Flacco Sets A New Record With His Lack Of INTs (En Route To More Records)

Record 1

Joe Flacco has now set a new NFL post-season record for the most pass attempts without an interception in a conference play-off run (that is, playing to get to the Super Bowl, not including the Super Bowl).

His 93 attempts with no interceptions in the conference play-offs beats the former record holder: Daryle Lamonica in 1968, with 86 pass attempts and no interceptions.

Record 2

He also happens to be in 4th place on another interesting list. Most consecutive pass attempts without an interception in a single post-season; Current top 5:

Eli Manning (2011) - 112
Drew Brees (2009) - 102
Eli Manning (2007) - 95
Joe Flacco (2012) - 93
Tom Brady (2001) - 90

He can move up the list into a third place tie with Eli Manning as long as he doesn't throw an INT in his first 2 attempts. He would have to avoid an INT in his first 9 attempts to tie Drew Brees for second place. To tie Eli Manning in 1st place he would have to avoid an INT in his first 19 attempts.

20 attempts without an INT will put him in first place for this leaderboard.

Record 3

He could potentially find himself on top of another leader board as well, though this one is more volatile, as if he throws an INT he will wipe himself off the list entirely, as opposed to the first 2 records I mentioned, where he is cemented in there already no matter what happens in the final game.

Most pass attempts without an INT in an entire single post-season; Current top 5:

Drew Brees (2009) - 102
Joe Flacco (2012) - 93
Troy Aikman (1992) - 89
Steve Young (1994) - 87
Daryle Lamonica (1968) - 86

If Flacco throws at least 10 passes and 0 interceptions in the next game, he will be the new record holder. Flacco has only thrown fewer than 10 passes once in his career: @CIN in the season finale this year, where he only played part of the first quarter. In games he wasn't rested because we had no reason to play him, he has never thrown fewer than 10 attempts in a single game, and has only thrown exactly 10 attempts just once, when he was severely injured @NWE in the 2009 playoffs. Besides that game, he has never thrown fewer than 18 attempts. So throwing 10 times shouldn't be a problem.

But what are the chances he doesn't throw an INT? Obviously there's no way to know, but we could take a look at some past trends and see if we should be scared or not...

He has thrown 0 INTs in 7 out of 12 post-season games, and 40 out of 80 regular season games. So, in the post-season he has a 58% rate of not throwing an INT, in the regular season a 50% rate, and overall a 51% rate.

When given extra time to prepare (so, in season openers & after byes), Flacco has not thrown in INT in 7 out of 11 games, so that is a 64% rate of not throwing an INT. But that figure has improved in his later seasons than his first couple of seasons. Out of the last 6 games with extra time to prepare, he has thrown just 1 INT.

In those 11 games with extra time to prepare, he has the following stats:

201/323, 2411 Yards, 14 TD, 5 INT
62.2%, 7.46 Y/A, 219 Y/G, 93.0 QB Rating

In the 6 most recent games he has:

107/169, 1423 Yards, 10 TD, 1 INT
63.3%, 8.42 Y/A, 237 Y/G, 107.2 QB Rating

Or if you don't want such a cherry picked stat, I'll give you probably the most relevant version of this information. All 9 of his non-rookie games with extra time to prepare:

173/275, 2153 Yards, 14 TD, 3 INT
62.9%, 7.83 Y/A, 239 Y/G, 99.6 QB Rating

The reason to exclude rookie is because, interestingly enough, it includes his first two NFL games of his entire career. Obviously it includes the season opener of his first season, but then the bye week in 2008 was during Week 2 because we were originally supposed to play in Houston that week, but it was delayed due to Hurricane Ike, so our bye week got moved way up to the front of the season. So since those were Flacco's first two career games, as a rookie who wasn't even supposed to be the starter that season, I figure it's OK to exclude them and look at all the rest of what he's done. In this case, 3 INTs in 9 games means .33 INTs per game, and 6 games out of 9 without an INT means a 67% rate of not throwing an interception.

Since I split out some of Flacco's stats in my first post, I figured that since this game is in a dome I should split out those stats as well:

He has only had 4 career games in domes, but his stats are pretty lofty:

99/158, 1224 Yards, 10 TD, 1 INT
62.7%, 7.75 Y/A, 306 Y/G, 105.0 QB Rating

And remember, all 4 games were road games. His non-dome road game stats are (in 46 games including play-offs):

828/1418, 9030 Yards, 50 TD. 39 INT
58.4%, 6.37 Y/A, 196 Y/G, 77.6 QB Rating

That is a WORLD of difference. In fact, he is better in a dome on the road than he is AT HOME (in 42 games including playoffs):


765/1253, 9764 Yards, 58 TD, 24 INT
61.1%, 7.79 Y/A, 232 Y/G, 92.9 QB Rating

Anyway, he has thrown 1 INT in 4 games, averaging 0.25 INTs per game, and 3 games without an INT out of 4 means a 75% rate of not throwing an INT.

I love these type of stats. If you look at Flacco's 2013 playoff run, the nearest comparables are Brees, a first ballot HOFer, and Montana, argued as the best of all-time. His legacy is taking a huge upswing here.

I don't want to jinx him but...

http://espn.go.com/blog/afcnorth/pos...on-joe-montana

That is amazing. If Joe can keep his passes clean, we're talking about already a top 3 performance in the postseason. If he throws 1 more TD with no INTs, that's top 2. If he throws 3...oh shit.

Yet on SiriusNFL I heard them comparing the two QBs and saying "I'd rather have Kaepernick". No doubt that dude is very talented but lets give Joe a little credit here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ravenswintitle

Yet on SiriusNFL I heard them comparing the two QBs and saying "I'd rather have Kaepernick". No doubt that dude is very talented but lets give Joe a little credit here.

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It's just ridiculous at this point. I think Kaep has been great, and he is definitely a very talented QB. The analysts just need to pump their breaks for a minute. He has only started 9 games in his career so far. While Flacco has 12 playoff games under his belt with 6 out of 7 of his last 7 playoff games having a 95+ QB Rating.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ravenswintitle

Yet on SiriusNFL I heard them comparing the two QBs and saying "I'd rather have Kaepernick". No doubt that dude is very talented but lets give Joe a little credit here.

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This is what you have to expect. Joe Flacco being on the Baltimore Ravens will NEVER get the respect he deserves, like the team will never get the respect they deserve (and earn). If Flacco was the 49'ers QB everyone would be falling over themselves to praise and slobber on him. It's just not going to happen here.

I'm happy that we're playing in a dome so Joe can let it fly, keep the scoreboard moving, and....oh God we've become the team I've always hated.

Hmm, actually it's kind of sweet having a good offense.

I would take Flacco over anyone! The problem is not when the National Media doubts him, it is when our fans did. Flacco is Elite ... Say it 10 times in front of a mirror. If your still living after the 10th time then it is TRUE !!!!

BOHLIEVE BALTIMORE >>>>> BOHLIEVE

Let's look at how Flacco has played since his rookie year in context of these splits. I am excluding his rookie season because it doesn't seem like we get a fair representation of the splits if we include his rookie season.

Flacco played in no dome games during his rookie year, so there's a good reason for us to leave out the rookie stats.

Flacco's rookie season "games with extra time to prepare" were the very 1st and 2nd games of his career, so it isn't too helpful to compare numbers as the greenest of rookies in his first ever starts to what he is really capable of.

And finally, his rookie playoff numbers aren't relevant to how he can really play in the playoffs. He was only the 8th rookie to ever start a playoff game, and the first (and still only one of two) to start THREE playoff games as a rookie. To put it simply, rookie playoff numbers don't mean much when you look at all-time playoff numbers, because so few of the playoff numbers we can look at for all players in NFL history actually involve rookies.

So given all of those factors, I think it's appropriate to leave out his rookie season. Now, on to the numbers:

Joe Flacco (Excluding Rookie Season: 2009-2012)

73 Games (ALL) [39 On The Road = 53.4%]
1402/2326, 16610 Yards, 103 TD, 49 INT
60.3%, 7.14 Y/A, 228 Y/G, 88.0 QB Rating

Now, let's analyze the splits. First, I'll present the splits for situations that mirror what he'll be dealing with in the Super Bowl; The Super Bowl will meet all 3 of the following criteria: It is a "game with extra time to prepare", a "dome game", and a "post-season game":

9 Games With Extra Time To Prepare (Season Openers + After Bye) [2 On The Road = 22.2%]
173/275, 2153 Yards, 14 TD, 3 INT
62.9%, 7.83 Y/A, 239 Y/G, 99.6 QB Rating

4 Dome Games [4 On The Road = 100%]
99/158, 1224 Yards, 10 TD, 1 INT
62.7%, 7.75 Y/A, 306 Y/G, 105.0 QB Rating

9 Post-Season Games [7 On The Road = 77.8%]
152/265, 1948 Yards, 15 TD, 5 INT
57.4%, 7.35 Y/A, 216 Y/G, 91.5 QB Rating

One of these 22 games is an overlap, the 2011 Divisional Play-Off Game vs Houston was both a "post-season game" and a "game with extra time to prepare", so we only count the stats from that game once in the combined average; all of the other games only qualified under one of the three splits. That's why we see 21 individual games worth of stats in the combined average below:

21 Individual Games [13 On The Road = 61.9%]
410/671, 5149 Yards, 37 TD, 9 INT
61.1%, 7.67 Y/A, 245 Y/G, 97.8 QB Rating

Now, let's analyze the opposite splits.

64 Games Without Extra Time To Prepare [37 On The Road = 57.8%]
1229/2051, 14457 Yards, 89 TD, 46 INT
59.9%, 7.05 Y/A, 226 Y/G, 86.5 QB Rating

69 Outdoor Games [35 On The Road = 50.7%]
1303/2168, 15386 Yards, 93 TD, 48 INT
60.1%, 7.10 Y/A, 223 Y/G, 86.8 QB Rating

64 Regular Season Games [32 On The Road = 50%]
1250/2061, 14662 Yards, 88 TD, 44 INT
60.7%, 7.11 Y/A, 229 Y/G, 87.6 QB Rating

Obviously there are many more overlap games in these sets, for instance all of the "post-season games" are also "outdoor games" and all but one of them is also a "game with extra time to prepare." But also, there is some overlap with some of the games from the first set of splits; for instance, of those 64 "regular season games", 4 of them were "dome games". So, of these 197 games, 52 of them were unique individual games where NONE of the original 3 split criteria applied (these are all games where there was NOT extra time to prepare, it was in the regular season, AND it was outdoors):

52 Individual Games [26 On The Road = 50%]
992/1655, 11461 Yards, 66 TD, 40 INT
59.9%, 6.93 Y/A, 220 Y/G, 84.1 QB Rating

And now let's introduce one more stat split that will be relevant to this whole study.

34 Home Games
657/1056, 8484 Yards, 54 TD, 17 INT
62.2%, 8.03 Y/A, 250 Y/G, 97.7 QB Rating

39 Road Games
745/1270, 8126 Yards, 49 TD, 32 INT
58.7%, 6.40 Y/A, 208 Y/G, 80.0 QB Rating

Analysis

Let's compare Flacco's QB Rating for each split:

Games With Extra Time To Prepare vs Normal Time: 99.6 > 86.5
Games Played In Dome vs Outdoors: 105.0 > 86.8
Games Played In Post-Season vs Regular Season: 91.5 > 87.6

As you can see, he is better in all cases when given extra time to prepare, in domes, and in the post-season.

Putting it all together:

When Flacco has extra time to prepare, plays in a dome, or is playing in the post-season, his QB Rating is much better than when he plays without extra time, outdoors in the regular season.

97.8 > 84.1

What makes this all the more impressive is that the 21 games representing that 97.8 QB Rating came 61.9% ON THE ROAD, while the 52 games representing that 84.1 QB Rating came exactly 50% on the road.

This is important, because as I demonstrated earlier, Flacco *usually* plays much worse on the Road to the tune of a 97.7 average at home vs an 80.0 on the road. Except that in these kind of games, he performs at much higher rate than otherwise, despite being more often on the road.

My conclusion is that Flacco is given a serious advantage by having this extra time to prepare, playing the Super Bowl in a dome, and given his nature as a very high performing play-off quarterback who steps up in big games. You've got all three factors in one game. This could be huge!

But of course, past stats aren't everything, and these stats are all with complete disregard for the defenses he was playing against in each situation, so we'll just have to wait and see as usual, but I have pretty high hopes for what we'll see from him on February 3.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by StingerNLG

This is what you have to expect. Joe Flacco being on the Baltimore Ravens will NEVER get the respect he deserves, like the team will never get the respect they deserve (and earn). If Flacco was the 49'ers QB everyone would be falling over themselves to praise and slobber on him. It's just not going to happen here.

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This! Anybody but the Ravens. Media still holding on for the last chance they can proclaim they were right. Hell, Ravens have beat up on the talking heads these last three games so much, they are desperate to be right at least once. Time will tell, its going to seem like eternity for game day to get here. Still Wacko for Flacco and the Ravens team!

The media LOVES mobile QBs, because they are FLASHY. Especially guys like Kaepernick and Wilson and RG3 who actually have a solid arm when they need to throw down field. They become this "unstoppable force" because they can dash all over the place, and "can beat you more than one way"

A pocket QB is way more efficient than a mobile QB. As can be seen with RG3 this year. Moving and running in this league makes you a runner, which means the defense is going to SMASH you at every opportunity. And eventually, you pay the price.