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Thread: Dropped passes

  1. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
    Drops are a subjective statistic. But when you get deep into the weeds of "well, that pass hit him in both hands, but it would have been a hard catch, so it's not actually a drop..." that's just too far down the rabbit hole. I suspect the list cited by the OP uses that kind of methodology--i.e., a drop means an "easy" catch that wasn't completed. But how do you define "easy" and "hard"? The methodology needs to be simpler and less subjective than that.

    If an NFL receiver gets both hands on a pass but doesn't complete the process of the catch, it's a drop. I'm not saying all drops are created equal... some are obviously worse than others... but you've got to at least TRY to draw a line in the sand as to what is and isn't.

    Pitta had to extend fully to make the play on that 3rd down pass in the first quarter... but he got both hands on the ball. That's a drop. It's not as bad a drop as most, but it's a drop. It's a play that you make. That's the dictionary definition of a "drop".

    Having said all that, I really don't think our problems with drops are worse than most... it just happens to be that we pass the ball deeper downfield than most offenses and we do a worse job than most teams of extending drives and getting first downs. When you have so few opportunities and each one counts so much, each drop just FEELS worse.
    Great post.

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  2. #38

    Re: Dropped passes

    I don't agree with the dropped numbers either. A dropped pass is subjective and if you change the definition, it would change the entire results of the dropped passes list.

    I look at completion as it relates to completion/targets. Of course, using that metric isn't reliable to know how well a receiver is doing, since a target doesn't mean it is catchable.

    I have the added benefit of being able to go back to a game, and filtering out and watching all plays where Torrey is targeted, and the pass is incomplete. Then I can get a picture of whether or not it is catchable, overthrown, defended, etc..

    You also can't correlate targets with drops. 4 drops in 98 targets sounds amazing, until you know that only 44 of the 98 (I actually came up with 99) targets were completed. That's a drastic difference even taking into consideration throw-aways, overthrows, defended passes or PI calls. To say that Torrey has 4 drops in 98 targets doesn't mean anything, because I guarantee you there were more than 4 "catchable" balls in the 45/99 incomplete passes where he was targeted.

    Just for an idea of completions by targets, here's a chart:



    While you can't necessarily use this as a 'Who is most reliable' chart, it does give you a general idea of where we are more efficient, and when a specific receiver is targeted whether it will end up being complete or not.




  3. #39

    Re: Dropped passes

    Our receivers struggle to get separation in this offense, especially against press coverage, so when they drop a pass the impact is magnified, especially since it tends to happen on 3rd down.
    It also seems like we have streaks where we drop nothing for a few games then have that one game with 5 or 6 drops.

    When this offense implodes, everyone gets in on the act: QB, WR, TE, OL, RB, Coaches.

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  4. #40
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    Re: Dropped passes

    Quote Originally Posted by FlawlessVictory View Post
    I don't agree with the dropped numbers either. A dropped pass is subjective and if you change the definition, it would change the entire results of the dropped passes list.

    I look at completion as it relates to completion/targets. Of course, using that metric isn't reliable to know how well a receiver is doing, since a target doesn't mean it is catchable.

    I have the added benefit of being able to go back to a game, and filtering out and watching all plays where Torrey is targeted, and the pass is incomplete. Then I can get a picture of whether or not it is catchable, overthrown, defended, etc..

    You also can't correlate targets with drops. 4 drops in 98 targets sounds amazing, until you know that only 44 of the 98 (I actually came up with 99) targets were completed. That's a drastic difference even taking into consideration throw-aways, overthrows, defended passes or PI calls. To say that Torrey has 4 drops in 98 targets doesn't mean anything, because I guarantee you there were more than 4 "catchable" balls in the 45/99 incomplete passes where he was targeted.

    Just for an idea of completions by targets, here's a chart:



    While you can't necessarily use this as a 'Who is most reliable' chart, it does give you a general idea of where we are more efficient, and when a specific receiver is targeted whether it will end up being complete or not.
    Looks like you put some time into it. How many games did you review or does this cover?
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  5. #41
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    Re: Dropped passes

    lol only 5 targets to torrey smith in the short middle. what a joke.




  6. #42
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    Re: Dropped passes

    Quote Originally Posted by Paintballguy View Post
    lol only 5 targets to torrey smith in the short middle. what a joke.
    it has to be a subset of games, it only shows Rice with 1 target
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  7. #43
    This is for the year, up to the Denver game...

    The 1 target for Rice was only deep right.. we don't send him deep right too often




  8. #44

    Re: Dropped passes

    Quote Originally Posted by nickh0801 View Post
    A lot of us on here have been complaining about dropped passes, but apparently the Ravens have the least amount in the AFC North. Torrey has the most on the team at 4

    Link
    To my eyes and what I would consider as a "drop", Boldin has far more "drops" than Torrey. And, more than 4, as well.
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  9. #45
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    Re: Dropped passes

    Quote Originally Posted by FlawlessVictory View Post
    This is for the year, up to the Denver game...

    The 1 target for Rice was only deep right.. we don't send him deep right too often
    seems very low considering how many total attempts Flacco has this year. I guess he has 200 over or under throws that you didn't count?
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  10. #46

    Re: Dropped passes

    Quote Originally Posted by Ravenswintitle View Post
    seems very low considering how many total attempts Flacco has this year. I guess he has 200 over or under throws that you didn't count?
    The targets are broken down by distance. I don't recall more than one deep attempt to Rice (this year). As for overall attempts to Rice, the charts show has 76 targets. It shows 18 Short Left, 25 Short Middle, 32 Short Right. That also seems correct to me. I don't see any attempts that were obviously missed.




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