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  1. #1
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    For those who like Pro Football Reference, the 2012 AVs are now out.



    Here are how the Ravens break down:


    Ray Rice-13
    Joe Flacco-12
    Haloti Ngata-11
    Ed Reed- 11
    Anquan Boldin- 9
    Torrey Smith-8
    Cary Williams- 8
    Marshall Yanda-8
    Michael Oher- 8
    Dennis Pitta-8
    Jacoby Jones- 7
    Jameel McClain-7
    Matt Birk- 7
    Kelechi Osemele-7
    Bernard Pollard- 6
    Courtney Upshaw- 6
    Albert McClellan-5
    Paul Kruger- 5
    Dannell Ellerbe-5
    Ray Lewis-4
    Terrelll Suggs-4

    Some thoughts: McClain ahead of Kruger is a joke. In fact, anyone aside from Ngata, Flacco, Boldin, or Rice ahead of Kruger is a joke. McClain ahead of Ellerbe is ridiculous too.



    For some reason, all the ratings look super low this year. Brady and Adrian Peterson and RG3 each had an 18, to lead the NFL. Calvin Johnson, with a record-shattering season, managed a 14.

    I think it's time for those of who enjoy these to write them off, though. If Megatron gets a 14 and Patrick Peterson got a 21 last year on the virtue of his four punt return TDs (while getting torched all over the place at his actual cornerback position), I think the days of me using this as even a semi-valuable tool are winding down.




  2. #2
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    Re: For those who like Pro Football Reference, the 2012 AVs are now out.

    Even with just an AV of 4, Ray Lewis is likely going to get his adjusted AV total up to 159, tying him for 2nd place all time with Reggie White and Jerry Rice.

    Ed Reed moves into the top 100 of all-time using their rating system, joining Paul Krause (22nd heading into this season), Emlen Tunnell (36th) and Ronnie Lott (48th). Tunnel's ranking is amazing because his first two seasons in the NFL (1948 and 49) don't count in PFR's rating system because they are pre 1950. He had 17 INTs those first two excluded seasons and he is still 36th overall.

    Haloti Ngata is likely to move into the top 500 of all-time and Sizzle into the top 350 (despite a career-low AV of 4)




  3. #3

    Re: For those who like Pro Football Reference, the 2012 AVs are now out.

    Aren't Pro Bowl and All-Pro honors a significant portion of the AV calculation?

    If they are, that explains some of Ngata and Reed's inflated AV scores... since both went to the Pro Bowl pretty much totally on name recognition.

    I need to read the explanation of the AV formula again. Definitely some very quirky scores there.




  4. #4
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    Re: For those who like Pro Football Reference, the 2012 AVs are now out.

    Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
    Aren't Pro Bowl and All-Pro honors a significant portion of the AV calculation?

    If they are, that explains some of Ngata and Reed's inflated AV scores... since both went to the Pro Bowl pretty much totally on name recognition.

    I need to read the explanation of the AV formula again. Definitely some very quirky scores there.
    Reed's should probably have been a 9 or a 10, so an 11 isn't that far out of whack. Ngata's 11 is about right on the money. It was a subpar year for him, but considering his last two seasons were 17 and 18, I think we still forget how good he is when healthy. Even banged up and missing a game, he had a good season by everyone else's standards.

    Also, keep in mind that the Ravens pretty much only played 15 competitive games this year, as the Cincy game none of the regulars really did anything of note, which does impact score.




  5. #5
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    Re: For those who like Pro Football Reference, the 2012 AVs are now out.

    JJ Watt gets a 15. Aldon Smith and Navorro Bowman and Patrick Willis all gets a 13. Arian Foster gets a 10. Matt Ryan gets a 18.

    I give up.




  6. #6

    Re: For those who like Pro Football Reference, the 2012 AVs are now out.

    PFR's AVs aren't much better than ESPN's TQBR.

    We've still got a ways to go before we can rely on sabermatrics to give us an accurate idea of a player's value.
    For now, just take these numbers and rankings for what they're really worth--not much (yet).




  7. #7
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    Re: For those who like Pro Football Reference, the 2012 AVs are now out.

    Quote Originally Posted by PerpetuallyBored74 View Post
    PFR's AVs aren't much better than ESPN's TQBR.

    We've still got a ways to go before we can rely on sabermatrics to give us an accurate idea of a player's value.
    For now, just take these numbers and rankings for what they're really worth--not much (yet).
    I agree. I think the Sabermetrics in baseball have reached such a high level of determining player value, that these leave you so disappointed. Of course, baseball is such a one-on-one endeavor that it's so much easier to figure those things out.




  8. #8

    Re: For those who like Pro Football Reference, the 2012 AVs are now out.

    Have you guys read the formula for AV? I went back and re-read the explanatory article--it's a joke. It's basically just an amalgam of your typical "counting stats" (yards, sacks, INTs, etc.) vs. league average with BIG multipliers for games started/games played and postseason honors (Pro Bowl or All Pro.)

    I mean, it's better than nothing, but it's still way, way far away from actually approximating an individual player's value, particularly for comparative purposes. For example, it gave Ray Rice a 13 AV and CJ Spiller a 12 AV... primarily because Rice started all 16 games and got a Pro Bowl nod, while Spiller started only 7 and had no postseason honors. But Spiller was literally better in every single efficiency statistic than Rice (over 1.5 more YPC, almost 3 more YPR, more YPG, more TD/touch, fewer drops) and had a higher share of team yards (31% to Rice's 28%).

    I just don't see how any formula made by people as smart as the guys at Pro Football Reference would include the number of games played/started and Pro Bowl honors as such significant factors. Everyone knows the Pro Bowl is a friggin sham.




  9. #9
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    Pro bowl might be a joke but how can you argue that Spiller had greater value than Rice this year when he only played in 7 games?

    Playing is the ONLY way to provide value so while CJ might have done a better job than Ray in those 7 games, Ray did a much better job than Spiller in the other 9.
    My motto was always to keep swinging. Whether I was in a slump or feeling badly or having trouble off the field, the only thing to do was keep swinging. -Hank Aaron




  10. #10

    Re: For those who like Pro Football Reference, the 2012 AVs are now out.

    Quote Originally Posted by ActualSpamBot View Post
    Pro bowl might be a joke but how can you argue that Spiller had greater value than Rice this year when he only played in 7 games?

    Playing is the ONLY way to provide value so while CJ might have done a better job than Ray in those 7 games, Ray did a much better job than Spiller in the other 9.
    Ummm... what? Spiller STARTED 7 games, but he PLAYED in all 16. He was just in a rotation for the first half of the season. Spiller still had starter-type reps in the 9 games he didn't start, though. He had 150+ total yards his first 2 games of the season despite playing behind F-Jax.

    Ray Rice is a good back but Spiller is on another level. He was absolutely amazing every time he touched the ball this year. The only back who had a better year than Spiller was AP, IMO, even if others had more yards. That's why PFR's AV is so jacked up... for some reason Spiller got MAJORLY undervalued just because he didn't get the start on the official game log and Pro Bowl voters have no clue what football is or how it works.




  11. #11
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    Ah.. Misread your point and apparently confused Spiller with a completely different back who was hurt.

    Gonna go compare his production and respond more intelligently.
    My motto was always to keep swinging. Whether I was in a slump or feeling badly or having trouble off the field, the only thing to do was keep swinging. -Hank Aaron




  12. #12
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    Re: For those who like Pro Football Reference, the 2012 AVs are now out.

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    I agree. I think the Sabermetrics in baseball have reached such a high level of determining player value, that these leave you so disappointed. Of course, baseball is such a one-on-one endeavor that it's so much easier to figure those things out.


    Absolutely true.
    He Who Dares.....Wins




  13. #13
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    Re: For those who like Pro Football Reference, the 2012 AVs are now out.

    As someone who drafted Spiller on his fantasy team, he was an absolute monster this season. The Bills coach was an idiot for not giving him more touches.




  14. #14
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    Re: For those who like Pro Football Reference, the 2012 AVs are now out.

    Ok. Yea, Spiller played pretty damn well, but the idea that him getting one fewer point than Ray on an arbitrary Adjusted Value Scale is some kind of injustice is still a bit much. He had 7 more yards rushing per game, but 2 fewer TDs despite Ray sitting for basically the entire final game of the season. Had Ray played, and played average, then the rushing gap would be incredibly narrower and the TD and receiving yardage gap wider.

    CJ did a bit more, with a fewer touches than Rice which would argue that he is more explosive, not necessarily that he is more valuable. And frankly, they're only separated by one point.
    My motto was always to keep swinging. Whether I was in a slump or feeling badly or having trouble off the field, the only thing to do was keep swinging. -Hank Aaron




  15. #15
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    Re: For those who like Pro Football Reference, the 2012 AVs are now out.

    One of the things I don't like about AV is that if Wide Receiver A playing with Drew Brees in New Orleans catches 96/1315/11 he could easily get a higher AV score than WR B who catches 106/1512/9 catching balls from Jay Cutler/Jason Campbell in Chicago.

    If I understand their scoring system correctly, they take your unit (offense/defense) and look at how it ranks in the NFL and how much higher/lower it ranks than average. Based on that, it then calculates how much more of a percentage than the average you attained and multiplies that percentage on an average number to determine your "team offense points". Those points are then divided among all the offensive players.

    That strikes me as wrong, because it's a lot more impressive to get 1500 yards with Cutler playing half your games in cold-weather Chicago than it is to get 1300 yards from Brees with a guaranteed 9 games per year in a dome.

    Ogden's score gets dinged as a result. Was it his fault that Boller was such an underachiever or that the Ravens really had no weapons on offense other than Heap and occasionally Lewis? Ogden's best 4-year run of AV was 44. By comparison, Jahri Evans' current four-year total is 59. Both players made the Pro Bowl/1st team All-Pro all four years in question. Was Evans that much better? No, he fed off the strength of his teammates more (not to say he isn't a great player). He benefited from the Saints being a shootout type team and having no concern for defense.

    In my opinion, if a WR catches for 1500 yards for the 23rd ranked offense in the league, it's far more impressive than someone catching for 1300 yards for the league's #2 offense. Yet, PFR scores it in reverse of that logic.




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