Obama Pulls Ahead .... again
Mitt has dropped the ball twice and it's now cost him.
RCP has him behind or statistically even in all but one battleground state -- Missouri -- and he's fallen behind a full point in the RCP approval average. In Ohio, Obama opens up a 4 point lead. You may as well give WI, MI, and PA to Obama now, all of which are 5-7 points in favor of Obama. This is happening in the midst of tepid, at best, economic news.
As I have postulated before, the way Mitt wins this is by getting out in front and staying there. You're not going to win playing catch-up to an incumbent.
A month ago I would have said he has a 50-50 shot. Now I think it's fallen to 35-65.
Re: Obama Pulls Ahead .... again
Quote:
Originally Posted by
StingerNLG
I still think you are wrong here. Calling anything before September is just giving the left what they want.
Who's calling anything?
And are you denying he's trending the wrong way? Because he is and it's a rather fast trend given the state of the economy right now.
Re: Obama Pulls Ahead .... again
Well, apparently his internal polling is telling him something else other than these oversampled Dem polls. Not to mention Rasmussen is telling a different story too even having Romney up 4 nationally, up 2 in Iowa, only down 2 in Virginia, tied in Colorado, up in NC, and last looked up in Florida.
All this with Obama not just attacking Romney, but lying and accusing him of murder.
Yes, I am ready for Romney to start hitting back now. But something is telling him that he's still in position to counter-strike when the time is right. And I still say if all of this mattered NOW, the President who is supposed to walk on water and be the greatest thing since sliced bread would be demolishing Romney across the board.
http://www.dickmorris.com/the-real-poll-numbers/
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/...in_649504.html
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/20...enthusiasm.php
Concerned? Maybe a little. But not enough to start calling this less than 50/50. There is no reason Obama should be fighting for his life right now with all the wonders he has bestowed upon us common folk for the last 3.5 years.
Re: Obama Pulls Ahead .... again
Dick Morris's article has me scratching my head. He sites Obama being up one in Ohio and uses LV polls as his source. Well, the most recent ones put Obama up far above one point so I am not sure to what poll he is referring.
Rasmussen has a statistical tie (Romney +1) in their last poll in FL, which was over a month ago.
Re: Obama Pulls Ahead .... again
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonRaven
Who's calling anything?
And are you denying he's trending the wrong way? Because he is and it's a rather fast trend given the state of the economy right now.
Trending the wrong way based on what? The polls?
If I check Realclear the polls that have it trending the wrong way are either democrat polling firms, or registered voter polls.
I thought you said you only believed the LV polls.
Re: Obama Pulls Ahead .... again
Quote:
Originally Posted by
NCRAVEN
Trending the wrong way based on what? The polls?
If I check Realclear the polls that have it trending the wrong way are either democrat polling firms, or registered voter polls.
I thought you said you only believed the LV polls.
Uhh, you need to look again.
They are likely voter polls. Rasmussen has Mitt down from 2-3 months ago in Ohio, MI, WI, NC and Florida.
Even Fox News has it trending Obama ....
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012...support-slips/
Re: Obama Pulls Ahead .... again
I was referring to the National polls, which I think are a good indication of whihc way things are trending.
The Fox poll is an RV poll, and the over sampled Dem's by 9%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html
As far as the State polls, serious question from another thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by
NCRAVEN
Think about this. A media (NBC) that edits 911 tapes (Treyvon Martin), won't report stories that would hurt the image of Obama, or report half-truths to protect him.
Why should we trust their polling data to be accurate? I'm not saying they are lying, but I definitely think it's possible for example when they call... Wisconsin they call a city like Madison to get their sample. Or Virginia they call Fairfax.
Polls are fluid, and generally don't start getting accurate till after labor day when they want to keep their credibility up for future elections.
Re: Obama Pulls Ahead .... again
Mitt's announcing his VP pick tomorrow.
The speculation is hilarious, people are saying it's Ryan.. but it might not be.
Pawlenty while boring has grown on me, I also like McDonnell, I think Portman is out, but right now there are 4 people who know. Mitt & Ann, Beth (Mitt's long time assistant) and the VP pick.
Re: Obama Pulls Ahead .... again
It is strange that Mitt's campaign managers are letting the Dems run wild with these hack-n-slash adds and accusations without responding to any of them...at all.
Like AirFlacco said in another thread...Mitt remaining silent on these things doesn't really do a whole lot for his public image.
Sometimes I wonder if he really wants to win or if he thinks he has no shot, so he's not going to blow his wad on it?
Re: Obama Pulls Ahead .... again
Responding is a double edge sword. Yes you hit back and energize your base, but you can also legitimize the argument,
It's almost a no win situation.