Draft Analysis: 12/06/07

As of today, I firmly believe that Matt Ryan will be the next quarterback of the Baltimore Ravens.

Steve McNair is done. I predict the team will release him in the offseason, assuming he doesn't decide to retire. There's no value in keeping him any longer. Even though he led us to our best regular season ever, hindsight shows that acquiring him was a mistake. His value hasn't justified his long-term cost, and we will take a cap hit to get him off the roster.

Kyle Boller is running out of chances. Injuries and McNair have turned him into the Baltimore yo-yo. He's starting, he's not. He's starting, he's not. We have him for one more year and that will likely be it.

Troy Smith is not the answer. He's a short quarterback who's not all that mobile and doesn't pass very well. He may be a fantastic leader who had a solid college career, but he's not pro material. We can and should keep him around as a backup and perhaps his accuracy will improve enough to give him a shot, but I don't expect that to happen.

We need a quarterback to carry this franchise into the next decade. There will be no worthwhile veterans available this offseason. Culpepper has failed in Oakland. Leftwich has failed in Atlanta. The Eagles aren't likely to simply release McNabb and acquiring him in a trade will just be another McNair-like stopgap; he may give us one or two good years with his beat-up body but he will not lead us to a championship. We're not going to burn a top-ten draft pick to get Derek Anderson back from Cleveland (or Brady Quinn for that matter, who would be much harder for them to trade contract-wise). That leaves the draft.

Here's a quick list of the 32 teams in the NFL and their QB, either a current starter with some life left or a young guy groomed as the replacement. I put two names on a couple of the lists.

New England - Tom Brady
Buffalo - J.P. Losman, Trent Edwards
N.Y. Jets - Kellen Clemens
Miami - John Beck
Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger
Cleveland - Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn
Baltimore - Kyle Boller
Cincinnati - Carson Palmer
San Diego - Philip Rivers
Denver - Jay Cutler
Kansas City - Brodie Croyle
Oakland - JaMarcus Russell
Indianapolis - Peyton Manning
Jacksonville - David Garrard
Tennessee - Vince Young
Houston - Matt Schaub
Dallas - Tony Romo
N.Y. Giants - Eli Manning
Washington - Jason Campbell
Philadelphia - Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb
Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers
Minnesota - Tarvaris Jackson
Detroit - Jon Kitna
Chicago - Rex Grossman
Seattle - Matt Hasselbeck
Arizona - Matt Leinart
St. Louis - Marc Bulger
San Francisco - Alex Smith
Tampa Bay - Jeff Garcia
New Orleans - Drew Brees
Carolina - Jake Delhomme
Atlanta - VOID

Looking at that list, here are the teams that would even consider drafting a QB in the first: Buffalo, Miami, Baltimore, Kansas City, Jacksonville, Green Bay, Minnesota, Detroit, Chicago, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Atlanta.

Let's rule out Jacksonville, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay. Those teams will all be making the playoffs as a near certainty and will not be in position to make the pick. We can drop off San Francisco too, they don't have their pick. The remaining teams are in two groups: terrible (Miami, Atlanta) and mediocre (Buffalo, Baltimore, Kansas City, Minnesota, Detroit, Chicago, Carolina).

Of the two terrible teams who will definitely be drafting in front of us, Atlanta is a lock to take a QB. This is as big a slam dunk as I've ever seen, and Brian Brohm is almost certainly that guy. As for Miami with the #1 overall, I just don't see it. For one thing, I'm not sure any of the QBs are worth #1 overall compared to the other options on the board. Surely they would take Glenn Dorsey or Jake Long before they'd grab a QB. Not to mention they just took John Beck high in the second round. They'll be giving him a chance next year no matter how badly he finishes this lost season of theirs.

So let's take Brian Brohm and Atlanta off the board. The question becomes: do we get Matt Ryan?

I expect Minnesota to finish strong and either make the playoffs or just miss out. Tarvaris Jackson is starting to mature and they would be better served by taking a talented WR to help him out. I doubt they will be inclined to take a QB, nor will they be in position.

Buffalo is 6-6 and still has games against Miami, Cleveland, the Giants and Philly. I have to believe they'll wind up 8-8 or better. Plus, they might not be ready to give up on either of their QBs and start fresh. They're out.

Carolina has Jake Delhomme, who is young enough to lead them for a few more years. They have a brutal closing schedule (Jacksonville, Seattle, Dallas, Tampa Bay) and could easily draft before us. But a QB would be a big luxury for them right now and a big slap to the injured Delhomme, who made Steve Smith into a feared receiver (see how he's doing this year with Carr and Testaverde). I'm giving them about a 1% chance of actually taking a QB.

Detroit would be wise to take a young QB to learn from Kitna, as Palmer did. But they're 6-6 and should win at least the home game against Kansas City. I think they'll draft behind us and would have to trade up to interfere with our draft.

That leaves the two real threats other than Atlanta: Kansas City and Chicago. Both have young QBs (Croyle and Grossman) who have seen little success, and both are free-falling to close out the season. I predict both will finish 6-10 or worse and likely draft before us. If this is the case, then we will need to make a trade to get a QB. It's very hard for me to imagine either of these teams passing on a first-round quarterback.

So let's say we reach the draft and we're sitting behind three or more teams who are likely to grab a quarterback. What then?

Well, we can draft someone else. What are our needs? Pro covered this topic pretty well in his recent post. We're set at RB and TE. We could use a game-breaking WR but surprise, this draft doesn't have an obvious one. Our offensive line is hot and cold these days but we have a ton of young players there and even if Ogden and Flynn are both gone, we're likely to go with Terry, Yanda, Brown, Chester, and Grubbs as starters with Gaither a possibility if he makes progress. If anything we will need a veteran to anchor the line, not another raw rookie to be inactive. We are solid at DT and FS/SS. We have a set of talented LBs and I don't see Ray Lewis going anywhere for a couple more years; besides, MLB is a relatively easy position for a top rookie to step in and play immediately (see Vilma, Tatupu, Ryans, Willis, etc.). That leaves DE and CB. At DE we will eventually need to replace Trevor Pryce and at CB we could use an elite player to be ready to replace Samari Rolle. Here's the short list of guys at either position who would be talented enough to take in the top half of the first round:

Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State

That's pretty much it. MAYBE you stretch the list for Vernon Gholston. MAYBE. And both Jenkins and Campbell are underclassmen not guaranteed to enter the draft.

I think Chris Long goes before we get a reasonable shot at him; teams always want an elite pass rusher. The other two are both picks that would make me reasonably happy. But would they signal a turning point in the Ravens franchise? No. Our defense is still playing at a fantastic level and adding another elite player there will not have as big an impact as fixing our offense will.

That's why I think that if we see both Kansas City and Chicago in front of us on the draft board, I believe we will trade up in order to select Matt Ryan. I think we can do it without giving up next year's first pick; according to the draft value chart we could reasonably go from pick #12 to pick #6 at the cost of this year's second-round pick only. Plus, Ozzie is a talented GM and trades near the top of the board have favored the lower team in "point value" in recent years because weak teams who need multiple players are often looking to move down.

Matt Ryan has a lot going for him. He has started for 2.5 years for Boston College and done consistently well. He has no big-talent WRs skewing his stats; instead, he makes the most of average talent and spreads the ball around extremely well. He's a 60% passer who can make all the throws down the field that he would need to make. He may not have Boller's cannon of an arm, but he does have better mechanics and better decision-making ability. He's not a rushing threat but he's mobile enough to avoid pass rushers while in the pocket. He's got the height and size you want from an NFL QB at 6'4" and 220 lbs. He is consistently described as cool under pressure and a capable leader. He's a tough guy as well; he played most of his junior year with a high ankle sprain and still did very well.

We will be in good position to do what teams like San Diego and Cleveland have done in recent years: take a QB in the first round to put pressure on an underachieving incumbent and see what happens. Start Kyle Boller next year with Matt Ryan behind him. If Boller steps up to the challenge, we could make the playoffs and challenge for a title. If he wilts, we will be ready to start Ryan near the end of the year and hand him the full keys to the offense the following year. If Ray Lewis bitches about the offense starting over, we can tell him we tried it his way and all it did was set us back two years or more. Without McNair we would either be looking at a successful Kyle Boller leading the team or far more likely, we'd all be excited about the coming era of Brady Quinn in Baltimore. Let's not make that mistake again.

We all know quarterbacks are a crapshoot in the NFL, but sometimes you just have to keep rolling the dice, and I believe Matt Ryan is our best bet. Look for him in a Ravens uniform next year.

Couple little things

I agree about Minnesota, they're making a surge and Jackson is actually starting to play well. Miami also makes sense given the high second round pick spent on Beck. Jake Long or Dorsey makes a lot of sense for them.

1) Detroit took Stanton last year. I doubt they take someone in the first round
2) Gerrard is playing well in Jacksonville, I don't see them even considering a first round QB.
3) I highly doubt green bay as well, Aaron Rodgers is still on that team right? I thought he did alright filling in for Favre.
4) Chicago is much more likely to trade for McNabb than to draft a QB in the first. It's possible I suppose.

I also wouldn't immediately stick Brohm in Atlanta. It's going to be an interesting offseason.

If no QB, I can see why Chris Long makes sense, though personally I'd go for Malcolm Jenkins first then make a run at Kendall Langford with the third round comp or trading down in the second to pick up a third to take him earlier in the third.

Of course, if the Ravens play like they did last night the rest of the season, they could win out. If that happens, things change drastically.

Solid take and we'll see how it turns out!

1. I completely forgot about Stanton in Detroit, and I know nothing about how his progress has been. With Kitna a viable starter for a few more years, I'm not sure they're in the market for a QB anyway, but they were at least a possibility based on their current free-fall and the discontent of the fan base.

2. Garrard is young and playing well in Jacksonville, I was looking more at their poor depth behind him and the fact that to my knowledge he could be a FA soon. It's a moot point as they'll definitely draft behind us.

3. Green Bay does have Aaron Rodgers, I listed them only because most of the things I've heard about Rodgers so far have been negatives. Besides, Brett Favre might play until he's 50.

4. Chicago is a potential destination for McNabb but I'm afraid the Eagles will price him out of the market for any team in the top half of the draft. Chicago and Baltimore are definitely the most likely landing spots for McNabb next year, though Philly could always keep him around.

As to your last point, if the Ravens surge late and win out or even go 3-1, we might drop behind many of the mediocre teams out there and then the cost to go up and get Ryan would be prohibitively expensive (but not impossible). Andre Woodson or McNabb would become more likely in that scenario.

Not sure Matt Ryan is the answer


:jester: :jester:

Gabrosin, an excellent analysis my man, very thorough. I actually would like to see 'Matty-Ice' in a Ravens uniform.

In our conference, the hated and feared AFC North, it seems like everyone has at least an above average offensive attack now, heck even friggin Cleveland. (don't even get me started on Derek Anderson)

Anywho, with Big Ben in Pitt, Carson in Cincy and now the emerging 'Mr. Anderson' in Cleveland, the Ravens had better be looking for their own field general or they're gonna be scraping the bottom of the barrel in this conference.

The thing is that I agree with you whole-heartedly. I'm a huge Chris Long fan, I think that he's the most complete DE out of all of the guys that'll shake loose in next year's upcoming draft.

He's arguably the most ready to go from Day 1 out of the bunch. Especially if he played here with the Ravens, or pretty much any of the teams that run a 3-4 defense. (I'd better keep my voice down, the friggin Pats might've heard that, I'm sure their video-taping this conversation!...Shhhhh!)

I just know that some S.O.B. is gonna swoop right in front of my Ravens and snatch him right from under them. It happens every year. Like with the Ben Grubbs situation.

Don't get me wrong, I like Grubbs and I think that he's gonna blossom into a Pro-Bowler in no time. But the reality of the situation is that the Ravens were targeting both Brady Quinn and Joe Staley before both Cleveland and the 49ers traded up in front of the Ravens and plucked them both right from their grasp.

Now this year, they'll be a team that's willing to bet the farm that Ryan is their franchise QB and they'll be willing to do whatever it takes to get right in front of the Ravens and scoop him up right before their eyes.

It pays to have a draft pick in front of the Ravens. Because of their strong draft history, once a team has an inkling that a player is high on the Ravens board, it's considered a lock.

Think about it. If someone told you they had a pretty good tip on who's gonna be a winner in a situation where everyone is gambling in the first place, that's good enough for some people to jump right on that with no questions asked.

Mike Nolan and Phil Savage are well aware of what the Ravens are able to accomplish with their draft evaluations. Man, they've GOT TO stop letting these guys go to other teams only to screw the Ravens over when it counts.

Between the Bengals, the Jags, the Browns and now the 49ers, the Ravens will be lucky if they can get their 2nd round choices in the first round.

It's no secret that the Ravens can surely benefit from acquiring a top flight QB. Kyle Boller is playing his heart out but in 5 years he's flip-flopped more than Hungry Jack pancakes at a stack eatin contest.

Whether or not he finally, finally turns a corner or not remains to be seen, but trust me when I say that unless the Ravens have a top 5 pick, some team will be more than willing to give up a 2nd rounder to trade up and snatch Ryan right from underneath them. (and I'd never wish my team would lose to get one, that's just stupid)

The main issue the Ravens will have is what happens with Mac9. I wish I was more of an expert on the cap but unless Mac9 retires it'll probably be more expensive to cut him than it will be to keep him.

Heck, even as an expensive back-up, he's more useful than a much larger cap hit that'll prohibit the Ravens from being players for T-Sizzle and any other FA's that may be beneficial to the team next year.

If they keep him, it's expensive. If they cut him, it's even more expensive. And don't forget the blockbuster deals that QB's drafted in the top ten are getting these days.

Remember that just two years ago with the 10th pick of the NFL Draft, QB Matt Leinart got a 6-year, $51 MILLION dollar contract which averages out to about $6.75 MILLION per season and $14 MILLION dollars in guaranteed money.

Also consider that JaMarcus 'Hamburglar' Russell just last year signed a six-year, $61 million contract. The deal includes $29.2 million in guarantees (all six years' base salaries), with a one-time performance bonus bringing the guaranteed amount to $32 million. Another $7 million is available through incentives.

I'll bet Al Davis' arse is still hurtin from the RAPING he got on Russell's contract.

On the other hand, Mac9 on 6/10/2006 signed a five-year, $32 million contract. The deal included an initial roster bonus of $11 million and contains $12 million in incentives. 2007: $3 million (+ $1 million option bonus), 2008: $4 million, 2009-2010: $6 million, 2011: Free Agent. Cap charges: $7.35 million (2008), $8.45 million (2009-2010).

And although it's nowhere near as bad but it does count, remember that Kyle Boller on 9/6/2007 signed a one-year, $3 million contract extension through 2008. The deal included a $400,000 signing bonus. 2007: $600,000, 2008: $2 million.

I'm not the smartest egg in the carton, but let's do the math shall we?

Just for Mac 9 and Boller, this is what the Ravens will be charged against the cap in 2008.

Mac9-2008: $7.35 million
Boller-2008: $2 million
Total: $9.35 million for both QB's

If the Ravens added a top ten QB, even based upon Leinart's contract as a 'best case scenario' from two years ago along with a modest 12% rate increase for 2008, the cost for a drafted player like a Matt Ryan would be off the charts.

It'll come up to around a 6 year, $57 million dollar contract with $18 million dollars in guaranteed money which averages out to around $9.5 million per season which is more than both of the previous starters for the Ravens will receive in 2008 COMBINED.

Can you say holy shyt! My point is that they're damned if they do and damned if they don't.

Should they allow Mac9 to stay for one more season, then it's a $7.35 million dollar cap hit and if they cut him it's even worse. It's a $15.8 million dollar cap hit (accelerated cap cost if he's cut) plus on top of that AT BEST they'll be adding a rookie top ten pick's contract that averages out to close to $10 million per season.

My math might be a little off on Mac9's cap hit so any cap experts please feel free to chime in. I may even be underestimating it by a large margin.

I don't know if it's a good idea to have one guy leaving and one guy coming and having it cost you close to 1/4th of your cap space. You do know what that means, don't you?

It means that T-Sizzle is gonna be playin for another team next year more likely than not. When you've got over $25 million dumped into one position, it doesn't leave much wiggle room to do alot of large deals.

Heck, even if T-Sizzle took a 'hometown discount', it wouldn't be low enough for them to make a comparable market offer.

We all know that the bottom line is that the 'dollars gotta make cents'.

I figured that with the contracts being totally 'F'd' like they are and how much it would cost for them to move Mac9, that it was more likely that they'd draft another position like DE rather than at QB.

Do I wish they'd just f-ing do it. Heck yeah I do. Will they? We'll have to wait and see, but they're gonna have to 'massage' the cap so much that I wouldn't be surprised if it took out a sexual harrasment charge on the Ravens cap people.

And oh yeah, you don't even WANNA know how many players are gonna be let go after this season because of the cap hits. But that's another topic for another time.

Just my opinion-Pro-

You're right, adding a top ten QB contract would be pretty brutal, and so would dumping McNair. You mentioned McNair retiring; I don't know if that does anything to ease the cap burden or not. I had always thought it worked the same as releasing or trading a player: you take the hit from the remaining years of signing bonus right then and there.

However, I don't think contracts are the reason this wouldn't happen. First, we can release/retire McNair and spread his cap hit out over two seasons... that will give us a pretty big chunk of the room we would need, even though it would hurt us a little in the future. Second, I can't imagine Jonathan Ogden coming back after this season's debacle, and his contract is one of the whales on our list; I believe most of it is in salary, not signing bonus at this point. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mike Flynn get cut or retire, though I know that won't have as much impact as Ogden. Who else goes? Well, I think both Mason and Rolle will be staying. Mason is playing very well and still has a lot of life left in him. Rolle has unfortunately missed a big chunk of the year, but he's still a serviceable corner and it doesn't look like we've got much behind him if he goes. And I think just about every other major player has sealed their spot on the roster for the coming year. Maybe a guy like Mike Anderson will be released to make room for younger players. Or maybe Stover will hang it up, but his salary is modest anyway compared to the rest.

As for Suggs, remember that his current cap number is very large thanks to hitting his sack escalator, and if we give him a long-term deal we'll realize a net cap savings in the short term, even with a large signing bonus. I can't imagine he'll be going anywhere. The one unfortunate thing is that we likely won't have the space to threaten a franchise tag on him.

But we can borrow a lesson from our neighbors to the south: the cap is just a bookkeeping exercise. Extend a guy here, convert some salary into signing bonus there, presto, you've got another ten million to play with this year. Yeah, it might not be the best idea for our long-term health as a team... but neither is letting go of a young talent like Suggs or holding off on drafting a new QB.

You hit the nail on the head about other teams trying to snake our picks... that's the cost of continued success. However, drafting a QB may be the one exception here, both because we've NEVER had success with drafting a QB (okay, maybe Derek Anderson, jury's still out there) and because you can't just jump up and grab a QB unless you need one soon... it's not like a WR or CB or DL where you always know the guy you picked will be able to get on the field and have an impact if he's any good. Even if a team like the Bengals though Matt Ryan was the next Johnny Unitas, they wouldn't take him unless they were ready to give up on Carson Palmer. And the teams with Ravens ties who have interfered in past years (Jags, 49ers, Browns) won't be in a position to do anything of the sort this year. Plus, Ozzie has shown that he has the initiative to offer a low pick in exchange for jumping up a spot or two to grab a guy he really wants (see Haloti Ngata). In Ozzie We Trust!

I'll continue to update my draft thoughts as the season ends and the offseason begins... this one will be huge for the Ravens and could define our next decade.

It's Mac9's deal that's the hamstring, not the rook QB's. Question, how much cheaper would a top 10 DE be then a top 10 QB - A- not much. It's Mac's deal that lets us do nothing, as we would have over $6m in cap space tied up in a player incapable of playing at this level any longer. I'd rather have that money tied up in someone incapable of playing at this level, YET.
Mac will be a june 1st cut saving over $2m against the cap, Suggs will re-sign clearing more space(yeah you heard that right), and Ray Ray, IMO will get a hometown discount extension cap reduction move/ This will allow us to bring in a full draft class and maybe even a guy like Asomugha or Samuels.

I've always liked Asante Samuels, he's one of those guys who seems to always be around the ball making plays.

The problem is that he's probably gonna command a deal that's gonna break someone's bank, and we all know that the Ravens are all about 'fair market value'.

Wouldn't that be a coop if the Ravens were to swoop down and nab a guy of Samuels ability? I seriously doubt it though as Rolle would most definitely become a cap casualty in the process.

If the Ravens were to somehow be able to 'massage' the cap and make it so that they could afford to bring in 'Matty-Ice' then I'm all for it. I like his accuracy in short to mid-range passing although his deep ball is a little shaky at times.

Watching his last game against VT, it's a shame that such a great first half will be overshadowed by a horrific last 3 minutes where while under duress he threw two picks.

In all fairness it was against one of the best defenses in college football and his offensive line was getting their arses kicks at that point in the game.

They played beyond their abilities for the majority of the game but when it counted the V-Tech defense stepped it up a notch and the B.C. line just couldn't match their intensity.

I've always said that if given a choice between 'Cadillac' Brohm and 'Matty-Ice', I'd take Ryan 10 times out of 10. But at what cost?

If the Ravens did take Ryan, of course they'd have to cut McNair whenever it was frugal to spread the cap hit over two seasons.

Second, do you start him right away and make the same mistake that they made with Boller or do you let him sit then once Boller's contract is up you let him start?

I truly believe that the way that the Bengals brought Carson Palmer along was probably the best way to go. They accepted that if they put him in too early that it could ruin his confidence, so instead of letting him start the entire season, they let him play a few series per game his first year.

Then he earned the starting spot the following training camp and the rest is history.

The same can happen here although a few players would get screwed in the process. For one, Boller's contract is up after the 2008 season, so if they were to draft Matty-Ice, unless he had a Drew Brees-like season like when the Chargers drafted Phillip Rivers he's still f-ing outta here.

Heck, whether or not Boller does well wouldn't even be the point if they used a top 10-15 pick on a QB. You just can't sink that much cash into a guy to ride the pine.

Just my opinion.-Pro-

Quote:

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In our conference, the hated and feared AFC North, it seems like everyone has at least an above average offensive attack now, heck even friggin Cleveland. (don't even get me started on Derek Anderson)

Anywho, with Big Ben in Pitt, Carson in Cincy and now the emerging 'Mr. Anderson' in Cleveland, the Ravens had better be looking for their own field general or they're gonna be scraping the bottom of the barrel in this conference.

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See, here is the issue I have always had with this analogy. It's what has plagued our team for years.

Does anyone think that any of these QB's right now would be nearly as successful without the players around them playing well?

Look at Ben Rothlesberger for example. Do you guys think without guys like Gerome Bettis and Willie Parker, Hines Ward and Alan Fanaca that he would be this good? In 2003 and 2004 he handed the ball off almost 75% of his snaps. It wasn't until 2006 that he started throwing the ball more, and that year he went south after losing Bettis. Without that running game behind him I am not sure they are a Super Bowl team at all.


Carson Palmer without Chad Johnson and Houshmondzadah (sp) also wouldn't be as successful in this league. And really, how successful has he been? With Palmer under center the Bengals have been 8-8, 11-5, 8-8, and now 4-8. His overall STATS have been great with the team around him. But he hasn't been able to pick the Bengals up and put them on his shoulders.


I'm just not sold that the other QB's in this division are that good if you give them our older offensive lines to protect them, and Clarence Moore, Travis Taylor, Kevin Johnson, and Randy Hymes to throw the ball too. Any of those QB's on the Ravens from 2003-2006 would suffer the same way that our QB's have.

Pro- Maybe Samari is willing to take a pay cut to prove he still has it in him. He seems liek the type that is prideful enough to do so, rather then get the axe. I truly beleive he still feels like he belongs on the field with this defense.

I'd sit Ryan for the year. Boller is signed for one more year as starter, adn Troy Smith is still under contract. Smith should be able to hand the ball off, run a few times and make a few throws. Jus twhat the doctor ordered for a backup. I'd prefer Any early drafted QB to see less then a full games worht of snaps during his rookie campaign. I would then liek a capable backup or re-tread to have an honest Competition for his second season.

IF Boller has another middling, inconsistent season next year, he may want to stick around as backup, or perhaps Smith is good enough by then. We will see.

There's no way they would drop a rookie QB into the starting lineup again, not after how Boller was handled. Start Boller for a year and keep Ryan warm behind him. If Boller stinks, we've got his replacement ready. If Boller takes us to the playoffs, well, it'll be a good problem to have. If we decide to go this route I'd love to see Boller take another one-year extension. What we really want is to have him under contract for one more year if he breaks out... that way we would be able to get some trade value out of him. As you said, it's just not reasonable for a first-round QB to sit on the bench for multiple years while you give a huge new contract to the guy in front of him. But the Chargers didn't get anything for Drew Brees because he became a free agent. The Browns might be in great shape to get a first-round pick for Derek Anderson and still have Brady Quinn waiting to take over. By giving Boller another small extension we insure ourselves against his success and it costs us little if he fails.