Projected odds on Terps' 2012 basketball finish
Coming off the road loss at Virginia, Mark Turgeon's first UM team is a somewhat interesting bunch at 15-11. I'm going to ignore individual players and focus on how the team as a whole is performing. The good news is that they show quite a lot of talent, the promise that goes with it, and that they are still young. And also something that I find to be the most interesting aspect: their consistency against the opposition. In other words, they are winning consistently against teams with worst records and losing consistently against teams with better records. I know what most of you are thinking: "Huh - you find that interesting?" Yes, I do.
I know I'm 'stretching the field', but it reminds me of the 2008 Ravens. That team beat every opponent who, unlike the Ravens themselves, failed to reach the playoffs (9-0 against them). There were no expectations for that team as well, coming off a 5-11 season with a rookie head coach and rookie QB.
The bad news is that the Terps have not 'come together' as a team - and have given no indication of doing just that. In crunch time, against the better teams in the ACC, they make too many mistakes (bad shot selection, too many turnovers, too many missed foul shots) and appear like a bunch of individuals who can't rely on their teammates.
This team could (I said could) make significant improvement with four regular season games left. But I don't expect it would be nearly enough to gain an NCAA invitation. Here are my projected odds for the remainder of the season:
Minimum total victories (regular and ACC tourney) with corresponding odds (percentage):
So, I expect them to finish 18-14 (17-13 regular, 1-1 in Atlanta) with wins against Miami and Georgia Tech and a first-round win in the ACC tourney. They will need 20 wins minimum to get serious consideration (outside chance) for an NCAA tourney berth. That would require two upset wins, most likely against Virginia at home and against the #2 seed in Atlanta (expect Terps to be #7 seed there) which would be a far more difficult task.
Re: Projected odds on Terps' 2012 basketball finish
Updated odds for the Terps in the ACC tournament
The following percentages are the probabilities for success:
First round: 51%
The probability for losing in the first round: 42% (Percentages add up to 100% for all possible outcomes).
Obviously, the only realistic chance they have for an NCAA tourney bid is to win the tournament (total of 20 wins). There was 'light at the end of the tunnel' when they beat Miami at home (first win against an ACC opponent above them in the standings) but the light went out immediately after losing to Georgia tech (first loss against team below them).
P.S. I have not watched or listened yet to the first-round game against Wake Forest.