They are. I've seen the long lines on TV in the early voting where Mitt has been getting
TV just said OBY is winning the early voting by a whisker in OHio but GOP believes they are
pissing off the voters on election day by stressing the early voting and it will swing for Mitt.
Another reason to be pessimistic :( .
Romney cannot win with a razor-thin margin anywhere lest this occur (read the play-by-play of what happened in the Washington state race for governor, starting at paragraph 8):
Man, I gotta stop reading you-lol. I don't put anyone on ignore. I like you man, but no mas.
In a tie race you gotta like Romney because as they said on TV it's very hard to
get republicans to poll. It's what I've been saying, most of these polls survey DEMs
and unlikely voters.
Barone just said OBY is worried about Wisc where he blew another big lead and he
just stopped in. Barone is calling for Mitt to win FLA as did the congressman I posted above.
And as posted above, Rasmussen gives Mitt a 1-pt lead in the final day before election
and he's the most accurate.
BTW, Barone was criticized in posts above but he just quoted himself in the column
that he could be wrong.
Speaking of cutting voting in Ohio, the congressman in FLA said there's been some DEM shannigans
there with the DEM supervisor changing the times of early voting and telling all the DEMs but not
Looks like DEMs are trying hard to steal another election.
And speaking of state polls, don't forget Kerry's bogus early exit polls showing him winning
by a land slide. That was to discourage GOPs from voting but again he only surveyed
DEMs and mostly female DEMs and mostly Hispanic female DEMs in FLA.
Of course Bush won.
Anecdotal, but interesting none the less.
Madison Fail: Obama/Springsteen 18K; Kerry/Springsteen 75K
Here is what the media and the Dem-leaning polling is not taking into account:
If Rasmussen is as accurate as they have been the last couple elections, party affiliation going into tomorrow in his polling is R+5.8. For perspective, here is how close he was in '04 and '08. The first column was his polling, and the second column was the actual turnout. Keep in mind his polling isn't 618 likely voters, or 1,500 likely voters. His party ID poll is 15,000 (fifteen THOUSAND) likely voters.
2004 D +1.5 (Dem 38.7, Rep 37.2) D +0 (Dem 38, Rep 38) 2008 D +7.1 (Dem 40.3, Rep 33.3) D +7 (Dem 40, Rep 33)
Edit: Rasmussen also predicted a D+3 turnout in 2010. Turnout was actually even D/R, so he gave Democrats a 3 point turnout cushion. So in essence he has been accurate with turnout predictions for a while now.
IF this holds and is true, then none of the toplines in these polls make a bit of difference, Mitt Romney is going to blow the doors off this election tomorrow.
BTW The last CNN poll had Romney and Obama tied with a D+11 sample. And Romney winning Independents by something like 19 points. Plug that into Rasmussen's turnout prediction and Romney may beat Obama nationally by 5-7%. And if that happens, no way in hell he loses the electorial college. If this is an R+6 turnout, losing Ohio means he is picking up enough other big states to offset.
And by the way, for all that BS about Mitt absolutely needing Ohio. That's the narrative. If you look at the RCP map, there are realistic scenerios that could end up with a Romney win.
There are many who think the Scott Walker recall election created a brand new Republican ground game in Wisconsin. Remember the Democrats and the unions poured MILLIONS into that recall. It wasn't just a little side-election. And Walker got more votes to stave recall than he got elected with. And he is hardly a "Scott Brown" type Republican, he's a die-hard Conservative. There is a real feeling between that and Paul Ryan that they can win that state.
So if he won WI, retook CO, and won FL, NC, and VA, then he would only need something like New Hampshire or Iowa to win. That is with Obama winning Ohio. Everything right now points to Romney winning Florida, NC, and Virginia, and early voting has the GOP up +2% right now.
So we'll see. Like I said, this is a turnout election. IF the electorate is actually R+6, then tomorrow will be a short night.
Only 200 turned out to see STevie Wonder perform for the hamster in Cleveland, OH.
He's finishing the campaign with a star studded cast from Hollywood that is bombing
DEMs are blaming it on poor advertising. Yea, sure.
These are the numbers I'm looking at. Not the phony DEM Polls.
LOL - Mitt just said in VA, another critical state that's even, "Im looking around to
see if the Beatles are here to entertain you but I' don't see them. I guess everyone is
just here for the campaign and you care about America.
Drudge is now reporting that GALLUP joins Rasmussen as Mitt leading
These are the most reliable polls but Im still calling for a land slide.
Not sure if this means anything or not, but apparently Romney's internal polling is what has him thinking Pennsylvania could fall to him, as well as Wisconsin.
Speaking of PA, over 30,000 showed up in PA to see Mitt in the freezing cold last night.
More large crowds to see Mitt in VA today where Rasmussen has Mitt up by +2.
Britt Hume on FOX said last night he's watching his home state of Va not Ohio.
Romney is leading in eastern Oh and western PA. If the undecideds haven't decided
yet, they will vote tomorrow for Mitt because they just can't make up their mind with
the status quo and Mitt is talking about the future and ways to solve the probs.'
Another guy just said the crowds for Mitt in Ohio and PA are unbelieveable.
Eric Cantor the rising GOP star of the House says Mitt will win his state in VA. Again
the crowds have been unbelieveable..
Everything points to a Romney land slide except the polls.
And don't forget The Redskins Rule. The Redskins did us a favor yesterday by losing. In the last 18 of 19 elections where they lost at home just before the election, the incumbent lost. It's called the Redskins Rule-lol. Hail to the RedSkins :). ILMAO
Mitt is winning the early voting in Colorado and the state has been trending right. This
is another blown lead by OBY. Even the DEM expert agreed but his map had them getting
294-300 elect votes w/o it.
ABCs poll has OBY up by +1. This is a DEM network poll.
Charles Krautheimer-sp just said that +2 lead by Mitt could be enough to push him
over. With Col, PA and New Hamp still in play, one of those states could win it for him
INTERNAL POLLS JUST POSTED AT 5:27 PM
MITT UP IN OHIO BY +1
MITT UP IN IOWA BY +2
MITT UP IN NH BY +3
TIED IN PA AND WISC.
National polls don't matter much this year. It is primarily Ohio that determines the election, followed by Florida and Virginia. Romney has NOT lead in a single Ohio poll recently and only led like once in a poll the whole year. The best recently he did was a tie by Rasmussen. Ohio has been like the most polled state in the country by the left and right and even the right leaners like gravis and we ask America have Obama ahead. Romney has to pray for catostrophically bad dem turnout to get Ohio and based on all that early voting, it is unlikely. Supposed to be sunny and in the 50s there so forget a bad weather swing...now Florida is a totally different story. He has been leading a lot in their polls so he should win that. Virginia is the closest one but even there Romney is leading in just one poll. The problem is it's a Rasmussen poll that has a significantly lower sample size than the other polls and it has a higher than average margin of error of 4 points. Obama could win virginia by 1-2 points (typical edge recent VA polls have obama at) and that would correctly fall in line with what Ras projects. Tomorrow comes down to turnout, plain and simple.
If Mitt can pull PA and WI, he doesn't need OH.
Now that the campaigning is over, I am putting money on Obama now.
I don't think Mitt moved far enough ahead in the polls to get to the magic EV number.
Hope I am wrong though.