I disagree. I think that when it comes to people's own money they're pretty honest with it. It may not be completely perfect, but it's pretty close. If money wasn't involved, and it was just an ESPN poll, it would be different. If you could just say "Oh, the Cowboys and NY market teams are overvalued because of their market so I can make a ton of money betting against them" anybody could easily make a ton of money. But the fact is that most people lose money over time, due to the odds being pretty fair, and the vig.
I like it.
I put $500 on the Ravens at 15/1 at Paris last year when in Vegas in August. Going back this year. Hope it stays at 20/1 to increase my winnings...
Lines are created by books to generate the maximum amount of money (i.e. bets) that favor the book. They are set so they make money on either side of the line.
Books don't care about markets, who is the better team, etc. All they care about is making the most amount of cash. That's what those lines are for.
This isn't an opinion. That's gambling 101 fact.
Vegas wants even money on each side of the line. That is how they make their money.
So in some respects, the odds are what the oddsmakers do believe the people out there feel the Ravens chances actually are.
Odds of a Superbowl winner are different though. There are 32 teams to choose 1 winner from. So they do factor in the probability of winning it. But then of those probable teams, they try to get money spread around. That's where it becomes part true probability, part interpretation of the bettors' perceptions, part popularity contest. It's not just one simple indicator.
How about the odds to win the AFC Championship game?
or the odds to win the NFC Championship game?
I'd imagine that we got such crappy odds due to the fact that we were 10-6 last year and that we lost a lot of key components. People don't have a guarantee as to how our new pieces will fit in. Look at teams like the Broncos, Seahawks, and 49ers who had great seasons last year and added some players.
i agree with the 49ers being the favorite. i know manning and brady have been there before but after seeing them take dives in key moments of the games against the ravens last year i don't see them repeating.
there are a lot of things i like about flacco but one reason why i would take flacco over brady and manning is because i know joe won't take a dive, ever, not just at key moments.