Premature Discussion of Flacco's Mounting Hall of Fame Credentials

**callahan09** · 01-23-2013, 04:07 PM

First, a caveat: He's obviously not a lock at this moment in his career. In order for any of this to be relevant, he has to continue these trends for at least another 5 seasons, and preferably 10+ more seasons.

However... it is interesting to note:

The only quarterbacks to have as many or more playoff wins as Flacco, and as good or better of a passer rating in those wins, are:

Joe Montana - 16 Wins - 105.4 QB Rating
Brett Favre - 13 Wins - 107.3 QB Rating
Troy Aikman - 11 Wins - 109.2 QB Rating
Kurt Warner - 9 Wins - 110.0 QB Rating
Peyton Manning - 9 Wins - 104.3 QB Rating
Bart Starr - 8 Wins - 108.6 QB Rating
Steve Young - 8 Wins - 105.0 QB Rating
Eli Manning - 8 Wins - 100.1 QB Rating
Dan Marino - 8 Wins - 99.6 QB Rating

And then there's our boy:

Joe Flacco - 8 Wins - 98.7 QB Rating

First, a note on Bart Starr: His actually has credit for 9 wins, but I was being fair to everybody else and taking away his 1965 game against the Baltimore Colts where he was injured out of the game on the very first play. Frankly, he shouldn't get credit for that win.

Now, One thing I notice about that company is that all of them are either in the Hall of Fame (Montana, Young, Aikman, Starr, Marino), or absolute Hall of Fame locks (Favre, Warner, P. Manning, E. Manning), with the exception of Joe Flacco and Eli Manning.

Eli Manning has made a pretty good case for himself to get in some day, as well. Could Flacco be on pace to make a similar case?

By the way, the other QBs with as many or more play-off wins as Flacco (but with a lower QB Rating in those wins) are:

Tom Brady - 17 Wins - 93.8 QB Rating
John Elway - 14 Wins - 88.0 QB Rating
Terry Bradshaw - 14 Wins - 96.0 QB Rating
Roger Staubach - 12 Wins - 92.8 QB Rating
Ben Roethlisberger - 10 Wins - 88.2 QB Rating
Donovan McNabb - 9 Wins - 92.3 QB Rating
Jim Kelly - 9 Wins - 85.9 QB Rating
Jim Plunkett - 8 Wins - 88.6 QB Rating

First, a note on Staubach: he actually only has credit for 11 wins, but I'm being fair to him and including his stats and the win from the 1972 Divisional game against San Francisco, which he didn't start, but he came off the bench with 2 minutes left, down by 12, and won the game.

Now, Once again, that's some pretty grand company. You've got your Hall of Famers (Elway, Bradshaw, Staubach, Kelly), and your absolute Hall of Fame lock (Brady). Then of course you've got Roethlisberger, who may get in some day, and Donovan McNabb, who at one point in his career looked like a shoe-in, but after a drawn-out fade-out to end his career, may not be in the conversation anymore. Jim Plunkett is still in the conversation, and may still get in some day. If he doesn't, it's because he never had long-term success and wasn't good in the regular season. Obviously, there's also the matter that these three guys haven't been as instrumental to the win in their post-season victories as Flacco has been, as evidenced by their lower passer ratings in those games.

So accounting for all 17 players in NFL history with as much or more post-season success as Flacco, all but 4 are Hall of Fame guarantees. That's fantastic company, especially considering that 2 of those remaining 4 also have a good chance to go in some day, and the other 2 are on the fringes of the conversation, and 3 of the 4 who aren't locks were not as instrumental to their post-season successes for their teams as Flacco has been for the Ravens.

I guess what I'm trying to say is... Flacco has been building himself a nice little career here, that at its current trajectory, if we are fortunate enough for him to continue it, looks set for a ride all the way into Canton.

**somedumbguy** · 01-23-2013, 04:24 PM

I'll bite on this just because....

No. His current trajectory is not going towards Canton.

He needs to win a Superbowl, Then a second and maybe a third.

Throwing for over 4000 yards with 28-30 TD's and less than 10 interceptions every year for the next 8 years would probably help.

A season where he was NFL MVP or offensive player of the year would help.

Making a pro bowl would be good. I realize it is just a popularity contest sometimes, but if people don't think you are one of the top 2 or 3 QB's in your conference multiple times in your career while you are playing, it is hard to convince people 5 years after you retire that you were one of the best of your generation.

Playoff success is nice but for Canton, you need more and Joe does not have it..... yet. I love Joe and am happy he is my QB, but even with his success, his next 5 years need to be a LOT better than his last 5 before anybody could even start considering Canton. Nothing would make me happier if his carreer started to get closer towards a Canton trajectory, but right now, no.

**s.r.genovese** · 01-23-2013, 04:30 PM

Jim Plunkett isn't a HOF QB just because he won 2 Super Bowls.

I love Flacco as a player but stats do matter in HOF discussions. A QB isn't a pitcher; wins aren't all that important in the eyes of the selection committee.

At his current trajectory, no he is not a HOF player. Even if he maintains his current production and wins 2 Super Bowls, he still isn't a HOF QB. At his current trajectory, he'd prob end up with 1 Pro Bowl selection if he's lucky. Now, I know the Pro Bowl is generally a bunch of BS but the selection committee definitely takes Pro Bowls into account when picking HOFers.

However, I do think he has the ability begin to accumulate HOF numbers. Much like Eli started putting up Pro Bowl numbers after his Super Bowl win my hope is that Flacco jumps to the next level and starts averaging 4000 yards and 30ish TD's per year. If he can get there and continue that production for a number of years, he'll get some Pro Bowls and he'll be much closer to consideration for the HOF.

**crazyraven** · 01-23-2013, 04:35 PM

5 years in the league and Joe has 5 playoff appearances, 3 AFC championships, and now a Superbowl appearance. If he keeps that up he is a shoe in despite what some people may think...the guy is getting the job done. Is he not?

This is what you expect from a QB that was drafted in the first round, not like some other knuckles heads from years past who cost more than just a 1st rounder. Makes me sad about how many opportunities were lost for Ray.

**lovefootball** · 01-23-2013, 05:04 PM

I'll wait for his career to play out more. Love to hear the nay sayers, they have some sort of idea that they can call out what will happen. Five years and Flacco has made some elite QBs careers look pale in comparision to what Flacco has achieved. Time will tell and I for one would hope his career gets him into the HOF. Where are those predictors who said he wasn't going to be a QB to take the Ravens to a SB. Or the guys who said they would never pay top dollar for Flacco? Sit back and enjoy the ride that the Ravens are giving us. The guy who is taking the snaps and leading the offense has done a great job these 5 years. I'll be along for the ride for the rest of his career. Still Wacko for Flacco.

**Paintballguy** · 01-23-2013, 05:06 PM

Originally Posted by lovefootball

I'll wait for his career to play out more. Love to hear the nay sayers, they have some sort of idea that they can call out what will happen. Five years and Flacco has made some elite QBs careers look pale in comparision to what Flacco has achieved. Time will tell and I for one would hope his career gets him into the HOF. Where are those predictors who said he wasn't going to be a QB to take the Ravens to a SB. Or the guys who said they would never pay top dollar for Flacco? Sit back and enjoy the ride that the Ravens are giving us. The guy who is taking the snaps and leading the offense has done a great job these 5 years. I'll be along for the ride for the rest of his career. Still Wacko for Flacco.

:word Enjoy the fact that we have a legit franchise QB here in Baltimore and will for years to come.

**festivus** · 01-23-2013, 05:07 PM

Mr. Linta? Is that you? :)

**Filmstudy** · 01-24-2013, 07:47 PM

Originally Posted by somedumbguy

I'll bite on this just because....

No. His current trajectory is not going towards Canton.

He needs to win a Superbowl, Then a second and maybe a third.

Throwing for over 4000 yards with 28-30 TD's and less than 10 interceptions every year for the next 8 years would probably help.

A season where he was NFL MVP or offensive player of the year would help.

Making a pro bowl would be good. I realize it is just a popularity contest sometimes, but if people don't think you are one of the top 2 or 3 QB's in your conference multiple times in your career while you are playing, it is hard to convince people 5 years after you retire that you were one of the best of your generation.

Playoff success is nice but for Canton, you need more and Joe does not have it..... yet. I love Joe and am happy he is my QB, but even with his success, his next 5 years need to be a LOT better than his last 5 before anybody could even start considering Canton. Nothing would make me happier if his carreer started to get closer towards a Canton trajectory, but right now, no.

It seems pretty clear to me that if he wins the SB this season, 5 more seasons with either:
1. 5 more playoff wins
2. 1 SB win

will put him in Canton.

In the first case, he'd have 14 playoff wins and 1 SB. Look at the other players listed and tell me who has close to that resume and is not in? Plunkett is the only one on the list who won't make it. Warner will probably make it, and the others who aren't in already will all make it.

In the 2nd case he'd have 2 SB wins and as few as 12 playoff wins. That's got it easily as well.

Essentially, I'm telling you Joe Flacco could have all of the "foreground scenery" necessary as of 2/4/13. It won't matter if he doesn't make many (or perhaps any) Pro Bowls, he'll just need longevity and some additional, reasonable playoff success.

**leachisabeast** · 01-24-2013, 07:55 PM

If Ben Reothlisberger and Eli Manning are HOF worthy, then Flacco will be. IMO Flacco is the exact same type of player as both, not in the sense that they are similar types of players, all three are different. They aren't very flashy, but they are winners, and make the throws needed to win games, and can take over games when needed. I think in time Flacco will become even more polished than both anyway.

I think there is a good chance.

And how about Ray Rice? What are his chances? If he can stay healthy for the rest of his contract period, he is on pace to matching Marshall Faulks career numbers, and may even have a ring or two plus heaps of play off wins/appearances.

**callahan09** · 01-28-2013, 01:18 PM

I was just looking into something... It's well documented that Flacco is carrying some pretty impressive accolades for the start of a career, like being at the top or near the top of the leaderboards in categories like most wins, most play-off wins, etc. in the first five years of a career.

I was wondering how his 5-year span compares to other quarterbacks... and here's the kick: not just in their first 5 years, but over any 5-year span, period.

The results are pretty darn remarkable.

Flacco is currently sitting on a 5-year span with 62 wins. The only quarterbacks in NFL history to have a better 5-year span at any point in their careers are:

Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman, Brett Favre, and Terry Bradshaw. The only other quarterback to tie Flacco's 5-year span of 62 wins is Jim Kelly.

That's a list of 5 hall of famers who've bettered Flacco's current mark, and 1 hall of famer who tied it. Nobody else ranks up there. Wow.

He's also sitting on 8 post-season wins in a 5-year span. The only quarterbacks to beat that are:

Tom Brady, Troy Aikman, Terry Bradshaw, and Brett Favre.

Again, a list consisting exclusively of Hall of Famers. Flacco's 8 is tied, however, by Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jim Plunkett. All of whom have 2 rings, have been in the hall of fame conversation, and may get in some day.

If Flacco wins the Super Bowl this year, you can bump those numbers up to 63 wins and 9 post-season wins in a 5 year span, which puts him in a position where the only players EVER to match or better EITHER of those marks are:

Tom Brady, Troy Aikman, Terry Bradshaw, Brett Favre, and Peyton Manning.

The only players to match or better BOTH marks are:

Tom Brady, Troy Aikman, Terry Bradshaw, and Brett Favre.

And the only players to BETTER BOTH marks:

Tom Brady and Troy Aikman.

**callahan09** · 01-28-2013, 01:19 PM

And another interesting fact I uncovered...

There's been no shortage of talk about Flacco winning a post-season game in each of his first five years of his career. That's impressive. But what I had never heard before, until I researched it myself, was just how rare it is for a player to win a play-off game 5 seasons in a row at ANY point in their career...

No quarterback has EVER won a play-off game in 6 consecutive seasons, and only 6 have won one in 5 consecutive seasons. Besides Flacco, they are:

Tom Brady, Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre, Troy Aikman, and Ken Stabler.

Pretty good company there, too. What's even more impressive is who IS NOT on that list... Steve Young? Joe Montana? Terry Bradshaw? Jim Kelly? Peyton Manning? Bart Starr? John Elway? The list goes on and on...

By the way, Jim Kelly is the only other quarterback to ever win a play-off game in 4 straight years. Many noteworthy quarterbacks never won a play-off game in back-to-back years EVER. Ben Roethlisberger has only won a play-off game in back-to-back years one time, his rookie & sophomore seasons. Peyton Manning, also once: 2003 and 2004. Eli Manning? Never. Aaron Rodgers? Never. Drew Brees? Never.

If Flacco can keep up even close to the kind of success he's had in first five years, over the course of at least another 5 years, we're looking at somebody really special here.

**GOTA** · 01-28-2013, 01:34 PM

Originally Posted by Filmstudy

It seems pretty clear to me that if he wins the SB this season, 5 more seasons with either:
1. 5 more playoff wins
2. 1 SB win

will put him in Canton.

In the first case, he'd have 14 playoff wins and 1 SB. Look at the other players listed and tell me who has close to that resume and is not in? Plunkett is the only one on the list who won't make it. Warner will probably make it, and the others who aren't in already will all make it.

In the 2nd case he'd have 2 SB wins and as few as 12 playoff wins. That's got it easily as well.

Essentially, I'm telling you Joe Flacco could have all of the "foreground scenery" necessary as of 2/4/13. It won't matter if he doesn't make many (or perhaps any) Pro Bowls, he'll just need longevity and some additional, reasonable playoff success.

Is there any hall of famer from the modern era who has never made a Pro Bowl?