AFC North Tiebreakers discussion?

Has anyone analyzed the tie-breakers yet?

Going into last night's game, the Ravens would have clinched the Division with a win, based on a 4 game lead with 4 to go and a sweep (1st tie-breaker) of the Bengals. Now having a two-game lead with 4 games to go, the Ravens would secure the Division with any combination of 3 Ravens wins or Bengals losses; the Bengals would secure the Division with any combination of seven (?) Ravens wins or Bengals losses.

However, for someone much smarter than I, if the Ravens win but 2 or 1 and there is a tie at 10-6, 11-5, or 12-4: what combinations of Ravens wins or Bengals losses would then required to win the Division? And wins against whom? i.e., Division wins are more important because that's the first tie-breaker. So (if Im interpreting the tie-breakers correctly) a Ravens sweep of Steelers and Browns plus a Bengals loss to Pittsburgh would give the Ravens the Division, regardless of the KC and Bills games. Or a Ravens loss to either the Browns or Steelers with a Bengals win over the Steelers would give the Bengals the Division, if otherwise tied.

If it's tied and the Division records are identical, the Ravens currently hold a 7-2 vs 6-3 advantage in the records against common opponents.

Here are tiebreakers:

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

Here are the remaining games:

Bengals schedule:

Dec 10 Oakland
Dec 18 @Indianapolis
Dec 24 @Denver
Dec 31 Pittsburgh

Ravens schedule:

Dec 10 @Kansas City
Dec 17 Cleveland
Dec 24 @Pittsburgh
Dec 31 Buffalo

And each team's performance under the tie-breakers is listed at nfl.com

Realistically I see us winning 3 to 4 of our remaining games.

There's not a chance in hell of Cincy pulling into a tie with us unless a rift develops in the space/time continuum between now and the end of the season.

:agree

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Originally Posted by RAVENOUS52

Realistically I see us winning 3 to 4 of our remaining games.

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So do I, and 3 wins does it. But we have 11 days to fret over KC, and I'd like to know if we need to win three or can get away with two .

Alright T, I think it goes like this based on the layout you provided.

Obviously head to head is a wash now.

Next breakdown would be win/loss record within our own division.

Right now, we are 3-1
Cincy is 4-1

This could be ugly if we don't beat Cleveland if it comes down to a tie record with us and Cincy.

Based on what I've seen, I got to assume Cincy will beat Pittsburgh making them 5-1 in the division.
You never know though I suppose.

If that happens (Cincy beating Pittsburgh), (we end up with the same record as Cincy), but lose either one of our two remaining division games, then Cincy would win the division based on the better inner division record.

If we both end up tied, with the same inner division record, then the next tie breaker is too hard to determine right now.

Alot of that scenario still depends on what takes place between us and KC, Buffalo, and Cincy with Oakland, Denver.

Winning in KC next sunday would go a long way in our favor to give us the edge in that scenario.
Them losing to Oakland and/or Denver would also be real beneficial.

Too much football left to play between us, Cincy and the AFC to determine yet.

Now head to head against common opponents (league wide) I think we might have a slight edge on right now. (also depends on what they do against Oakland and Denver)

If we can win two of our next four, and Cincy loses one of it's next four, it won't matter.

We are in the drivers seat with this.

If we give up the drivers seat after how we started out, then quite frankly, we don't deserve to win the division.

Absolutely no chance we don't beat Cleveland at home. No chance.

I posted on the other board, but we basically have a magic number of 3, meaning we need 3 of the 8 games (Cincy and us) to end in our favor to clinch the division. You can think of us as being up on Cincy by 1.5 games.

There are some oddball situations in which we could win a tiebreaker with Cincy, but they are very unlikely, and we have absolutely no scenarios where we clinch the division with just 2 wins. Cincy runs the table and we need 3 wins.

Crystal Ball says:
Buffalo does us a favor and beats SD tomorrow.
We need KC or Denver, to knock off SD in SD. I think 1 of them will pull the upset.


I think we'll maintain our cushion on Cincy.
BENGALS REMAINING SCHEDULE

Dec 10 Oakland 1:00pm (W) Raiders are bad
Dec 18 @Indianapolis 8:30pm (L) Manning will pick their secondary apart
Dec 24 @Denver 4:15pm (W) Rookie QB could stymie the Donkeys
Dec 31 Pittsburgh 1:00pm (W) by the time this game takes place, Steelers will have totally quit.


RAVENS REMAINING SCHEDULE

Dec 10 @Kansas City 1:00pm (W) We'll be motivated, and rested. HUGE GAME!
Dec 17 Cleveland 1:00pm (W) Close game, but we'll win at home
Dec 24 @Pittsburgh 1:00pm (W) Close game, could go either way. Pitt will be wanting to avange their embarrassment
Dec 31 Buffalo 1:00pm (L) resting some guys for the playoff run, lose close game, UNLESS, we need the win to clinch the #2 seed.

If the above occurs, as I hope it does, we'll be the #2 seed.

I hate to say this, especially after getting our asses kicked in Cincy, but this division race is pretty much over. Baltimore, your 2006 AFC North Champs.

Seriously. Good job gang.

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we basically have a magic number of 3

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Yeah ... that's what I was afraid of. Our magic number likely rose from 2 to 3 by losing Thursday.:thumbdown: KC and Pitt on the road are not going to be easy wins, so we may need the Colts or Denver to help clinch it for us. We will definitely be scoreboard watching. Still a lot of palm sweating and pacing to do over the remainder of the season.

I doubt it comes down to tiebreakers. Even if we split our remaining games to go 11-5, the Bengals would have to win out. That's possible, but if they were likely to really go on a tear and win out, they would've beaten us by more than 13-7. That game showed that yes, they have a very good offense, one that will do better vs. the Colts than vs. our defense, but still probably not one that can overtake a Colts team in Irsayville still needing to lock up the No. 1 seed. Likewise, while the Cinci defense was surprisingly effective, expect them to have a much rougher time vs. Manning & co. than vs. our guys on little rest.

We are well-positioned to clinch either on Dec. 17 beating the Browns (if we also beat the Chiefs the week before and the Bengals lose to EITHER the Raiders or Colts) or Christmas Eve in Pittsburgh. We are also still well-positioned for the No. 2 seed - the Chargers have some tough games coming up too. No. 1 might be a bit out of reach.