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Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread
Hang on now...just because Lane Johnson "may" be picked in the top 15 (because of the lack of quality OT's in this draft) doesn't mean that he is worth a top 15 pick. Nor does that mean that he has a higher probability of success because of his drafted position.
If the Ravens are thinking of moving up to draft a LT, then they should just throw the chips on the table and see about moving up to take Eric Fisher or if Luke Joeckel slides out of the top 5, move up to take him.
Other than that? Stand pat and look at guys like Quessenberry, Faulk, Xavier Nixon, or even Brian Winters because the drop off between those guys and Lane Johnson is not so drastic to be worth the amount of picks it would take to move up into the teens.Disclaimer: The content posted is of my own opinion.
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02-06-2013, 02:41 PM #2127
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Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread
Oher was a 1st round pick and KO was a 2nd round pick. I have no problem picking up another Tackle at 32 but there really are no guarantees that he'll be a better Left Tackle than Oher or KO. The 3rd OT in this draft is not really a sure thing. I don't see Ozzie spending a lot to trade up for a someone like that. It's not something he does. Now if Johnson falls into the low 20's then it's possible. It's way too early to really get a sense of things so we'll just have to wait and see what things look like after the Combine.
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02-06-2013, 02:52 PM #2128Hall Of Fame Poster
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Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread
I wouldn't mind seeing that research, because I don't buy into this line of thinking at all.
Everyone understands that 1st round picks are overall more likely to pan out than later picks by at least some margin. But are you trying to claim that there's some sort of special characteristic of LTs that makes it even MORE essential to take them in the 1st, and particularly in the top 15, or else they have a much lower chance of success? Sounds like hogwash to me.
Since 2005 the following OTs have been drafted in the top 15. Outright busts are bolded and "questionable" guys are italicized: Jammal Brown, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Levi Brown, Joe Thomas, Chris Williams, Ryan Clady, Jake Long, Eugene Monroe, Andre Smith, Jason Smith, Anthony Davis, Russell Okung, Trent Williams, Tyron Smith, Matt Kalil
That's 4 busts and 5 "questionables" out of 15. That's a hit rate of less than 50%. Even if that's a higher hit rate than anywhere else in the draft is it really THAT much higher to guarantee that you NEED to get your LT at that range in the draft? I don't think that's true at all.
The data I've cited suggest (not very strongly because they haven't been regressed or otherwise controlled of course) that of any 2 OTs taken in the top 15 of the draft, one of them will bust or otherwise not play at an elite level (maybe needing to be moved to RT, etc.) How about instead of giving up your whole draft for 50% odds, just stand pat and maximize your odds elsewhere? The Ravens should just stay put where they are and see what falls to them.
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Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread
Wicked if I recall correctly posted some stuff about it a little while back. He looked into the top tackles in the league in relation to their draft position and there was a strong correlation between the tackles taken top 15 and their overall NFL rankings as LTs.
You're looking at it from the wrong angle. I'm not saying that all top 15ish tackles are guaranteed all-stars. But if you want to find an all-star tackle, chances are he's getting picked in that range.
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Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread
There isn't any phantom money, I'm just assuming the Ravens extend a few contracts and make some moves, we will be able to afford a safety if all falls into place. Maybe I'm a little hopefull about them signing Flacco, but where is the money going to come from to franchise him? Its going to be 20 million dollars.
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02-06-2013, 03:21 PM #2132
Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread
And that is my take as well.
Outside of the top 15, most of the "rest of the best" were picked from 15-40. Players liek Staley, Duane brown and Andrew Whitworth fall into this category. Veldheer, Peters, and Gaither are a rare breed. And it's said when i have to include Gaither, as there are that few God-great LT's outside the first round. If I didn't include Gaither I would have to include Bushrod and Marshall Newhouse. Don't really think they are good at all.
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Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread
Btw, I'm still trying to figure out how Cordy Glenn fell so far in the draft, he started almost every game at LT this year, and looked almost as good as Matt Kalil did.
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02-06-2013, 03:47 PM #2134
Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread
In all seriousness, we can't really talk trading up until after FA. Needs of the other 31 and who-may-draft-whom will change once cats like Albert, Clady, Long, Wallace, Welker and Vollmer find a home.
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02-06-2013, 03:52 PM #2135
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02-06-2013, 03:58 PM #2136
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Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread
Well Manti Te'o will likely be available when the Ravens pick. Heck, he might be available when the Ravens pick in the second round. Anyone still interested?
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