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  1. #31

    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30



    Quote Originally Posted by GOTA View Post
    Ryan only has 2 more regular season wins than Flacco. I'm sure Ryan would give those up for the boatload of postseason wins that Flacco has.

    Normally I like Gil Brandt but I just don't follow his logic on this one.
    The logic is that Matt Ryan is superior in both standard statistics and advanced stats (which try to normalize for things like domes and receiver/o-line prowess) over a significant sample size.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

    And for all of Joe's "postseason heroics", he has exactly the same QB rating in his postseason career as Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan certainly has a better home field for stats, and has slightly better receivers, but has never had a great defense or running game like Joe, so comparing wins or postseason wins is dumb.




  2. #32
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Comparing stats is dumb too.

    Ryan lacks the "clutch gene". Don't give the 4th quarter comeback stat in the regular season. Ryan wilts in big games. Look, you saw him put up huge numbers in the NFCC game, and what did those numbers mean? Nothing, because he threw a costly pick and int when the game was in the balance.

    Joe has it in spades.

    You can't really compare QB's totally by stats. You have to actually watch them play.




  3. #33

    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    Matt Ryan reminds me of Tom Brady with a weaker arm. Good at reading defenses, not the best like Manning, but still good. I would not be surprised if he were to never be anything more than what he is now. A good QB who puts up descent stats with good WR's against shitty defenses in the regular season, and that's it.

    Switch Joe and Ryan in their teams and I would bet Joe would do better in Atlanta that Ryan does and Ryan would do worse than Joe here.
    I agree, which is pretty much the ranking process of a QB although completely hypothetical. I get why some dont think Joe is better when comparing them as is but when you add in the variables you listed, in favors Ryan a good bit, making his job a lot easier.

    Looking at their Stats, Ryan was pretty much comparable to joe statistically, until they added another #1 (id argue we dont have one truee #1 let alone 2) in Julio Jones did Ryan actually make a leap statistically. Thats if youre a stats guy. I just look at them play and I dont see the hype about Ryan at all. Jones White and Tony G do the work for him.
    -JAB




  4. #34
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by alienrace View Post
    Comparing stats is dumb too.

    Ryan lacks the "clutch gene". Don't give the 4th quarter comeback stat in the regular season. Ryan wilts in big games. Look, you saw him put up huge numbers in the NFCC game, and what did those numbers mean? Nothing, because he threw a costly pick and int when the game was in the balance.

    Joe has it in spades.

    You can't really compare QB's totally by stats. You have to actually watch them play.





    Stats leave so much out, they are almost pointless to bring to the table. If a guy has 50 td's a year that's awesome, but what if his team had the best starting filed position in the league? We'll that would be a huge advantage over a guy with 25 td's who has the worst starting filed position.

    While that was hypothetical, the point is stats do nothing but muddy the waters.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  5. #35

    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by alienrace View Post
    Comparing stats is dumb too.

    Ryan lacks the "clutch gene". Don't give the 4th quarter comeback stat in the regular season. Ryan wilts in big games. Look, you saw him put up huge numbers in the NFCC game, and what did those numbers mean? Nothing, because he threw a costly pick and int when the game was in the balance.

    Joe has it in spades.

    You can't really compare QB's totally by stats. You have to actually watch them play.
    I would love you to explain this "clutch gene" to me. Does Tom Brady have it?

    They have run stat studies, and basically no matter how you define "clutch", it turns out that people just play as well as they play. No QB has ever played significantly different from his career stats in the 4th quarter or on game winning drives or in the playoffs (given sample size). I find it hilarious that Matt Ryan would have been "clutch" if they had called the obvious pass interference at the end of the NFC Championship (or his D can hold a lead), or that Joe Flacco would be less "clutch" if a safety does his job in Denver.

    If Joe was more clutch, wouldn't he have better postseason stats than Matt Ryan, who is a "choker"?

    A lot of people used to believe in clutch in baseball too, where the statistics also proved them wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    [/B]



    Stats leave so much out, they are almost pointless to bring to the table. If a guy has 50 td's a year that's awesome, but what if his team had the best starting filed position in the league? We'll that would be a huge advantage over a guy with 25 td's who has the worst starting filed position.

    While that was hypothetical, the point is stats do nothing but muddy the waters.
    And this is why we have advanced stats (see what I linked) that normalize for things like that. Feel free to check them out.




  6. #36
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by Phantoom View Post
    I would love you to explain this "clutch gene" to me. Does Tom Brady have it?

    They have run stat studies, and basically no matter how you define "clutch", it turns out that people just play as well as they play. No QB has ever played significantly different from his career stats in the 4th quarter or on game winning drives or in the playoffs (given sample size). I find it hilarious that Matt Ryan would have been "clutch" if they had called the obvious pass interference at the end of the NFC Championship (or his D can hold a lead), or that Joe Flacco would be less "clutch" if a safety does his job in Denver.

    If Joe was more clutch, wouldn't he have better postseason stats than Matt Ryan, who is a "choker"?



    And this is why we have advanced stats (see what I linked) that normalize for things like that. Feel free to check them out.
    "There's lies, damn lies, and than there's statistics"

    Do advanced stats take into account playing at least 9 games a year in a dome with the greatest Tight end of all time and two #1 WR's, one of which just might be the best athlete in the entire NFL (Julio Jones). I doubt it. Or do they take into account the difference between playing the AFC north and the NFC South?
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  7. #37
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Yes lets just completely disregard Joe Flacco throwing a BOMB and Jacoby Jones making the play, and put all the blame on Rahim Moore, because safeties never ever make mistakes like that in coverage....

    Its like the whole argument about Ray Rice. "Oh if you take away his long 32 yard gains, he only has 3 YPA", yeah because long runs of 30-60 yards are totally irrelevant and worthless in a game.

    FO is alright, and certainly better than PFF IMO, but only 2 teams out of the past ten SB champs have had the top ranked DVOA, so I don't put too much stock into FO.




  8. #38

    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    "There's lies, damn lies, and than there's statistics"

    Do advanced stats take into account playing at least 9 games a year in a dome with the greatest Tight end of all time and two #1 WR's, one of which just might be the best athlete in the entire NFL (Julio Jones). I doubt it. Or do they take into account the difference between playing the AFC north and the NFC South?
    They actually do. Feel free to read up on them. They also (attempt to) normalize for defense quality, first down yardage, pass interference yards, and do common sense things like not counting hail mary INTs.

    Quote Originally Posted by leachisabeast View Post
    Yes lets just completely disregard Joe Flacco throwing a BOMB and Jacoby Jones making the play, and put all the blame on Rahim Moore, because safeties never ever make mistakes like that in coverage....

    Its like the whole argument about Ray Rice. "Oh if you take away his long 32 yard gains, he only has 3 YPA", yeah because long runs of 30-60 yards are totally irrelevant and worthless in a game.

    You are missing my point, which is that we are assigning a lot of value to "clutch", when wins are often in other players (or refs) hands. Two plays go differently and Flacco "can't lead a team to the Super Bowl" and Matt Ryan "Is finally putting it together" and taking his team to the super bowl. Everything changes for these two guys even though they did nothing different.

    As Ravens fans who went through what we did last year we should know the QB doesn't control postseason wins by himself.




  9. #39
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    I am actually fine with the ranking. It is meaningless next week.

    What struck me is how much younger Sam Bradford and Matt Stafford are than Flacco. It all kind of blurs together, but those guys seem so much more beaten up than Flacco. I think of Flacco as a guy that will be around for another decade and I feel like Bradford is about 1 hit away from retiring.




  10. #40

    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Flacco's post-season rating being the same as Ryan's is due mostly to Flacco's poor performance's in both his rookie and second year. It's not exactly surprising that he didn't do all that well in those games (especially considering he was hurt in one).

    And Ryan's receivers are not slightly better than Flacco's, there is a good bit of margin between them. White, Jones and Gonzo are number 1's on pretty much any team in the league.




  11. #41

    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by somedumbguy View Post
    I am actually fine with the ranking. It is meaningless next week.

    What struck me is how much younger Sam Bradford and Matt Stafford are than Flacco. It all kind of blurs together, but those guys seem so much more beaten up than Flacco. I think of Flacco as a guy that will be around for another decade and I feel like Bradford is about 1 hit away from retiring.
    Absolutely. I think the most underrated piece of value Flacco has is his durability. Bill Barnwell did a great job talking about this at the beginning of the year:

    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...-league-part-2

    Quote Originally Posted by Justlovemybirds View Post
    Flacco's post-season rating being the same as Ryan's is due mostly to Flacco's poor performance's in both his rookie and second year. It's not exactly surprising that he didn't do all that well in those games (especially considering he was hurt in one).

    And Ryan's receivers are not slightly better than Flacco's, there is a good bit of margin between them. White, Jones and Gonzo are number 1's on pretty much any team in the league.
    Fair enough, though this is probably balanced by having a better O-line, and a much better running game and defense. I definitely thing comparing their "standard" stats requires a lot of balancing, but the advanced stats do a good (not perfect) job of this.




  12. #42
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by Phantoom View Post
    They actually do. Feel free to read up on them. They also (attempt to) normalize for defense quality, first down yardage, pass interference yards, and do common sense things like not counting hail mary INTs.
    They attempt to take those things into account, but I am not buying it. How do you fully rank how much better there WR's corps is better than ours?

    Or if a defense is better or worse, does that mean it would the exact same against two different teams? Meaning, Pittsburgh may be the #1 D and while they play that way against us one week, will they be that against Atlanta the next week as well? No, people match up differently, so I don't buy advanced stats, or advanced advanced stats matter, or can accurately say who is a better QB.

    Hire's a question for you. DO you think Ryan would do better in Baltimore than Joe?
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  13. #43
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by Phantoom View Post
    The logic is that Matt Ryan is superior in both standard statistics and advanced stats (which try to normalize for things like domes and receiver/o-line prowess) over a significant sample size.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

    And for all of Joe's "postseason heroics", he has exactly the same QB rating in his postseason career as Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan certainly has a better home field for stats, and has slightly better receivers, but has never had a great defense or running game like Joe, so comparing wins or postseason wins is dumb.
    Brandt is the one who brought up wins. I actually hate using wins for any individual player for a team sport. His first line for why he chose Ryan was regular season wins. Obviously he must think that the most important criteria or he would have lead with something else.
    He Who Dares.....Wins




  14. #44
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    http://www.rrstar.com/blogs/matttrow...0-quarterbacks

    Now, I'm going to start off saying I don't like this guy, because he ranks Kaepernick, RG3, Luck, and Wilson 6-9, and says Ravens would trade Flacco for any of them in a heartbeat. That's just ridiculous. And throws in a slight dig, saying Atlanta probably would too, but not QUITE as quickly.

    But, when talking about Flacco, they bring up exactly why his postseason stats seem a bit odd...

    In that coldhardfootballfacts.com chart -- which included his first two playoff games this year -- Flacco ranked 17th out of 20 playoff quarterbacks in WPA, at 0.03 ahead of only Chad Pennington, Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick, and 16th in expected points added at 0.79. He was worth less than a point per game over a replacement level quarterback.

    But that's because he USED to be brutal. Flacco had nothing to do with Baltimore's first three playoff wins of his career, then got a gimme win over an overmatched Kansas City team. But Flacco has posted five straight playoff games with a passer rating of 95 or above the past two years. That's awfully good. And awfully consistent.
    All the 2008 playoff games were brutal Flacco. It was really the D making those games work. The in 2009, we played NE in a game where Joe was 4/10. That's because of HUGE plays by Rice and McGahee, and the D. We got knocked out by the Colts (In a game I apparently had totally forgotten, where Joe had a turnover to ice the game). Then in 2010, in the first game Joe really played well in, he had 2 TD and 265 yards. The next game against Pitt, Joe had us up by 14 at halftime, but he threw a pick combined with a Rice fumble to let the Steelers back in the game.
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  15. #45
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by RavenScallywag View Post
    http://www.rrstar.com/blogs/matttrow...0-quarterbacks

    Now, I'm going to start off saying I don't like this guy, because he ranks Kaepernick, RG3, Luck, and Wilson 6-9, and says Ravens would trade Flacco for any of them in a heartbeat. That's just ridiculous. And throws in a slight dig, saying Atlanta probably would too, but not QUITE as quickly.

    But, when talking about Flacco, they bring up exactly why his postseason stats seem a bit odd...



    All the 2008 playoff games were brutal Flacco. It was really the D making those games work. The in 2009, we played NE in a game where Joe was 4/10. That's because of HUGE plays by Rice and McGahee, and the D. We got knocked out by the Colts (In a game I apparently had totally forgotten, where Joe had a turnover to ice the game). Then in 2010, in the first game Joe really played well in, he had 2 TD and 265 yards. The next game against Pitt, Joe had us up by 14 at halftime, but he threw a pick combined with a Rice fumble to let the Steelers back in the game.
    I would consider trading Joe Flacco for Andrew Luck if it were after the season. I think Luck has the chance to to be Epic Hall of Fame multiple championships good in the right situation and I would take that chance. I think Joe can win multiple championships, just maybe with not as much style. I would not trade Flacco for any of the other three. Running QB's have short shelf lives. Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick are Haloti Ngata hits from a torn ACL and who knows if RGIII will ever be the same again.




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