So there is a trade-off involved here, but using reasonable assumptions it is never worth it, mainly because, as you said, the odds of throwing for it would never be significantly (enough) better than the odds of running for it. But I suspect Cameron deluded himself into thinking we had literally a 0% chance of running for it, and his "genius" of throwing it would mean someone would be wide open and the odds we make it throwing it would be like 90% (in his mind). Of course this is nonsense, but Cameron seemed to be thinking something along these lines; that or he was trying to lose the game.
It seems to me the only way you even consider throwing it in that situation (and even then, I don't think you should) would be to have Joe up under center and play action to a short dump off pass.
In all seriousness, I don't think anyone can defend that play call. No even Cam. Lets say Big Ben is playing; do you want to give him the ball back with around a minute left? Thats how Cam has to call the game at that point. He cannot give them the ball and that call was wrong on so many levels at that point.
As much as it is Cam's fault (I HATE HIM), I still look at Flacco too. He has the ability to audible. He could have went in the huddle and said wow Cam you're not very bright and change the play or you know audible at the line
Should have ran the end around Cam, that would have got them. :261695:
No way Joe has the ability to audiblize to something else in those situational type playcalls
As I have said, the playcall was stupid, but much like the 2-point decision vs Dallas, there are assumptions that make it the correct call. I just happen to disagree (vehemently) with the assumptions required to make dropping back to throw it the correct call.
As an exercise, think about what you call if you are told with certainty that you have a 0% chance of getting a first down if you run it. Do you run it anyway or knee it out, tick the 35 seconds off and punt? Or do you drop back to pass? What if someone tells you that a pass attempt has a 75% of succeeding? Etc, etc. You can convince yourself that it is the "correct" call as long as you stretch the assumptions about each options' possible results.
I don't know what game you were all watching, but it is obvious to me Cam is a genius. On a level never before seen genius.
I mean its 3 and 14 early in the game. Do you go for a pass near the first down marker? No way, any idiot could make that call. It takes a true genius to call a pass behind the line of scrimmage when you need 13 yards. Just think. NO ONE IS EXPECTING IT!
The same with calling a shotgun pass play when you need just a few more seconds off the clock to ice the game. NO ONE IS EXPECTING IT. It takes a true offensive GURU to channel plays like this.
And you all aren't giving Cam the credit he deserves for the GAME WINNING punt return for a touchdown that HE CALLED! It was a beautifully designed signature Cameron play. The defense had no chance of stopping it. It was designed by an offensive mastermind.