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  1. #37
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    Re: Does Joe Flacco, a/k/a Joe Statue, have a Low Football IQ?



    Quote Originally Posted by Haloti92 View Post
    Why is 75% completion percentage that important? I am curious. It seems a bit arbitrary.

    How often does the rest of it occur? Also curious.
    Well completion percentage is relevant because the higher it is, the more command the offense should have on the game. If you're completing 50% of your passes, it probably means you're susceptible to a lot of stalled drives because of those incompletions. If you're completing 75% of your passes, it should mean you're moving the ball at will, more or less.

    That's why there's a near perfect win rate when the performance looks like Joe's did, completion percentage and all.

    But, just because you asked, here's the results if you take completion percentage out of the equation:

    227 such performances since 2008, and the QB record in those performances is 198-29, including Flacco's loss yesterday, which is still an .872 winning percentage!

    And hey, I could get behind making the argument that it's about efficiency at quarterback, not raw numbers. So how about we consider that Flacco threw the ball 21 times, and had a rating of 121.4. That takes into account his efficiency as well as how involved he was in the game.

    So how many performances of at least 21 attempts with a rating of 121.4 or better have occurred since 2008? 229.

    QB record in such performances: 210-19, for a winning percentage of .917! It holds up over time, as well. I looked as far back as 1988 (that's the past 25 seasons) and in 849 such performances, QBs have a record of 772-77, which is a .909 winning percentage.

    When quarterbacks pass as well as Flacco did yesterday, they win at least 9 out of 10 times.




  2. #38

    Re: Does Joe Flacco, a/k/a Joe Statue, have a Low Football IQ?

    Quote Originally Posted by callahan09 View Post
    Prior to the Ravens loss yesterday, the last time a team lost when their quarterback threw 3+ TDs, no more than 1 INT, 75% or better completion percentage, and 8+ yards per attempt was September 23, 2007. Philip Rivers w/ the Chargers @ Green Bay.

    That was 74 games in a row where the quarterback had that kind of performance and the team won the game.

    So out of the last 75 occurrences (64 of which have been since Flacco entered the NFL), the ONLY TIME the team lost the game was Yesterday.

    So how about we don't blame Flacco for yesterday's loss, mmkay?
    Quote Originally Posted by Haloti92 View Post
    Why is 75% completion percentage that important? I am curious. It seems a bit arbitrary.

    How often does the rest of it occur? Also curious.
    Not sure what the relevance of 75% specifically is, but a PERFECT (158.3) passer rating requires 77.5%, so maybe just the allusion to that lends the relevance?

    Another bit of context that should be added to the stats above--what was the OPPOSING QB's rating in each of those games? The guys at www.coldhardfootballfacts.com have used a set of "Quality Statistics" to analyze and predict game outcomes for a while now. One of their quality stats is Passer Rating Differential--basically, which QB had a higher rating. Unsurprisingly, they've found that higher QB ratings tend to correlate with winning in terms of both game-day comparisons and over the course of a season.

    Although Joe had a 120+ rating yesterday, RGIII's rating was higher. I would wager that in all (or most) of the games you looked at, the winning QB simply had the higher rating, and it's quite rare to have a game where BOTH QB's have such a good rating.




  3. #39

    Re: Does Joe Flacco, a/k/a Joe Statue, have a Low Football IQ?

    Quote Originally Posted by RavenMan View Post
    Wow, what game were you watching? He slid to his left, he saw it fine what he did wrong was not decide to either throw it away immediately or take the sack.

    Its amazing how some people see what they want to prove something.
    I agree people see what confirms their bias. He was in the process of throwing the ball when he was hit. It wasn't a fumble recovery, it was a forward pass that was deflected and then caught. Getting hit while throwing took all the steam out of the ball.




  4. #40
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    Re: Does Joe Flacco, a/k/a Joe Statue, have a Low Football IQ?

    Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
    Not sure what the relevance of 75% specifically is, but a PERFECT (158.3) passer rating requires 77.5%, so maybe just the allusion to that lends the relevance?

    Another bit of context that should be added to the stats above--what was the OPPOSING QB's rating in each of those games? The guys at www.coldhardfootballfacts.com have used a set of "Quality Statistics" to analyze and predict game outcomes for a while now. One of their quality stats is Passer Rating Differential--basically, which QB had a higher rating. Unsurprisingly, they've found that higher QB ratings tend to correlate with winning in terms of both game-day comparisons and over the course of a season.

    Although Joe had a 120+ rating yesterday, RGIII's rating was higher. I would wager that in all (or most) of the games you looked at, the winning QB simply had the higher rating, and it's quite rare to have a game where BOTH QB's have such a good rating.
    Thanks for your contribution to the conversation. While that correlation may be real (I didn't look into opposing QB ratings for those games), I think it only goes further to prove that the quarterback isn't to blame in such losses. It comes down to defense at that point. It's the defense for allowing the other team's QB to be even better. If a quarterback can play that well, but the other team's QB also plays very well and his team loses, again, it comes down to the defense.




  5. #41

    Re: Does Joe Flacco, a/k/a Joe Statue, have a Low Football IQ?

    Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
    Not sure what the relevance of 75% specifically is, but a PERFECT (158.3) passer rating requires 77.5%, so maybe just the allusion to that lends the relevance?

    Another bit of context that should be added to the stats above--what was the OPPOSING QB's rating in each of those games? The guys at www.coldhardfootballfacts.com have used a set of "Quality Statistics" to analyze and predict game outcomes for a while now. One of their quality stats is Passer Rating Differential--basically, which QB had a higher rating. Unsurprisingly, they've found that higher QB ratings tend to correlate with winning in terms of both game-day comparisons and over the course of a season.

    Although Joe had a 120+ rating yesterday, RGIII's rating was higher. I would wager that in all (or most) of the games you looked at, the winning QB simply had the higher rating, and it's quite rare to have a game where BOTH QB's have such a good rating.
    Interesting and good post. I still think the 75% comp. rate is so prohibitive as to make the data meaningless. The other stats he was sorting by make more sense, they are not all that freakish like a 75% comp rate. Using his comp. rate criterion you are looking at very rare games, and almost certainly games where the QB has limited attempts, 16/21 in this case, or Alex Smith-like 17 for 19, with limited total yardage, etc.

    Best rating I have seen by a losing QB (and I haven't searched really hard) is Romo's loss to the Giants last year, 37-34, where he finished 21/31 for 321 yds, 4 TDs/0 INTs (0 fumbles), and a rating of 141.3. Eli's stats for that game were 27/47 for 400 yds, 2 TDs/1 INT (0 fumbles), and a rating of 90.7. The interesting thing about those stats is that ESPN's proprietary QBR stat gives Eli the higher performance (Eli QBR: 78.1; Romo QBR: 74.6). So apparently Romo had more time and more open receivers, etc or something that made his clearly superior statistical results less notable than Eli's. And on that note, ESPN's QBR for Flacco yesterday was 54.2 compared to RG3's 43.7

    In any event, Joe obviously did not lose us the game, lol. And to me, not too many people are claiming that as much as (over)analyzing the turnovers to see if there is some kind of issue there. Which may or not be considered an interesting or legitimate topic depending on who you ask.
    Last edited by Haloti92; 12-10-2012 at 04:10 PM.




  6. #42

    Re: Does Joe Flacco, a/k/a Joe Statue, have a Low Football IQ?

    Quote Originally Posted by callahan09 View Post
    Well completion percentage is relevant because the higher it is, the more command the offense should have on the game. If you're completing 50% of your passes, it probably means you're susceptible to a lot of stalled drives because of those incompletions. If you're completing 75% of your passes, it should mean you're moving the ball at will, more or less.

    That's why there's a near perfect win rate when the performance looks like Joe's did, completion percentage and all.

    But, just because you asked, here's the results if you take completion percentage out of the equation:

    227 such performances since 2008, and the QB record in those performances is 198-29, including Flacco's loss yesterday, which is still an .872 winning percentage!

    And hey, I could get behind making the argument that it's about efficiency at quarterback, not raw numbers. So how about we consider that Flacco threw the ball 21 times, and had a rating of 121.4. That takes into account his efficiency as well as how involved he was in the game.

    So how many performances of at least 21 attempts with a rating of 121.4 or better have occurred since 2008? 229.

    QB record in such performances: 210-19, for a winning percentage of .917! It holds up over time, as well. I looked as far back as 1988 (that's the past 25 seasons) and in 849 such performances, QBs have a record of 772-77, which is a .909 winning percentage.

    When quarterbacks pass as well as Flacco did yesterday, they win at least 9 out of 10 times.
    Great stuff. I figured the percentages would be high, but those are even higher than I imagined.

    In any event, see my response to bmorecareful's post (which I read and responded to before your above post because I check new posts backwards when I re-visit threads, lol) about whether Flacco should shoulder any blame. In short, not really.




  7. #43
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    Re: Does Joe Flacco, a/k/a Joe Statue, have a Low Football IQ?

    I have been hard on Flacco recently, but I still think he's our guy, we just need to put him in better position than we have this year. I think he doesn't have the greatest IQ and maybe never will, one of the downsides of drafting a small school player for a position like QB.




  8. #44

    Re: Does Joe Flacco, a/k/a Joe Statue, have a Low Football IQ?

    Quote Originally Posted by leachisabeast View Post
    I have been hard on Flacco recently, but I still think he's our guy, we just need to put him in better position than we have this year. I think he doesn't have the greatest IQ and maybe never will, one of the downsides of drafting a small school player for a position like QB.
    Yeah, that really back-fired on the Steelers.




  9. #45
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    Re: Does Joe Flacco, a/k/a Joe Statue, have a Low Football IQ?

    Quote Originally Posted by JohnBKistler View Post
    Yeah, that really back-fired on the Steelers.
    Ben came from a small school, but it wasn't Delaware. Miami of Ohio would crush Delaware any day of the week.

    And just because I said that, I didn't apply to to EVERY QB coming from small schools, just most. History does not lie that most of the greats came from big time colleges. Besides, it's not like Ben has the greatest of IQs him self, if it wasn't for his pocket poise, and ability to extend plays/get out of the pocket, he wouldn't be all that great. He makes some TERRIBLE decisions at times.




  10. #46

    Re: Does Joe Flacco, a/k/a Joe Statue, have a Low Football IQ?

    Quote Originally Posted by leachisabeast View Post
    Ben came from a small school, but it wasn't Delaware. Miami of Ohio would crush Delaware any day of the week.

    And just because I said that, I didn't apply to to EVERY QB coming from small schools, just most. History does not lie that most of the greats came from big time colleges. Besides, it's not like Ben has the greatest of IQs him self, if it wasn't for his pocket poise, and ability to extend plays/get out of the pocket, he wouldn't be all that great. He makes some TERRIBLE decisions at times.
    Ok...fair enough. I just don't think school size pre-determines how a QB will play in the NFL. Maybe Kurt Warner is the better example?




  11. #47
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    Re: Does Joe Flacco, a/k/a Joe Statue, have a Low Football IQ?

    Quote Originally Posted by JohnBKistler View Post
    Ok...fair enough. I just don't think school size pre-determines how a QB will play in the NFL. Maybe Kurt Warner is the better example?
    I wouldn't at all say that it pre determines anything, but there is a reason why they are playing for small schools and not a bigger school like Georgia or Bama. They are raw players normally that are drafted because of their physical tools and gifts, they have to be really stand out players to be drafted, let alone first round picks. Flacco and Ben were drafted for their size and physical tools, but it really is no surprise that both of them make some despicable mistakes that you wouldn't see a Matthew Stafford doing normally. That's not saying that Stafford is better than Ben or even Joe, Ben is clearly the better QB. But you have to think that Stafford came into the league much more refined with much better coaching than what Ben or Joe had where they came from.

    And on Kurt Warner, it took him a while, don't forget that he had to go through Europe before he became a star.




  12. #48

    Re: Does Joe Flacco, a/k/a Joe Statue, have a Low Football IQ?

    Quote Originally Posted by bacchys View Post
    I agree people see what confirms their bias. He was in the process of throwing the ball when he was hit. It wasn't a fumble recovery, it was a forward pass that was deflected and then caught. Getting hit while throwing took all the steam out of the ball.
    Okay, well this is much more critical of Joe than my assessment. You maintain that he saw the blitz but stubbornly continued with the play call getting hit and intercepted in the red zone. I was willing to go with him being unaware... you maintain that he just had really bad judgement.




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