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Thread: Ellerbe

  1. #16
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    Re: Ellerbe



    Quote Originally Posted by leachisabeast View Post
    It will come down to Paul Kruger or Dannell Elerbee, and I think we're better off with Ellerbe, he has been that good whenever he's been on the field this year.

    A full offseason staying injury free and living up to his contract could make Ellerbe one of the top ILB's in the game, not even joking.
    Ellerbe is a bit old for a 4th year player, but I still think he will get a contract in the 4 year/ $18 million range if I had to guess. That's about $1 million more per year than the contract that Jameel got.

    McClain is expendable if Ellerbe is re-signed, but I'm not sure that means you cut him. I think McClellan has emerged into a very solid player and he can probably do what Jameel does for half the price. The decision facing the Ravens is whether to keep Jameel for a cap hit of $4.2 million or to part ways and eat $1.2 in dead money towards the 2013 cap. That's not an easy one.

    I know that a lot of people think it's either/or with re-signing Kruger or Ellerbe, but I'm not 100% sure on that. If we opt to clear Jameel's $3 million off the books, that gives us $8.4 million to spread between 99 and 59 and I think that should be roughly enough to make market-pay-level offers to both players. I think Kruger/Ellerbe will probably command in the $9-10 million range annually between then, but we can certainly structure their contracts in a way that we are replacing the outgoing Lewis/McClain contracts with the Kruger/Ellerbe re-signings.

    Of course, if we cut one of Jacoby/Quan, that would free up even more money and maybe we could keep McClain and still re-sign the other two. However, IMO, Jones and Boldin are more valuable cogs than McClain, who is very mediocre in my opinion. If we went into 2013 with Ellerbe/McClellan/Bynes/Rookie (or perhaps NigelCarr)/Ayanbadejo as our five MLB, I'd be content, particulary if it allowed us the cap flexibility to have some type of Upshaw/Suggs/Kruger rotation at OLB (with Hamilton, Kindle, McAdoo competing for that 4th OLB spot).




  2. #17

    Re: Ellerbe

    Quote Originally Posted by iggyman555 View Post
    Aaron Wilson ‏@RavensInsider

    Ray Lewis' retirement will save Ravens $4.35 million in salary-cap space

    http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/r...,7305107.story
    i have a feeling cap space won;t be a problem next year. there's a lot of money on this page that will be pushed out.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/teams/bal/roster




  3. #18

    Re: Ellerbe

    Quote Originally Posted by Bhcforlife View Post
    The one thing with Ellerbe to be careful with is how he will handle the big payday. He has had supposed work ethic issues in the past, and if they sign him, he's going to have to be one of the defensive leaders with Suggs, Ngata, and Webb since Ray and Ed will be gone. He's having his best year in his contract year...just need to make sure they are getting THIS Ellerbe for the next several years and not the one that was out of shape and in the dog house the past couple years. I think they have to sign him because they just don't have anyone else, but they have to be careful, too.
    Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
    This is a good point. As much as I hate to say it you have to always be wary of players whose best year is also a contract year. I'd like to think Ellerbe's work ethic/discipline issues are a thing of the past, and they very well may be, but the team needs to be careful.

    The real shame is the McClain contract, which actually may have been the same "contract year" effect. He appears to have been overrated and the money he got looks excessive--plus, they can't really get out of the contract. Let's hope that doesn't have a negative effect on their chance to re-up Ellerbe.

    I will say this--the Ravens have never been wild about letting veterans go and hoping young draftees can step up in year 1, even if they're highly drafted. None of the Ravens' first picks under Harbaugh have been expected to be day-one starters except Oher. Flacco and KO were each supposed to sit on the bench for a year. Kindle, Cody, Jimmy Smith, and Upshaw all DID start out on the bench. I think they'd much prefer to spend the money on Ellerbe rather than expect a rookie to step right in next to McClain.
    Totally agreed with both of you.

    The "contract year" stuff is very, very real here and it is definately something to be concerned with.

    And I said this last offseason, I was not a McClain fan at all...and even with Ellerbe, I think the difference in ability is extremely obvious...I don't think I've ever seen McClain make the plays that Ellerbe has over the last half of the season...and that's without Ray next to him. It said a lot to me too that he didn't get any sniffs out in UFA when he hit the market...nobody else in the league really valued him. I hope if they keep him, they still draft an ILB early to compete with and eventually take his job.
    Although Walsh's system of offense can compensate for lack of talent; however, defense is a different story. According to Walsh, talent on defense was essential and could not be compensated for. What did Walsh do in 1981? He acquired physical and talented players on defense.




  4. #19

    Re: Ellerbe

    I like Ellerbe, not enough to give him starter money.His 2009 rookie season with Mattison as DC was very nice.Since that from 2010-2012.. 3 Different DCs (Mattison, Pagano and now Pees) started McClain not Ellerbe.

    Anyway he has never had a 16 games season and he seems to struggle with injuries and form. Let him have a 16 games season, then you can pay him.




  5. #20
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    Re: Ellerbe

    Quote Originally Posted by elland View Post
    I like Ellerbe, not enough to give him starter money.His 2009 rookie season with Mattison as DC was very nice.Since that from 2010-2012.. 3 Different DCs (Mattison, Pagano and now Pees) started McClain not Ellerbe.

    Anyway he has never had a 16 games season and he seems to struggle with injuries and form. Let him have a 16 games season, then you can pay him.
    That's great in theory, but we don't have that option. We either need to pay him now or watch him go to another team. It's not like Ellerbe will take a 1 year contract at backup money when 8-10 other teams across the league will offer him 4 years of starter-level money.




  6. #21

    Re: Ellerbe

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    That's great in theory, but we don't have that option. We either need to pay him now or watch him go to another team. It's not like Ellerbe will take a 1 year contract at backup money when 8-10 other teams across the league will offer him 4 years of starter-level money.
    8-10 other teams really? If so we have to let him go.




  7. #22
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    Re: Ellerbe

    Quote Originally Posted by Section 502 Raven View Post
    i have a feeling cap space won;t be a problem next year. there's a lot of money on this page that will be pushed out.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/teams/bal/roster
    True, but that's not the way you have to look at it. Every year, you are going to push out a ton of $ off your cap, but you have to look at in the context of what you add back on as well.


    We are likely to have the following contracts off the books:

    Ray Lewis ($4.35 million cap savings from 2012)
    Matt Birk ($2.75 million savings----although I'm not as sure as some here that this is a given)
    Ed Reed ($9.6 million cap savings)
    Bobbie Williams ($1.2 million cap savings)
    Bryant McKinnie ($4.2 savings)
    Cary Williams ( $1.9 million...i am operating under the assumption that he won't re-sign with us, which is less than a 10% chance IMO)

    Right there, between those six players, there is $24 million. That seems significant, but not when you look at the salary increases ahead for the roster.

    Note: There are other veterans on the roster who are unlikely to be back (Bajema, Kemoeatu, Ighedibo, Chris Johnson, Considine). However, I don't think they factor too much into the equation because their salaries ($540k to $700k) are really not significantly higher than if a rookie replaces them next year. I'm going to consider their cap savings to be essentially a wash.

    So what does that $24 million really save us this offseason??

    Ray Rice's cap # increases 750k
    Marshall Yanda's cap # increases $3.8 million
    Sam Koch's increases $300k
    Haloti Ngata's increase is $1.1
    Terrell Sugg's increase is $1.5
    Jimmy Smith's increase is roughly $350k
    Pollard's increase is $1.3
    Oher's is roughly $800k
    Jacoby Jones' cap # goes up $3.3 million
    Corey Graham goes up $1.1 (still a good value at $2.4 million though)
    Webb goes up $2.7 million

    So, right there by my math, our cap is set to go up $17 million just right there. So suddenly that $24 million no longer looks so good.

    Also, when you factor in the incrimental increases to all our drafted players (Upshaw $260k, Torrey Smith $150k Osemele $150k) that has a small impact. There are also a ton of players scheduled to get a $90k raise this year (Justin Tucker, Bobby Rainey, Deonte Thompson, Omar Brown, Gradkowski, Asa Jackson, Chykie Brown, Pernell McPhee, Jah Reid, Bernard Pierce, Josh Bynes, Mount Cody, Tommy Streeter, Adrian Hamilton, Deangelo Tyson, Bryan Hall). I'm not sure the impact of those $90k increases as much will depend on who they replace and how many of them make the 2013 team, but I'm going to safely estimate that between all the players above, including 2nd rounders Upshaw, Smith, and Osemele, that takes another $1.5 of available money away from the cap.

    So now we are down to $5.5 million...and we haven't even gotten to the upcoming Restricted FAs. I'm not sure what the Ravens will do with David Reed or Ramon Harewood or Morgan Cox (probably low or no tenders), but the other four players who are eligible (Pitta, Dickson, McClellan and Art Jones) are all ultra-valuable contributors and will certainly be tendered. I would imagine Pitta, Jones, and McClellan would get a 2nd round tender and get the $1.9 million contract. Round-of-draft tenders are far too risky for any of those 3. Dickson I would guess would get the round-of-draft tender at $1.3 million (I can't imagine anyone giving up a 3rd rounder for Dickson).

    That means the following increases:

    $1.4 for McClellan
    $1.4 for Jones
    $1.3 for Pitta
    $500k for Dickson.

    So there is another $4.6 million off the cap space, which means we have $900k in available cap space.

    Now, in truth, it's more than that because I haven't calculated Flacco, Ellerbe, and Kruger yet. All will be UFAs and, in theory, if all 3 left, it would free up another $10.5 million. However, let's try to structure this in a way that we can keep all three.

    Flacco is making $8 million in 2012. Let's assume we can work out a long-term deal with him in the $13-$15 million range. Let's also assume that we structure the deal so that his cap # in 2013 only goes up $1 million. Now we are dealing with a $100k deficit.

    Kruger is making $800k. Let's assume he gets a raise into the $5 million/year range (roughly where I expect him to be). Let's assume the Ravens give him a small starting salary and a nice signing bonus and his 2013 cap # is around $3.5. That's a 2.7 raise and puts us $2.8 over the cap.

    Ellerbe is making $1.9 million. Let's assume he signs in the $4-4.5 range. Again, let's assume his first-year cap # is around $3 million. That's a $1.1 increase and puts us $3.9 over the cap.

    Let's assume that we cut Boldin, and I think it's a given that he won't be back at his current pay rate---a cut/re-signing might be the more viable option. That saves us $6 million. Now we are $2.1 on the good side.

    Let's also assume that we cut Jameel McCLain. That saves us $3 million and we are now $5.1 on the plus side.

    That $5.1 million leaves us very limited room to do anything in free agency. First off, note that the $5.1 million doesn't include any potential rookie salary upgrades if we were happen to get an extra 2nd or 3rd rounder somewhere during the draft. Secondly, it basically gives us room for one good free agent or two decent ones.

    Now if we would cut Jacoby, that frees up another $4 million, which would put us $9.1 million under the cap. That could give us room to re-sign Boldin and still have $5-6 million to improve the roster elsewhere.

    I think in summary it is possible to keep Ellerbe and Kruger, but only at the expense of some combination of Jacoby/Quan/Jameel or potentially all three. The only other possible cuts that would make any salary cap sense are Sam Koch (highly unlikely since it's only a $1 million savings) and Leach ( $3 million savings)

    If you are expecting big waves in Free Agency, even after Lewis' retirement, that's unrealistic. However, Lewis' retirement did help the 2013 cap a good bit, but it is hardly a huge opening to bring in other FAs. It likely just allows us to keep/retain one out of Jones/Boldin/McClain/Kruger/Ellerbe that we would have lost or had to cut otherwise.

    And if you think 2013 is bad, wait until 2014 when the Ravens will have Oher, Pitta, McClellan, Art Jones, Graham, Jacoby (if not cut), Boldin (if not cut) and Leach all become FAs and Ngata, Webb, Rice, and Flacco will all have cap-crippling raises that year too. This is why it's so hard to have 5 straight playoff appearances in today's NFL.




  8. #23
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    Re: Ellerbe

    Quote Originally Posted by elland View Post
    8-10 other teams really? If so we have to let him go.
    I disagree, unless his contract demands exceed $4 million/year. He's definitely better than McClain, who does very little for the amount of snaps he sees IMO. McClain has been our worst defensive starter in each of the last two years in my opinion.

    You have to keep in mind, Elland, that the Ravens of a history of seeing their bench players/swing starters get starter-caliber money with other franchises. If they want to compete for his services next year, they are going to need to pay him competitively.




  9. #24
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    Re: Ellerbe

    Also, I must edit my earlier posts. If we cut, McClain, I believe our cap savings would only be $1.8 million, since we would be on the hook for $2.4 in dead money versus his $4.2 salary for 2013. However, we would be free of any contractual obligation as of 2014. That worsens the situation.




  10. #25

    Re: Ellerbe

    His ability in pass coverage is what gives him a huge boost. I wouldn't throw the kitchen sink at him but im definatly fine with paying him a good ammount. Him beside a rookie would look okay with Suggs and Upshaw/Kruger (pass downs) on the outside




  11. #26

    Re: Ellerbe

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    I disagree, unless his contract demands exceed $4 million/year. He's definitely better than McClain, who does very little for the amount of snaps he sees IMO. McClain has been our worst defensive starter in each of the last two years in my opinion.

    You have to keep in mind, Elland, that the Ravens of a history of seeing their bench players/swing starters get starter-caliber money with other franchises. If they want to compete for his services next year, they are going to need to pay him competitively.
    Rigth player rigth price.

    You may believe Ellerbe is a more talented than McClain.. and you may be rigth.

    Is he also a better leader? More dependable? More durable? + deadmoney (McClain),

    Is Ellerbe the leader we need year 0 after Ray.. Ellerbe who have had two dissapointing seasons 2010-2011, and then he is performing better on a defense ranked 17th in yards and 12th in score.

    And then you are telling me 8-10 teams wants him.. If that is so I do believe his agent will tell him to do what Cary W. is doing, decline Ravens offer and ask for more.




  12. #27
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    Re: Ellerbe

    Quote Originally Posted by elland View Post
    Rigth player rigth price.

    You may believe Ellerbe is a more talented than McClain.. and you may be rigth.

    Is he also a better leader? More dependable? More durable? + deadmoney (McClain),

    Is Ellerbe the leader we need year 0 after Ray.. Ellerbe who have had two dissapointing seasons 2010-2011, and then he is performing better on a defense ranked 17th in yards and 12th in score.

    And then you are telling me 8-10 teams wants him.. If that is so I do believe his agent will tell him to do what Cary W. is doing, decline Ravens offer and ask for more.
    You bring up good points.

    Let me argue back that I'm not sure that the Ravens are hosting a playoff game in 2.5 days if not for Ellerbe this year. I'm not sure they make the playoffs in fact. You can argue that he was our 4th best defensive player this past year behind Ngata, Pollard, and Kruger. Ellerbe possesses a level of play that McClain doesn't. I wouldn't call him a great LB, but he was well above average for the bulk of the time he saw the field this past year. We saw flashes of it as a rookie, and then it went into hibernation for two years, and this year it returned. I'd much rather roll the dice on his abilities than accept the mediocrity of McClain.

    I think Josh Bynes, an undrafted 2nd year player who was on the practice squad less than two months ago, has played significantly better than McClain did at any point this past year. McClain can't cover anyone on passing downs, doesn't make any splash plays, and misses far too many tackles in comparison with the amount he makes. I think he's a great human, but as a linebacker, he is a backup-caliber MLB in my opinion. Ellerbe is starter-caliber and even above-average starter-caliber at times. That's why I'd prefer to keep him. You can find Jameel McClains fairly easily, but finding someone who can play like Ellerbe has this past year is a far tougher task.

    Ellerbe is a bigger risk for sure, but if you want to win a Super Bowl, you need to gamble on guys like Ellerbe. Jameel McClain just isn't the type of MLB who can lead a defense to a championship without having great contributions from those around him. Ellerbe has shown enough these past 3 months to make me think he has that type of potential that McClain lacks.




  13. #28
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    Re: Ellerbe

    Guess I'm not the only one who think if we go into next year with our current crop of ILB's were in trouble. Sorry but we need to resign Ellerbe, AND use a high draft pick on a immediate contributor there. Cut McClain if needed, although with all his cap numbers ad dead money you might as well leave him on the squad if next year is less dead money to cut him, or we have more space.

    Edit: Guess I should've put. Need to resign Ellerbe at no more than wha McClain got. Period. If he wants more than he can go elsewhere, but I doubt teams are gonna be linning up to throw more money at him. Not as a one year wonder.




  14. #29
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    Re: Ellerbe

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    You bring up good points.

    Let me argue back that I'm not sure that the Ravens are hosting a playoff game in 2.5 days if not for Ellerbe this year. I'm not sure they make the playoffs in fact. You can argue that he was our 4th best defensive player this past year behind Ngata, Pollard, and Kruger. Ellerbe possesses a level of play that McClain doesn't. I wouldn't call him a great LB, but he was well above average for the bulk of the time he saw the field this past year. We saw flashes of it as a rookie, and then it went into hibernation for two years, and this year it returned. I'd much rather roll the dice on his abilities than accept the mediocrity of McClain.

    I think Josh Bynes, an undrafted 2nd year player who was on the practice squad less than two months ago, has played significantly better than McClain did at any point this past year. McClain can't cover anyone on passing downs, doesn't make any splash plays, and misses far too many tackles in comparison with the amount he makes. I think he's a great human, but as a linebacker, he is a backup-caliber MLB in my opinion. Ellerbe is starter-caliber and even above-average starter-caliber at times. That's why I'd prefer to keep him. You can find Jameel McClains fairly easily, but finding someone who can play like Ellerbe has this past year is a far tougher task.

    Ellerbe is a bigger risk for sure, but if you want to win a Super Bowl, you need to gamble on guys like Ellerbe. Jameel McClain just isn't the type of MLB who can lead a defense to a championship without having great contributions from those around him. Ellerbe has shown enough these past 3 months to make me think he has that type of potential that McClain lacks.
    id argue when he was on the field he was the best. I wouldn't even mention ngata he's been poor after he got hurt early. That's no fault of his own but he hasn't been one of our best.

    Ellerbe, Kruger surprisingly, art jones recently, pollard, Graham recently.

    No one has dominated the length of the season, pollard has had poor stretches as well. But every game ellerbe was fit, he was our best player, without a doubt in my mind.

    Coming from a guy who would have cut bait with him this past offseason. He's been a great player this year. I just hope it's not the looming contract has out that fire in his belly




  15. #30
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    Re: Ellerbe

    Quote Originally Posted by arnie_uk View Post
    id argue when he was on the field he was the best. I wouldn't even mention ngata he's been poor after he got hurt early. That's no fault of his own but he hasn't been one of our best.

    Ellerbe, Kruger surprisingly, art jones recently, pollard, Graham recently.

    No one has dominated the length of the season, pollard has had poor stretches as well. But every game ellerbe was fit, he was our best player, without a doubt in my mind.

    Coming from a guy who would have cut bait with him this past offseason. He's been a great player this year. I just hope it's not the looming contract has out that fire in his belly
    Good discussion. I don't think there's a clearcut best Raven defender this year like we had with Ngata in 2009 and 2010 and Sizzle last year and Reed in 2008.

    You could argue that Ellerbe has been our best and I'd mildly disagree, but I don't think you are wrong by any means. Same with Pollard. He's been consistent, but probably has had a few more down moments than Ellerbe. Heck, you can even argue that Cary Williams has been our best defender this year mainly because he's been the only one of our starters who has been healthy and contributed all year. After a rough stretch in games 2-3, he turned in a very consistent season at a position where consistency was critical.

    For my money, I'd still go with Ngata as the defensive MVP. He's had a bad year by his standards, but the bar was so friggin high that even a down year, he was still our most dominant defender....although that's not saying a whole lot this year.




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