si.com compares home Joe vs. road Joe

**PerpetuallyBored74** · 11-29-2012, 06:55 PM

Deep pass plays are timing plays, where the QB is throwing to a spot downfield with the expectation that the receiver will reach that spot on time and in time to catch the ball.
When you constantly send receivers deep, the opposing teams D's prepare and practice for it. They either double cover those routes or focus on disrupting the synchronicity between Joe and his receivers by jamming them at the line, rerouting them right off the line and/or just flat-out interfering with them--gambling that they won't get flagged because usually they don't.
Some of Joe's "overthrows" are actually accurate passes were the receiver was unable to get to the correct spot in time because he got held, arm-barred, grabbed, or totally bumped off his route.
For example, in the Chargers game, Joe threw a deep pass down the middle of the field to Torrey that fell in the end zone (or close to it) about 20 yards away from Torrey. At the time Fouts and Eagle wondered where Joe was throwing it, so they went back to the replay and it showed the Chargers safety running straight at and slamming right into Torrey when they were a good 20 yards downfield. No flag for PI or even illegal contact, of course.
And when Fouts saw that he started to say something but then stopped--almost as if he realized that his Chargers had gotten away with one and didn't want to call too much attention to that.
That pass would've been a TD too.

Joe is like every other QB--he has to get into a good rhythm to play his best. Deep passes are low percentage passes under normal circumstances, but when the opposing D is prepared and sitting on those routes (likewise with all those out routes) then they become even lower percentage passes. Which obviously makes it impossible for Joe (and the receivers and O-line) to get into any kind of rhythm.

The idea that both Cam and Harbs seem to be oblivious to this is discouraging. And if that is the effect that it has on us fans, to leave us discouraged, just imaging the impact on the players.

Because Joe's not the only one who lacks confidence when the playcalling is wrong for the situation, all or most of the players on the offense are just as affected. That's why it isn't just Joe who looks bad during those times--the entire offense looks anemic.

tl;dr
Too often, Cam sux, here's 1 of the main reasons why

**psuasskicker** · 11-29-2012, 07:17 PM

Only have a minute, but here's the problem I have with this...

• At home, Flacco is 23 for 36 for 397 yards on passes thrown between 10-19 yards downfield; on the road, he’s 12 for 34 for 211 at the same distance.

• At home, Flacco has completed 18 of 37 passes thrown deeper than 20 yards for 578 yards; on the road, he’s 8 for 32 for 221.

This here makes up a big reason for the difference in Joe's (and the Ravens) offensive stats...if for no other reason than he's not extending drives and getting the team deeper into scoring range and getting those opportunities to score. The problem is, we're talking about the difference of about 15-20 completions.

That's WAY too small a sample size to say there's an actual issue. 10-15 more completion differences at those spots gets him numbers probably fairly close to his home numbers...at least enough that there isn't a massive difference. Meanwhile, the defenses of their home opponents is markedly different than that of their road opponents (especially if you consider Philly's early D which was rated quite highly until, ironically, they fired Castillo).

Bottom line, one thing we simply can't rule out here is luck. Give him seven fewer completions at home on those balls, and ten more on the road - out of almost 400 passes thrown - and his numbers are likely a LOT closer. We can't rule this out as one of the big factors.

- C -

**alienrace** · 11-30-2012, 12:29 AM

Ok, I finally got to watch the game in it's entirety today, and I gotta say, WTF WTF WTF are you guys talking about Joe's confidence for? At NO point in this game did Joe seem to lack confidence. Sometimes I think half of you are smoking dope while watching the game!

And another thing, the offensive line was HORRIBLE in the first half, and Jones and Boldin dropped two crucial passes that would have extended drives that probably would have led to scores. Joe did miss a couple of throws, including the one to Pitta near the end of the half, so he wasn't blameless for the lack of offense in the first half, but hello, lack of confidence? What is wrong with you people? Have you not been watching/listening to this guy in the five years he's been here? He certainly doesn't lack confidence, and he once again, came through in the clutch in a difficult situation. What is this, 4th quarter comeback #3 just this year?

Are you people for real?

**PerpetuallyBored74** · 11-30-2012, 01:45 AM

Jacksonville last year, Texans this year, Joe was not playing with confidence in either game once it became clear that both the O + Cam did not have it that day.

**Flipping Birdie** · 11-30-2012, 07:06 AM

My only quibble is that 2 plays is a joke of a study sample. Who knows, he may be right; but it's impossible to tell just because he found one play on the road where Flacco didn't let the long play develop.

**HKusp** · 11-30-2012, 08:37 AM

Originally Posted by Flipping Birdie

My only quibble is that 2 plays is a joke of a study sample. Who knows, he may be right; but it's impossible to tell just because he found one play on the road where Flacco didn't let the long play develop.

That's basically what I was trying to say except I was maybe giving the author the benefit of the doubt, that maybe he was just showing those 2 examples of the proposed problem but that he may have actually seen it several times. He tries to back it up with statistics so I assumed he was using those 2 plays as indicators of the bigger picture. I agree with Alien on the whole though, Joe doesn't seem to lack in the confidence department to me either.

**kojo** · 11-30-2012, 01:19 PM

Could just be a mix of things: the play-calling, Joe not wanting to gamble as much when the game is close, execution from the WR/OL/RB, and of course the OTHER team's D-Line. Remember, they are playing at away and the other guys have the crowd and often the momentum on their side, especially if they've got Pro Bowlers on there. Some places are harder to win at than others. M&T, Heinz, the Falcon's place, and Seattle come to mind. The Ravens have faced some very good Defenses away this year with the Steelers being ranked num 1, texans 6, and chargers at 10. They're all a bit better ranked than the Ravens (low 20s) so im trying to keep things in perspective a little.