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  1. #1
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    Stat Dump: Flacco plays better late in the season



    Not sure if this post belongs here, but I just wanted to do a little comparison of how Flacco plays late in the season... Beware, stat dump incoming:


    Joe Flacco in the final quarter (last 4 games) of the regular season + post-season
    (The numbers in the brackets at the end of each line are the splits for the first 12 games of the season. The percentages are really "percentile", that is the percent of qualifying players that he ranked better than)

    Season by season

    2012 (5 Games, Rank 6/30 = 80%): 77 / 128, 1061 Yards, 9 TD, 2 INT --> 103.7 QB Rating
    [85.0 QB Rating, Rank 18/34 = 47%]

    2011 (6 Games, Rank 11/30 = 63%): 108 / 171, 1197 Yards, 11 TD, 5 INT --> 93.1 QB Rating
    [78.3 QB Rating, Rank 21/31 = 32%]

    2010 (6 Games, Rank 9/29 = 69%): 99 / 155, 1024 Yards, 9 TD, 3 INT --> 94.1 QB Rating
    [92.8 QB Rating, Rank 10/31 = 68%]

    2009 (6 Games, Rank 12/30 = 60%): 82 / 138, 955 Yards, 7 TD, 4 INT --> 85.3 QB Rating
    [84.6 QB Rating, Rank 19/33 = 42%]

    2008 (7 Games, Rank 27/28 = 4%): 88 / 172, 1132 Yards, 3 TD, 6 INT --> 63.4 QB Rating
    [82.3 QB Rating, Rank 20/32 = 38%]

    Cumulative

    Since 2008 (30 Games, Rank 13/21 = 38%): 454 / 764, 5369 Yards, 39 TD, 20 INT --> 87.0 QB Rating
    [84.6 QB Rating, Rank 18/29 = 38%]

    Since 2009 (23 Games, Rank 8/21 = 62%): 366/592, 4237 Yards, 36 TD, 14 INT --> 93.8 QB Rating
    [85.0 QB Rating, Rank 16/30 = 47%]

    Since 2010 (17 Games, Rank 8/26 = 69%): 284 / 454, 3282 Yards, 29 TD, 10 INT --> 96.4 QB Rating
    [85.2 QB Rating, Rank 17/31 = 45%]

    Since 2011 (11 Games, Rank 7/26 = 73%): 185 / 299, 2258 Yards, 20 TD, 7 INT --> 97.7 QB Rating
    [81.6 QB Rating, Rank 21/31 = 32%]

    Since 2012 (5 Games, Rank 6/30 = 80%): 77 / 128, 1061 Yards, 9 TD, 2 INT --> 103.7 QB Rating
    [85.0 QB Rating, Rank 18/34 = 47%]

    Some analysis

    What I'm seeing is that Flacco is typically below average (what I'd consider below the 50th percentile) in the first 3 quarters of the season, but plays better than average at the end and in the post-season. There are two exceptions in each case: He played above average in the 2010 early season, and below average in the 2008 (rookie year) late season.

    This year, as you can see from the stats above, he has been the 6th best quarterback since (and including) the Redskins game (and yes, that includes the Denver game, too!). He's got a 103.7 QB Rating in the past 5 games, including the two losses at Redskins and versus Denver (also includes the Cincinnati game that he only played two series' in). I think that's pretty impressive, that even including 2 games he is considered to have lost for his team (though I know that's a load of malarky about the Redskins game... after all his turnovers were past, he led to the team to another touchdown to give the team an 8-point lead... that's the definition of doing what you must to win, but the defense and special teams let the other guys come right back to take it from us), his stats still look really good.

    Since 2009 (so just excluding his rookie year), he has had a 93.8 QB rating in the final quarter of the regular season + play-offs combined. I'll take that any day. The man steps it up late in the year, and that's not an insignificant factor in why we get into the play-offs and win play-off games every year.

    That has been improving ever since, as well. His cumulative late-season QB Rating has improved every year since his rookie year, to an all-time high this season.




  2. #2
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    Re: Stat Dump: Flacco plays better late in the season

    I've been saying this for awhile that Flacco is clutch. There is a reason why he has 60 wins in his first 5 years.




  3. #3
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    Re: Stat Dump: Flacco plays better late in the season

    Quote Originally Posted by Paintballguy View Post
    I've been saying this for awhile that Flacco is clutch. There is a reason why he has 60 wins in his first 5 years.
    hey man some people seem to forget we if it wasn't for lee evans bitch ass flacco would have a ring by now, no doubt we would have waxed the giants.




  4. #4

    Re: Stat Dump: Flacco plays better late in the season

    Quote Originally Posted by callahan09 View Post
    Not sure if this post belongs here, but I just wanted to do a little comparison of how Flacco plays late in the season... Beware, stat dump incoming:


    Joe Flacco in the final quarter (last 4 games) of the regular season + post-season
    (The numbers in the brackets at the end of each line are the splits for the first 12 games of the season. The percentages are really "percentile", that is the percent of qualifying players that he ranked better than)

    Season by season

    2012 (5 Games, Rank 6/30 = 80%): 77 / 128, 1061 Yards, 9 TD, 2 INT --> 103.7 QB Rating
    [85.0 QB Rating, Rank 18/34 = 47%]

    2011 (6 Games, Rank 11/30 = 63%): 108 / 171, 1197 Yards, 11 TD, 5 INT --> 93.1 QB Rating
    [78.3 QB Rating, Rank 21/31 = 32%]

    2010 (6 Games, Rank 9/29 = 69%): 99 / 155, 1024 Yards, 9 TD, 3 INT --> 94.1 QB Rating
    [92.8 QB Rating, Rank 10/31 = 68%]

    2009 (6 Games, Rank 12/30 = 60%): 82 / 138, 955 Yards, 7 TD, 4 INT --> 85.3 QB Rating
    [84.6 QB Rating, Rank 19/33 = 42%]

    2008 (7 Games, Rank 27/28 = 4%): 88 / 172, 1132 Yards, 3 TD, 6 INT --> 63.4 QB Rating
    [82.3 QB Rating, Rank 20/32 = 38%]

    Cumulative

    Since 2008 (30 Games, Rank 13/21 = 38%): 454 / 764, 5369 Yards, 39 TD, 20 INT --> 87.0 QB Rating
    [84.6 QB Rating, Rank 18/29 = 38%]

    Since 2009 (23 Games, Rank 8/21 = 62%): 366/592, 4237 Yards, 36 TD, 14 INT --> 93.8 QB Rating
    [85.0 QB Rating, Rank 16/30 = 47%]

    Since 2010 (17 Games, Rank 8/26 = 69%): 284 / 454, 3282 Yards, 29 TD, 10 INT --> 96.4 QB Rating
    [85.2 QB Rating, Rank 17/31 = 45%]

    Since 2011 (11 Games, Rank 7/26 = 73%): 185 / 299, 2258 Yards, 20 TD, 7 INT --> 97.7 QB Rating
    [81.6 QB Rating, Rank 21/31 = 32%]

    Since 2012 (5 Games, Rank 6/30 = 80%): 77 / 128, 1061 Yards, 9 TD, 2 INT --> 103.7 QB Rating
    [85.0 QB Rating, Rank 18/34 = 47%]

    Some analysis

    What I'm seeing is that Flacco is typically below average (what I'd consider below the 50th percentile) in the first 3 quarters of the season, but plays better than average at the end and in the post-season. There are two exceptions in each case: He played above average in the 2010 early season, and below average in the 2008 (rookie year) late season.

    This year, as you can see from the stats above, he has been the 6th best quarterback since (and including) the Redskins game (and yes, that includes the Denver game, too!). He's got a 103.7 QB Rating in the past 5 games, including the two losses at Redskins and versus Denver (also includes the Cincinnati game that he only played two series' in). I think that's pretty impressive, that even including 2 games he is considered to have lost for his team (though I know that's a load of malarky about the Redskins game... after all his turnovers were past, he led to the team to another touchdown to give the team an 8-point lead... that's the definition of doing what you must to win, but the defense and special teams let the other guys come right back to take it from us), his stats still look really good.

    Since 2009 (so just excluding his rookie year), he has had a 93.8 QB rating in the final quarter of the regular season + play-offs combined. I'll take that any day. The man steps it up late in the year, and that's not an insignificant factor in why we get into the play-offs and win play-off games every year.

    That has been improving ever since, as well. His cumulative late-season QB Rating has improved every year since his rookie year, to an all-time high this season.
    Good stuff. I see that you are including post season when you calculate your percentile. Wouldn't that be slightly skewed because not every QB in the league can make the playoffs if in fact you are bumping up Joe's stats against everyone else?




  5. #5
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    Re: Stat Dump: Flacco plays better late in the season

    Quote Originally Posted by pslholder96 View Post
    Good stuff. I see that you are including post season when you calculate your percentile. Wouldn't that be slightly skewed because not every QB in the league can make the playoffs if in fact you are bumping up Joe's stats against everyone else?
    But it would do the opposite if he had horrible postseason stats. Right?
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  6. #6
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    Re: Stat Dump: Flacco plays better late in the season

    Quote Originally Posted by pslholder96 View Post
    Good stuff. I see that you are including post season when you calculate your percentile. Wouldn't that be slightly skewed because not every QB in the league can make the playoffs if in fact you are bumping up Joe's stats against everyone else?
    Hi thanks for your question. I am including post-season stats for everyone who played in the post-season, but all quarterbacks can qualify, not just the ones who played in the post-season. It's a comparison, basically, of how quarterbacks are playing down the stretch towards the end of the season and in December/January/February. Whether the player made it there is not necessarily something that will bump Flacco. Tony Romo is above Flacco in most years, but he didn't make it to the post-season. Some quarterbacks might have been higher than Flacco if you didn't include post-season, but dropped below because of playing poorly in the post-season, such as Matt Ryan, which I think makes sense because if you're only playing well PART OF THE TIME late in the year (regular season but not play-offs) then your ranking should reflect that. So it is all-encompassing. I hope that makes sense to explain my reasoning.




  7. #7
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    Re: Stat Dump: Flacco plays better late in the season

    Quote Originally Posted by Saltwater_Rider View Post
    But it would do the opposite if he had horrible postseason stats. Right?
    Exactly.




  8. #8

    Re: Stat Dump: Flacco plays better late in the season

    Quote Originally Posted by Saltwater_Rider View Post
    But it would do the opposite if he had horrible postseason stats. Right?
    Good point.




  9. #9
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    Re: Stat Dump: Flacco plays better late in the season

    Quote Originally Posted by Jsmoove View Post
    hey man some people seem to forget we if it wasn't for lee evans bitch ass flacco would have a ring by now, no doubt we would have waxed the giants.
    Is Lee Evans still curled up in a corner somewhere?




  10. #10
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    Re: Stat Dump: Flacco plays better late in the season

    Quote Originally Posted by Ravens27Girl View Post
    Is Lee Evans still curled up in a corner somewhere?
    he should be, thats gotta be as one of the biggest choke moments in the history of the NFL.




  11. #11
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    Re: Stat Dump: Flacco plays better late in the season

    Quote Originally Posted by Jsmoove View Post
    hey man some people seem to forget we if it wasn't for lee evans bitch ass flacco would have a ring by now, no doubt we would have waxed the giants.
    Every time I see that play, I get so pissed off. Flacco couldn't have thrown that ball any better.




  12. #12
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    Re: Stat Dump: Flacco plays better late in the season

    Quote Originally Posted by Paintballguy View Post
    Every time I see that play, I get so pissed off. Flacco couldn't have thrown that ball any better.
    tell me about it.




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