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  1. #1651

    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread



    Quote Originally Posted by alien bird View Post
    I like a lot of the players you mentioned, but I just don't see it playing out like that at all.

    The problem with this scenario is that I just don't think the Ravens are going to be able to get those kind of value picks in trade. Although it's not a fool-proof standard, the trade value chart suggests that Arizona would be overpaying with their 2nd (520 pts) and 3rd (235 pts) to move up six spots (590 pts), so if I were the Ravens I would probably make that trade, too, considering Arizona's 2nd (520 pts) and 4th (88 pts) are more than the value of the Ravens' 1st (590 pts) - 2nd and 3rd would be a steal. Also, the Ravens' 3rd (116 pts) and 4th (44 pts) combined aren't worth anyone's 2nd rounder (last pick in 2nd is 270 pts). The Ravens' draft picks have to essentially be looked at as one round lower, because in reality that's about where they are drafting. I would love for the Ravens get that kind of trade value for picks, but I just don't see it.
    I tend to agree. Since the Ravens will get 4 comp picks they MUST use that are TBD, and our draft slot will be late. We will have 11 picks. I doubt 11 guys will even be close to making the team. I would consider trading our slotted picks for picks in the 2014 draft which you receive better value for. I agree that since our slot is so late, they wont have much trade value in this draft of 2013. Trade the excess for picks in 2014 could be better value for offseason trades or trade value next year or could bring better draft value in 2014. I would consider trading Dickson if we draft Ertz or Eiffert also.
    Last edited by Boulderraven; 01-27-2013 at 09:08 PM.




  2. #1652
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    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Raveninwoodlawn View Post
    I actually think a lot of those QB's will just be taken early...similar to the 2011 draft.

    We thought teams would be anxious to trade back into the bottom of the first, but those teams just went ahead and overdrafted those guys in the top 11.

    I see a similar draft this year.

    While I think trading down is a strong possibility, I don't think it will be quite the haul that we may be assuming.


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    You know, at one point I did agree with you, but I think that the QB's that everyone thought could be potential 1st round picks really fucked up their draft stock at the Senior Bowl. The only QB who improved his stock was EJ Manuel. As inconsistent as that dude is, I *could* see a team using a late 1st round pick on him because of his upside, size, and mobility.

    Glennon, Nassib, Wilson...those guys were really bad. Definitely didn't do themselves any favors.
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  3. #1653

    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by wickedsolo View Post
    You know, at one point I did agree with you, but I think that the QB's that everyone thought could be potential 1st round picks really fucked up their draft stock at the Senior Bowl. The only QB who improved his stock was EJ Manuel. As inconsistent as that dude is, I *could* see a team using a late 1st round pick on him because of his upside, size, and mobility.

    Glennon, Nassib, Wilson...those guys were really bad. Definitely didn't do themselves any favors.
    I agree with WickedSolo, these QB's this year are really not first OR 2nd round quality. I dont think anyone will reach on these guys, even though rookies have done well the past few seasons.




  4. #1654
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    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Boulderraven View Post
    I agree with WickedSolo, these QB's this year are really not first OR 2nd round quality. I dont think anyone will reach on these guys, even though rookies have done well the past few seasons.
    Definitely.

    If Tannehill were to have come out this year, he'd be the #1 QB easily. That's how bad this crop of QB's are.

    I'm not saying that guys like Glennon or Nassib can't - or won't - succeed, but man...there really aren't too many guys that you could conceivably build a franchise around in this class. I mean, prior to this season, Landry Jones from Oklahoma was thought to be one of the better QB options available, but that dude has completely sunk his draft stock. While Walterfootball is kind of a "flavor of the month" website, they wrote that some scouts told them that they've completely removed Jones from their draft board. That's incredible. Last year this guy would have been a potential 1st round pick.

    I bet Tajh Boyd and Aaron Murray are kicking themselves right now, because those two guys probably could have legitimately pushed their stock into round 1. Especially Boyd (who I think is better than Geno Smith).
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  5. #1655
    Quote Originally Posted by wickedsolo View Post
    Definitely.

    If Tannehill were to have come out this year, he'd be the #1 QB easily. That's how bad this crop of QB's are.

    I'm not saying that guys like Glennon or Nassib can't - or won't - succeed, but man...there really aren't too many guys that you could conceivably build a franchise around in this class. I mean, prior to this season, Landry Jones from Oklahoma was thought to be one of the better QB options available, but that dude has completely sunk his draft stock. While Walterfootball is kind of a "flavor of the month" website, they wrote that some scouts told them that they've completely removed Jones from their draft board. That's incredible. Last year this guy would have been a potential 1st round pick.

    I bet Tajh Boyd and Aaron Murray are kicking themselves right now, because those two guys probably could have legitimately pushed their stock into round 1. Especially Boyd (who I think is better than Geno Smith).
    You're using things like "logic", and "patience".

    One thing that many GMs don't have is logic and patience...in 2010, nobody thought guys like Locker, and Ponder were legit first round guys.

    QB is the one position where "value" can basically be thrown out the window.

    I fully expect Smith, Barkley, and Glennon will be top 15 picks.

    I think those are the only guys GMs will look at as "franchise" guys and they will all panic and take them early.

    I don't think the rest will be in demand enough to make a GM make a trade like the one suggested earlier.


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    Although Walsh's system of offense can compensate for lack of talent; however, defense is a different story. According to Walsh, talent on defense was essential and could not be compensated for. What did Walsh do in 1981? He acquired physical and talented players on defense.




  6. #1656

    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    I really don't think it's going to be a run on QBs this year. They're just not good enough. Sure, Christian Ponder and Jake Locker went in the top 15 despite being 2nd round talents... but I just don't see it happening this year. I mean, Barkley, Glennon, Nassib, Dysert, and Wilson are all worse prospects even than Christian Ponder. Geno Smith to me looks like the only legit 1st round QB and even he grades out really as maybe the 25th best prospect on the big board.

    The other thing is free agency this year. Alex Smith, Matt Flynn, Ryan Mallett, Matt Moore, Kevin Kolb... even guys like Bruce Gradkowski and Tarvaris Jackson. All guys who will be available whether by free agency or cheap trades and might be options that certain teams feel like they could work with while they groom a future QB.

    If I'm Bruce Arians out in Arizona or Andy Reid in KC I want to spend my 1st round pick on a BPA to bolster the team's overall talent. I'll get a future QB option in the 2nd or 3rd, where I won't be reaching, while I go into 2013 with Alex Smith or Matt Moore. Teams want to take a guy in the 1st and have him step in and play well right away but that's really forcing the issue.

    I think the run this year is going to be on linemen... especially defensive linemen. I really think you're going to see a huge run on DL this year... maybe 15 or 18 defensive linemen in the first round. Jarvis Jones, Bjoern Werner, Damontre Moore, Jonathan Hankins, Star Lotulelei, Barkevious Mingo, Sam Montgomery, Sheldon Richardson, Dion Jordan, Ziggy Ansah, Jon Jenkins, Bennie Logan, Kawann Short, Sharrif Floyd, Margus Hunt, Alex Okafor... that's 16 guys right there and I think every single one of them will go in the 1st round.




  7. #1657
    iggyman555 Guest

    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Boulderraven View Post
    I agree with WickedSolo, these QB's this year are really not first OR 2nd round quality. I dont think anyone will reach on these guys, even though rookies have done well the past few seasons.
    JETS draft barkley..book it hahahah




  8. #1658

    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    In fact... here's a quick offseason plan for each team that has an obvious QB need. I think each of these moves makes sense without making a colossal reach in the draft.

    1) Kansas City - Trade/sign Matt Flynn. He's a perfect fit for Andy Reid's West Coast Offense and the new Chiefs GM John Dorsey was pat of the Packers FO that drafted Flynn. He's a fairly low-upside player, but Andy Reid has shown that he can get by with a low-upside QB who plays within the system and doesn't make a ton of mistakes. They'll probably draft somebody in the mid to late rounds as a potential developmental QB.

    2) Jacksonville - New GM David Caldwell says that he believes Blaine Gabbert still deserves a chance to prove himself. That doesn't sound like a team that wants to spend another top 10 pick on a QB. They'll either draft a mid round QB or sign somebody off the scrap heap to compete with Gabbert and Henne for the future. Matt Moore could be a good option.

    3) Philadelphia Eagles - Draft EJ Manuel at the top of the 2nd, sign Dennis Dixon in FA, or some other similar move. Kelly will go out and get an athletic QB to run his read option--no need to spend an early pick on a passer when you're going to win by running and throwing off play action.

    4) Cleveland Browns - Trade for Ryan Mallett with the Patriots. If he beats Brandon Weeden outright I'd expect to see them try to get rid of him, so he would become another option on the FA market.

    5) Arizona Cardinals - Trade for Nick Foles (good fit for Arians' offense) OR sign David Garrard (great fit for Arians' offense) and draft Tyler Bray or another similar big-armed passer in the 2nd

    6) Buffalo Bills - Draft Geno Smith. He's a bit of a reach at #8 overall but not terribly so, and he fits Doug Marrone's system perfectly. Buddy Nix has openly said he's going to draft a QB this year and I believe it. The Bills are actually a really talented team particularly on offense, they just don't have a QB. Their OL is good, RBs are fantastic, and they have a #1 WR in Stevie Johnson. They also have plenty of money to add free agents.

    7) New York Jets - Sign Kevin Kolb to a cheap deal after he's released by Arizona. He's young, sure to be cheap, and knows Morninwheg's offense. He could conceivably beat out Sanchez straight up in 2013. They could also draft Matt Barkley or Tyler Wilson in round 2.

    Alex Smith is also going to land somewhere on this list, not too sure where, but the whole point of this exercise is to point out that NFL teams aren't stupid. There are plenty of viable QB options out there without wasting a 1st rounder on a guy you expect to start right away.




  9. #1659
    iggyman555 Guest

    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
    In fact... here's a quick offseason plan for each team that has an obvious QB need. I think each of these moves makes sense without making a colossal reach in the draft.

    1) Kansas City - Trade/sign Matt Flynn. He's a perfect fit for Andy Reid's West Coast Offense and the new Chiefs GM John Dorsey was pat of the Packers FO that drafted Flynn. He's a fairly low-upside player, but Andy Reid has shown that he can get by with a low-upside QB who plays within the system and doesn't make a ton of mistakes. They'll probably draft somebody in the mid to late rounds as a potential developmental QB.

    2) Jacksonville - New GM David Caldwell says that he believes Blaine Gabbert still deserves a chance to prove himself. That doesn't sound like a team that wants to spend another top 10 pick on a QB. They'll either draft a mid round QB or sign somebody off the scrap heap to compete with Gabbert and Henne for the future. Matt Moore could be a good option.

    3) Philadelphia Eagles - Draft EJ Manuel at the top of the 2nd, sign Dennis Dixon in FA, or some other similar move. Kelly will go out and get an athletic QB to run his read option--no need to spend an early pick on a passer when you're going to win by running and throwing off play action.

    what about vick?


    4) Cleveland Browns - Trade for Ryan Mallett with the Patriots. If he beats Brandon Weeden outright I'd expect to see them try to get rid of him, so he would become another option on the FA market.

    its gonna be tough for pats to get rid off mallett, i hear they really like him to be bradys successor

    5) Arizona Cardinals - Trade for Nick Foles (good fit for Arians' offense) OR sign David Garrard (great fit for Arians' offense) and draft Tyler Bray or another similar big-armed passer in the 2nd

    6) Buffalo Bills - Draft Geno Smith. He's a bit of a reach at #8 overall but not terribly so, and he fits Doug Marrone's system perfectly. Buddy Nix has openly said he's going to draft a QB this year and I believe it. The Bills are actually a really talented team particularly on offense, they just don't have a QB. Their OL is good, RBs are fantastic, and they have a #1 WR in Stevie Johnson. They also have plenty of money to add free agents.

    7) New York Jets - Sign Kevin Kolb to a cheap deal after he's released by Arizona. He's young, sure to be cheap, and knows Morninwheg's offense. He could conceivably beat out Sanchez straight up in 2013. They could also draft Matt Barkley or Tyler Wilson in round 2.

    Alex Smith is also going to land somewhere on this list, not too sure where, but the whole point of this exercise is to point out that NFL teams aren't stupid. There are plenty of viable QB options out there without wasting a 1st rounder on a guy you expect to start right away.

    ....




  10. #1660

    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by iggyman555 View Post
    ....
    I don't think the Eagles will want to keep Vick just because of his contract. He seems like a good enough fit for Chip Kelly's offense, though, so maybe he would stick. That's definitely an option.

    I threw Mallett in for the Browns because I've read a lot of reports that Cleveland's new GM Michael Lombardi hates Brandon Weeden and he's not a very good fit for their offense. Lombardi also has been really high on Mallett, who is a guy I think could be a starter in the league. Mallett could also fit in Arizona BTW. Good fit for Arians' offense.

    I just think there are so many good QB options out there next year that I don't see a lot of NFL teams panicking and blowing high 1st round picks on guys like Nassib, Wilson, and Barkley. I know it happened in 2011, but that was a different year and Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, and Christian Ponder were all a hell of a lot better as prospects than Nassib, Wilson, and Barkley. WAY better.

    Also... look at what actually happened as a result of that 2011 draft. Gabbert, Locker, and Ponder are all among the worst starting QBs in the league. Yet Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick were drafted in the 2nd, where they belong, and both of them are not only way better than Gabbert, Locker, and Ponder, but those 2 guys are so good partly because their teams drafted BPAs in the 1st (AJ Green and Aldon Smith).

    The 2011 draft actually PROVES... that reaching for a QB instead of taking BPA hurts your team. And I don't think teams will bother going through that again, honestly.




  11. #1661
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    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
    Philadelphia Eagles - Draft EJ Manuel at the top of the 2nd, sign Dennis Dixon in FA, or some other similar move.
    I could see Chip Kelly signing Dennis Dixon to be the back up there. Chip Kelly was the offensive coordinator in Oregon when Dixon was a Duck.




  12. #1662
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    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    I'm sure Dennis Dixon is also hoping for an opportunity from Kelly. It makes sense and is a low risk move for the Eagles. Dixon would be cheap, already knows Kelly's offense, and could compete right away.
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  13. #1663
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    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    It now looks like my boy Kaseen Greene may have crept up into the first round on the draft boards, I was hoping he'd be there by the time we're picking in the 2nd, looks unlikely now.




  14. #1664
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    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by leachisabeast View Post
    It now looks like my boy Kaseen Greene may have crept up into the first round on the draft boards, I was hoping he'd be there by the time we're picking in the 2nd, looks unlikely now.
    Depending on how you look at it, this could be good or bad for us.

    It could be bad, in that guys like Kevin Minter are being pushed even higher up the board.

    However, it could be good in that guys like Minter are being leap-frogged by Greene, which would push them down to us.
    Last edited by wickedsolo; 01-28-2013 at 09:43 AM.
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  15. #1665
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    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by wickedsolo View Post
    Depending on how you look at it, this could be good or bad for us.

    It could be bad, in that guys like Kevin Minter are being pushed even higher up the board.

    However, it could be good in that guys like Greene are being leap-frogged by Greene, which would push them down to us.
    have you muddled up names here or am I going mad?




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