Will the Ravens win the AFC North?

**Corey** · 12-06-2012, 10:53 PM

Originally Posted by Coastergenius

Think of it like a Magic Number in baseball. Our magic number over the Steelers and Bengals is a 2. We need a combination of two wins or losses of each respective team. Remember, that's not either team, that's both teams. It sounds easy, but if you look at it from a perspective of who would you pick to win each game it gets scary. There's no way game that I would predict the Steelers to lose. I wouldn't bet on us against the Redskins (it will be even though, I wouldn't favor them too heavily), we'll probably get dusted by the Broncos, and that leaves us to win out our last two games against solid teams.

But that being said, we have probability on our side. These last 8 games (ours and the Steelers for arguments sake) will still be unpredictable, potentialy. There will be upsets and the team's momentum and health will shift. So by virtue of our strong position, it would be unlikely for us to lose the division. But this is a position that I knew thought that we would be in a week ago. It would also look like a pretty epic collapse in the history books if we didn't win the division, especially if we didn't get a WC, which would be unlikely, but mathematically possible.

Actually, the odds are stacked against the Steelers and Bengals. BR.com explained the tiebreakers the other day. To win the division the Steelers or Bengals have to 1)win the four remaining games (both of them can't do that) and 2) the Ravens have to lose atleast 3 games.

If there is a tie at 11-5 the Ravens still win by virtue of tiebreakers.

**fma780** · 12-06-2012, 11:24 PM

Ben will be back on Sunday. I don't see the Steelers losing anymore games this season. It sucks but it is what it is.

**Corey** · 12-07-2012, 09:51 AM

Originally Posted by fma780

Ben will be back on Sunday. I don't see the Steelers losing anymore games this season. It sucks but it is what it is.

Yeah because they didn't lose 3 games WITH Ben under center.

**MD Boy** · 12-07-2012, 09:58 AM

Originally Posted by wickedsolo

I think they will win the AFC North because they'd have to REALLY botch the season to not win it.

However, I think they will limp into the playoffs and at this point I'm not confident that they'll be able to handle anyone in the playoffs. Stranger things have happened and I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't think it is possible.

Well said.

Yes, we will win the AFCN but I'm not too confident for the playoffs when playing the likes of a rested Houston Texans or NE Patriots team in their, respective, house.

**GOTA** · 12-07-2012, 09:59 AM

As long as the Ravens go 2-2 they're going to win the division

**edtude** · 12-07-2012, 10:41 AM

Yes, but it will not be impressive. Sunday concerns me

**wickedsolo** · 12-07-2012, 10:55 AM

Harbs has a pretty good record in December.

It is feasible that they could go 4-0 in December. If they play like they did against Oakland or the first Cinci game, then they could definitely win out.

**Bhcforlife** · 12-07-2012, 11:18 AM

I said no, just think the schedule is too hard based on what we've seen to this point. They've been barely scraping by teams for the past month.

I think this weekend will determine it, honestly. Losing here (first time Harbaugh/Flacco will have lost two consecutive games) and that is going to quickly become three games since I don't see them beating Manning and the Broncos - they haven't beat him in over a decade and that was with the Ravens having a stellar defense, which they do not anymore. The question is then can they stop the skid against a Giants team that perennially plays their best football at the end of the year or a good Bengals team on the road.

I'm not a doom and gloomer but I really think this game against Washington makes or breaks the season. I would love to be wrong and as I have in the past will certainly be here to say I was if/when they win the division, I just have my doubts right now.

**JAB1985** · 12-07-2012, 11:46 AM

theres a scenario where Pitt and Cin each lose once and we lose out and we still win it. or only winning 2 of the next 4, which after winning 16 straight at home were now suppose to lose 3 in a row? Im not worried about the division, im more worried about what were going to do in the playoffs, and if we can still get a first round bye.

**RavensRule21215** · 12-07-2012, 11:50 AM

Originally Posted by JAB1985

theres a scenario where Pitt and Cin each lose once and we lose out and we still win it. or only winning 2 of the next 4, which after winning 16 straight at home were now suppose to lose 3 in a row? Im not worried about the division, im more worried about what were going to do in the playoffs, and if we can still get a first round bye.

If the Ravens lose out, they're 9-7. If Pitt and Cin each lose once, they're 10-6. I'd like to know what scenario would allow a 9-7 team to to still win it. (Did you mean to type if Pitt and Cin each lose TWICE? That would make sense; but not each of them losing once.)

**Bhcforlife** · 12-07-2012, 12:00 PM

Originally Posted by JAB1985

theres a scenario where Pitt and Cin each lose once and we lose out and we still win it. or only winning 2 of the next 4, which after winning 16 straight at home were now suppose to lose 3 in a row? Im not worried about the division, im more worried about what were going to do in the playoffs, and if we can still get a first round bye.

They've also lost eight straight games since 2002 to Peyton Manning, a few of which were embarassing, 2005, 2007, 2008...this was with the Ravens having a great defense most of the time. I don't know about three straight at home but if they get one, they still have to get one on the road against two tough teams.

**Haloti92** · 12-07-2012, 12:12 PM

I think the odds we win the division are good but not as high as one would think just looking at the records and knowing who his ahead in tiebreakers (i.e. ignoring the actual opponents of us and Cincy and Pitt and current performance trends of all three of us).

I think if we win this Sunday those odds skyrocket. If we lose, I say they dip slightly below 50%. This weekend's game and the home game against the Giants are the two most winnable, imo.

The Pittsburgh-Cincy game is one where we could be rooting hard for either one of them depending on what happens over the next two weeks.