I just follow the averages like the one from RCP.
When you got to RCP and click on a state and list the polls and the result, if you click on who did the poll it will show you the internals. Here is the latest PPP Missouri,
That's the methodology, not the "internals".
Internal polling is polling contracted by a particular candidate for more accurate numbers. Very expensive and very difficult for the public / press to see.
When I read how they out poll Dems or Repubs and add up 66% think the country is on the wrong track 58% disapprove of Obama's handing of the economy, then say it's the most important thing to him right now but 50% still say they'll vote for Obama... I have a hard time buying that.
Not that it's a huge surprise, but Connecticut moves from toss up to Leans Obama in the latest update.
Intrade's odds move decisively towards Obama now 70-30.
Romney cannot / has not picked up any momentum at all in any of the battleground states. Most of the polls in these states remain unchanged.
Not looking good for Mitt.
I believe this to be the far more accurate assessment of the race for Mitt ...
Almost every poll is basing the turnout of this election off of 2008 (or more in some cases), when that type of turnout has almost never (if ever) been that high. Polls are over sampling Democrats
In Florida alone since 2008 party identification of Democrats has dropped by 300,000.
Peggy Noonan's view of Romney's campaign is a whole other story from the polls.
The "Blame the Polls" meme was the domain of the Dems in 2010, now our side is picking it up?
Things are not well in the Romney camp. He's had a ton of bad news to pounce on going back 3 months ago and he's basically a mute at this point and the result is almost no change in the polls.
What Noonan is saying (and others) is he needs to not rely on the the MSM and take his message to the people directly. He isn't doing that. He isn't even coming close to doing that. He feels (incorrectly, IMO) that if he's on the talking head shows on the alphabet networks, he can change / shape the narrative.
Ain't going to happen.
BTW - if the polls were so accurate, why did that Romney tape come out so early? You're a smart guy, you know the closer it comes out to election day the more it stays on peoples mind. They released it now, because they needed to.
You're going to believe what you want and so am I. But I was just looking at the Fox news poll in VA (BHO +5) guess what... they oversampled Dems by...? 5, yet the electorate has (R) +3.
The polls are just simply over sampling democrats, plain and simple. And don't forget about voter enthusiasm