all talking about our favorite MeatLoaf album and you posted about how terrible meatloaf tastes. The two ideas merely sound the same, they're completely unrelated.
    Ok it may have came out wrong. My point is that sabermetrics are not the end all be all when it comes to evaluating players. It may be a big part, but it's not 100%.




  7. #82

    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by alienrace View Post
    Phantoom, you will never get it.

    Playing big in a regular season game is not the same as playing big in a championship game.

    Also, rookie Joe is not the same as fifth year Joe. Hence that is why people are trying to tell you that Flacco's stats are a bit skewed when it comes to playoff numbers - he played a lot of games as a young player when he was a lot less experienced, and not the same player he is now.

    Ryan sucked it up in his first three playoff seasons, maybe his numbers weren't showing how bad it was, but his mistakes came at the WORST times, and broke the Falcon's back.

    You couldn't find a better example of contrast in the two QB's in the respective championship games.

    Joe Flacco, in a collapsing pocket sees a wide open Ray Rice, but opts to throw for a wide open Jacoby Jones instead, even though the pass to Rice would have been "safer". It took balls, guts, and making the clutch throw with Von Miller in his face no less.

    Matt Ryan, in a clean pocket, panics and throws a pass on fourth down that is short of the yard marker to a well covered receiver and does not see a wide open Tony Gonzales who not only would have easily had the first down, he would have likely scored and won the game.

    Plays like this, which Joe has made in abundance in the playoffs and big games against quality opponents, are why most people would take Flacco over Ryan. I bet if you did a national poll, you'd now find most people wanting Flacco over Ryan.

    Stats don't make a QB elite. Coming up big makes you elite. Who would you rather have in a title game, Joe Montana, or Peyton Manning?
    I love this argument. I also love the cherry picking of two play. Allow me to cherry pick: If two plays go differently in the playoffs this year, then Joe goes 1-1, and Matt Ryan is heading to the super bowl. These plays don't even have to involve either QB, and yet they would change how "clutch" these QBs are.

    Also, I would take Montana, which means nothing because he is the best QB of all time. But let's compare contemporaries, shall we. Let's take Tom Brady, aka Mr. Clutch, and compare him to Peyton, aka, Mr. Choke. They have both played in over a seasons worth of playoff games (23 vs 24) so sample size is not an issue. Who do we think has a better QB rating in the playoffs? Oh, it's Mr. Choker himself! I guess "clutch" comes and goes as we please. It couldn't be that the Pats had a better defense and special teams all those years, could it? No! Clutch! Well surely Peyton threw more interceptions, right? Nope. Well I'm sure we will redefine clutch as "backbreaking" interceptions or something else that can't be quantified so you can continue to trust your gut over actual evidence. Or we will say that Tom lost this "clutch" gene (not that it is nonexistent).

    Quote Originally Posted by JohnBKistler View Post
    So we give Ryan credit for game winning drives in games where he threw 5 (FIVE!!!) and 3 picks? Seems kinda odd...
    [sarcasm]But real QBs only care about what happens in the last two minutes! Ryan is superclutch so who cares if he sucks for three quarters, those are just stats and all that matters IS THE LOOK IN HIS EYES AND W'S! Oh, and only the W's I decide are "big" matter. Anyone can win those regular season games in the last minute.[/sarcasm]

    I don't put any stock into GW drives. I was using it to disprove this idiocy of "clutch".

    Quote Originally Posted by Paintballguy View Post
    Ok it may have came out wrong. My point is that sabermetrics are not the end all be all when it comes to evaluating players. It may be a big part, but it's not 100%.

    I 100% agree with this. Again, just to be clear, I was never arguing that Ryan is better than Joe and that anyone who thinks otherwise is dumb. I was arguing that the thought that it is not a debate (and that Ryan is not a legit choice) is dumb.




  8. #83
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by Paintballguy View Post
    Ok it may have came out wrong. My point is that sabermetrics are not the end all be all when it comes to evaluating players. It may be a big part, but it's not 100%.
    This is a point I agree 100% with. Clearly, from a sabremetric view point, Matt Ryan is not just better than Joe, he's quite a bit better.

    But football is two complex a game to quantify right now. Consider Ed Reed's game in Denver. From a sabremetric standpoint, he was a non entity. No picks, no passes broken up, no stops behind the line, 2 tackles and an assist.

    From a film viewing perspective however, Ed was critical in keeping Peyton in check. He erased a hemisphere of field on every single pass play. Peyton was so dead set on avoiding Reed that he simply gave up on passing anywhere within 15 yards of him. That's something that you can only measure by watching film and understanding what you're seeing.

    WRT to the Ryan Flacco debate, Ryan is clearly a more proficient QB when he is A. Protected, B. Not under emotional pressure, and C. In a dome. Those are ideal conditions for a QB however, and the playoffs don't often present QBs with such cushy circumstances. When Joe is backed into a corner against elite talent, he has shown the aptitude and consistent ability to make big plays. Matt simply has not yet.

    So yes, if I was playing football in a lab, I'd take Ryan. On turf, against angry men hell bent on breaking the QB in half, in the wind and snow....

    FLACCO EVERY FUCKING TIME.
    My motto was always to keep swinging. Whether I was in a slump or feeling badly or having trouble off the field, the only thing to do was keep swinging. -Hank Aaron




  9. #84
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by ActualSpamBot View Post
    This is a point I agree 100% with. Clearly, from a sabremetric view point, Matt Ryan is not just better than Joe, he's quite a bit better.

    But football is two complex a game to quantify right now. Consider Ed Reed's game in Denver. From a sabremetric standpoint, he was a non entity. No picks, no passes broken up, no stops behind the line, 2 tackles and an assist.

    From a film viewing perspective however, Ed was critical in keeping Peyton in check. He erased a hemisphere of field on every single pass play. Peyton was so dead set on avoiding Reed that he simply gave up on passing anywhere within 15 yards of him. That's something that you can only measure by watching film and understanding what you're seeing.

    WRT to the Ryan Flacco debate, Ryan is clearly a more proficient QB when he is A. Protected, B. Not under emotional pressure, and C. In a dome. Those are ideal conditions for a QB however, and the playoffs don't often present QBs with such cushy circumstances. When Joe is backed into a corner against elite talent, he has shown the aptitude and consistent ability to make big plays. Matt simply has not yet.

    So yes, if I was playing football in a lab, I'd take Ryan. On turf, against angry men hell bent on breaking the QB in half, in the wind and snow....

    FLACCO EVERY FUCKING TIME.
    That's my point exactly. Also, you also have to consider the offense that Flacco has played in. He was asked to make more difficult throws than any other QB according to Greg Cosell.




  10. #85
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by Paintballguy View Post
    That's my point exactly. Also, you also have to consider the offense that Flacco has played in. He was asked to make more difficult throws than any other QB according to Greg Cosell.
    If true, is there a way for advanced stats to measure that?
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  11. #86
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by ActualSpamBot View Post
    So yes, if I was playing football in a lab, I'd take Ryan. On turf, against angry men hell bent on breaking the QB in half, in the wind and snow....

    FLACCO EVERY FUCKING TIME.
    Every. Fucking. Time.




  12. #87

    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    If true, is there a way for advanced stats to measure that?
    average distance to target... or something to that respect. Joe threw the most balls over 20,30 and 40 yards last time I saw such a stat posted.




  13. #88
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by jonboy79 View Post
    average distance to target... or something to that respect. Joe threw the most balls over 20,30 and 40 yards last time I saw such a stat posted.
    Does that count how hard an out route is to complete cause that's the only play your OC called and the defender's know it?
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  14. #89
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by Phantoom View Post
    Also, I would take Montana, which means nothing because he is the best QB of all time. But let's compare contemporaries, shall we. Let's take Tom Brady, aka Mr. Clutch, and compare him to Peyton, aka, Mr. Choke. They have both played in over a seasons worth of playoff games (23 vs 24) so sample size is not an issue. Who do we think has a better QB rating in the playoffs? Oh, it's Mr. Choker himself! I guess "clutch" comes and goes as we please. It couldn't be that the Pats had a better defense and special teams all those years, could it? No! Clutch! Well surely Peyton threw more interceptions, right? Nope. Well I'm sure we will redefine clutch as "backbreaking" interceptions or something else that can't be quantified so you can continue to trust your gut over actual evidence. Or we will say that Tom lost this "clutch" gene (not that it is nonexistent).
    You are proving my point. Yes, "backbreaking" interceptions cannot be quantified with stats, you have to look with your EYES, and take the CONTEXT.

    I don't put any stock into GW drives. I was using it to disprove this idiocy of "clutch".
    So, throwing a TD when you're team is up 27-7 is the same as throwing it when you are down 27-24 and it wins the game? The pressure, nerves, pysche, all the same? Are you kidding me dude? Really?

    I love this argument. I also love the cherry picking of two play. Allow me to cherry pick: If two plays go differently in the playoffs this year, then Joe goes 1-1, and Matt Ryan is heading to the super bowl. These plays don't even have to involve either QB, and yet they would change how "clutch" these QBs are.
    No, they would not. Again, you have to actually watch the games, watch what the QB's actually do throughout the game, with the plays they are involved in. Those plays weren't arbitrarily "cherry picked". They were what the two respective QB's did at the last moments of big games when the games were on the line and they had to make a play or go home. One came up big, one did not. And it's not even that one made a play and one didn't, it's HOW they made the plays, and HOW they took advantage of what the defenses gave them, or did not.

    What do players do to prepare for a game? Do they sit there and just look at stats, or do they watch game film?




  15. #90
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Matt's a good QB, Atlanta's lucky to have him and all the offensive talent with him. I think even if he had our offensive talent he'd still be a good QB. As far as winning games that matter? Joe and it's not even close, despite what some in this thread have said. I've seen most Atlanta fans (on their board) complain more about their defense than Ryan and I suppose that's true as well; those guys gave up the ghost after the Falcons offense put up 24 points to 0 in the first half. At the end of the day though, Ryan had a chance to put it away and instead threw a pick and muffed a snap. Those things can happen to anyone and I'm not condemning him for them but at the same time, Flacco usually does those bone-headed things in the regular season but in the post-season when it's win or go home, the man wins. He puts the team on his back, and we win. It isn't just this post-season that he's done that either.




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