Mayock: predicts just one QB in the 1st round c'mon man!

NFL Network's Mike Mayock stated on Path to the Draft that he only anticipates one quarterback being drafted in the first round.
It'll likely be Syracuse's Ryan Nassib, who is crystallizing as the draft's top QB. "I don’t think there’s going to be more than one quarterback taken in the first round, which is not what I thought three months ago," Mayock said. "I think there’s still going to be some activity at the back end of that first round, but most of the activity for quarterbacks this year? I think second and third rounds." It's not out of the question that West Virginia's Geno Smith could be available for the Jaguars at No. 33 overall.

Analysts say this same crap every year. Teams will always reach for QB's since it's such a highly valued position. I think 3 QB's will end up going in the first. Geno Smith, Nassib and Barkley.

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Originally Posted by Paintballguy

... I think 3 QB's will end up going in the first. Geno Smith, Nassib and Barkley.

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I hope you're right because that would mean the Ravens would (figuratively) have the 29th pick. It would also mean we'd have the (virtual) 59th pick in round 2... Bc

I don't think Matt Barkley will get drafted in the 2nd round let alone the first.

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Originally Posted by leachisabeast

I don't think Matt Barkley will get drafted in the 2nd round let alone the first.

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I'm not a Barkley fan at all. He has the USC noodle arm disease. I just think some team will reach for him. Who would've thought a close to 30 year old QB would go in the 1st round?

I say Mayock's claim is very plausible on the surface but by the end of round 1...we'll see a run. Look: there are two ways a QB is gonna get taken in round 1:

1) early in the round by a bad QB-needy team. The main issue here is do teams feel any of the QB's this year are top-10 worthy? I think most everyone would answer that with a "No". So if all of the top 10 teams feel this way (and for all appearances right now they all do feel this way) than the QB's start falling a la Aaron Rogers until...

2) The end of round 1. The teams there aren't QB needy but if those top 10 teams feel that a couple of the QB's are worth a 2nd round pick (which seems very plausible) they will be looking at making sure they get their choice in QB's. Jacksonville is the first team in round 2 that is QN-needy so any other team looking for a QB-say Buffalo or Arizona, Oakland, J-E-T-S, and possibly Philly or Cleveland-may very well start looking to trade into the end of round 1 to get their 1st choice QB. And teams like the Ravens and NE will probably be seriously interested in trading down. So we are looking at 5 and possibly 7 teams in the market to pick probably one of four QB's.

Thus the end of round 1, and the beginning of round 2 might see a run on QB's and thus make Mayock's claim wrong. ESPN and NFLN will be freaking out that no QB's are being taken as the draft moves out of the top 10 in round 1 and through the teens and into the late 20's. Those bad top 10 teams will get more and more anxious as round 1 proceeds. Some team will leap. Then a couple of others will leap too.

Geno, Barkeley, Nassib, Manuel all stand a good chance of being picked in such a late round run. Are they worth it? Probably not, but at the end of round 1 the draft changes from a buyer's market to a seller's market.

* It should be noted that in all the rumors circulating today and until the draft, a ton of rumors are saying that the top and middle of round 1 wil have a bunch of trades. That may well be true but the point here is that no one is talking much about late round trades because it starts to get too complicated to suss out those trades that will come on top of the mid-round trades. In other words there's little point for any Ravens trade rumors to happen because you would then have to figure out who our beloved team would trade with and that's a big unknown at this point.

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Originally Posted by Paintballguy

I'm not a Barkley fan at all. He has the USC noodle arm disease. I just think some team will reach for him. Who would've thought a close to 30 year old QB would go in the 1st round?

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This.

I think the thing to remember with the evaluators like Mayock, McShay, Kiper and such is that as the draft comes closer their rankings and mocks seem to change quite a lot. Is that because their evaluations of players in such a short space of time? No, it's because they're hearing things from F.O. sources/scouts and reflecting that information. Someone made the point about Mayock that he didn't have Chandler Jones anywhere on his list of edge defenders then in the last day or so before the draft he got wind of the Pats (presumably) loving him and bumped him way into his top 5.

A lot of what is coming out now in their rankings and such, to me, doesn't reflect their actual evaluation... but rather is probably closer to reporting what they are hearing.

It's like in the draft coverage, every so often during a pick you can see that they've been tipped off as to who it is going to be and try to take the conversation in that direction to make it appear that they knew all along. So much of the job is appearance.

lol at this thread hahaha

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Originally Posted by runrayrun27

lol at this thread hahaha

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hah I really thought more teams would reach for QB's. Guess they got smart.

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Originally Posted by Paintballguy

hah I really thought more teams would reach for QB's. Guess they got smart.

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AND the guy in the 1st...wasn't even in the top 3 you listed.

Thanks Buffalo! EJ fucking Manuel? LOL.

Honestly, this was the most interesting QB makeup in a draft I've ever seen. Shades of 2000, where the top 3 QBs were Pennington, Carmazzi, and Redman. Also, Tee Martin, Marc Bulger, and Spergeon Wynn. Oh yeah, and someone named Brady...

But yeah, after Brady, you had two decent starters in Pennington and Bulger, then a bunch of crap.