Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonRaven
Nope.
He's very popular in his district, but it's a district that does not hold much weight in state wide elections. It encompasses Racine, Kenosha and much of the plains to the west. State-wide, he's not a very popular figure and I do not see him being able to swing the state red, especially when you consider WI has not gone for the GOP since the 80's.
WI is beholden to two cities, Milwaukee and Madison. Neither of which will ever go red.
I think the narrative is written on him in Florida as well, accurate or not, seniors are not going to perceive him as some on the right are hoping. Seniors (LV's ages 65+) vote in lock step with the Dems, especially in Florida. The only exception to this was McCain 4 years ago. Polling since 2008 show overwhelming support for Obama by the seniors and I don't think Ryan changes that equation. In a state that's VERY close, it may very well come down to the senior vote in FL.
I can see him getting some traction in Ohio though. I think his message plays well there.
Link? not doubting just wanna see what you're basing that off of.
Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonRaven
Nope.
He's very popular in his district, but it's a district that does not hold much weight in state wide elections. It encompasses Racine, Kenosha and much of the plains to the west. State-wide, he's not a very popular figure and I do not see him being able to swing the state red, especially when you consider WI has not gone for the GOP since the 80's.
WI is beholden to two cities, Milwaukee and Madison. Neither of which will ever go red.
I think the narrative is written on him in Florida as well, accurate or not, seniors are not going to perceive him as some on the right are hoping. Seniors (LV's ages 65+) vote in lock step with the Dems, especially in Florida. The only exception to this was McCain 4 years ago. Polling since 2008 show overwhelming support for Obama by the seniors and I don't think Ryan changes that equation. In a state that's VERY close, it may very well come down to the senior vote in FL.
I can see him getting some traction in Ohio though. I think his message plays well there.
All due respect, but I still don't agree:
http://www.newsmax.com/newswidget/zo...n=widgetphase1
Zogby already says he's seeing a jump in poll numbers in swing states, which is exactly what I said picking Ryan should do over trying to nab one state.
And I don't know how Ryan won't play in Florida considering his medicare plan doesn't hurt them at all. Once he reminds Florida seniors that Obama cut Medicare by $700 billion to fund Obamacare, I think Florida will swing back pretty quickly.
Patience Houston, patience. :)
Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent
Quote:
Originally Posted by
NCRAVEN
Link? not doubting just wanna see what you're basing that off of.
Rasmussen just released a poll with his popularity rating in WI. It's only at 39%. 35% have no opinion of him. You can spin that both ways, of course.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
StingerNLG
All due respect, but I still don't agree:
http://www.newsmax.com/newswidget/zo...n=widgetphase1
Zogby already says he's seeing a jump in poll numbers in swing states, which is exactly what I said picking Ryan should do over trying to nab one state.
And I don't know how Ryan won't play in Florida considering his medicare plan doesn't hurt them at all. Once he reminds Florida seniors that Obama cut Medicare by $700 billion to fund Obamacare, I think Florida will swing back pretty quickly.
Zogby is the only poll showing that then. As I pointed out, he's not very well liked in WI and Gallup just put out a poll saying he has numbers similar to Dan Quayle. Any "jump" is going to be short-term and Zogby himself calls it a bump in the link. Not to mention, this particular poll puts them tied. Tied is where they've been all summer.
As for Florida and the seniors, I don't doubt what you say. I agree with what Obamacare and the Ryan Plan means to to seniors. My point is that the narrative is already written. You're arguing what the plan says and means. I am arguing that it does not mater. That it's already in their heads that Ryan is the dude that will walk then into the grave. And you can thank the AARP for that. They have been lying to their members for decades and they lap it up.
Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonRaven
Rasmussen just released a poll with his popularity rating in WI. It's only at 39%. 35% have no opinion of him. You can spin that both ways, of course.
At least he has more positives then negatives, ya know?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonRaven
Zogby is the only poll showing that then. As I pointed out, he's not very well liked in WI and Gallup just put out a poll saying he has numbers similar to Dan Quayle. Any "jump" is going to be short-term.
As for Florida and the seniors, I don't doubt what you say. I agree with what Obamacare and the Ryan Plan means to to seniors. My point is that the narrative is already written. You're arguing what the plan says and means. I am arguing that it does not mater. That it's already in their heads that Ryan is the dude that will walk then into the grave. And you can thank the AARP for that. They have been lying to their members for decades and they lap it up.
Do you think it's possible... or even likely that Romney/Ryan can inform them of this to a point that the narrative changes?
Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent
Quote:
Originally Posted by
NCRAVEN
At least he has more positives then negatives, ya know?
Yeah, but you still need to look at the demographics of the state. It's very similar to Maryland in some ways. Much like Baltimore and PG County control MD, two cities control the state. You have Milwaukee; which is Obama 100%. It's a pro-union city and the GOP hardly has a presence there. They hated Scott Walker. Madison is even more blue. It's a college town and the states capital.
Suppose Ryan improves his approval numbers there. I still don't think it's enough to overcome the influence of those two hyper-partisan areas of the state.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
NCRAVEN
Do you think it's possible... or even likely that Romney/Ryan can inform them of this to a point that the narrative changes?
Possible? Yes.
Likely? Jury is out, IMO. The fastest way to change that message is the media. I don't see the MSM helping anytime soon. I'd like to see Ryan hold some old fashioned town hall style meetings with seniors and take a ton of questions from them. That way you don't need the media. Reagan was the master of this. He bypassed the media frequently.
Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonRaven
Possible? Yes.
Likely? Jury is out, IMO. The fastest way to change that message is the media. I don't see the MSM helping anytime soon. I'd like to see Ryan hold some old fashioned town hall style meetings with seniors and take a ton of questions from them. That way you don't need the media. Reagan was the master of this. He bypassed the media frequently.
My thoughts EXACTLY. Maybe at the villages.. where you're sure to get nothing but seniors.
Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent
Quote:
Originally Posted by
NCRAVEN
My thoughts EXACTLY. Maybe at the villages.. where you're sure to get nothing but seniors.
The Villages, Palm Beach, Ft. Myers, etc ....
Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent
There are always two notable jumps in any cycle.
One after the VP announcement, and one after the convention.
The trick is to sustain them among the attacks, exposures of truth, etc.
Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent
Quote:
Originally Posted by
StingerNLG
And yet with that Scott Walker still won election and the recall. I think there is an opening for Romney to win the state by riding Walker's wave.
Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2
One thing though... Walker won the recall with about 500,000 less people voting then voted in the 08 election.
Who knows what would have happened had the same turn out shown up.
Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonRaven
As for Florida and the seniors, I don't doubt what you say. I agree with what Obamacare and the Ryan Plan means to to seniors. My point is that the narrative is already written. You're arguing what the plan says and means. I am arguing that it does not mater. That it's already in their heads that Ryan is the dude that will walk then into the grave. And you can thank the AARP for that. They have been lying to their members for decades and they lap it up.
So they won't watch the debates? I'll take Ryan against SlowJoe any day of the week. He can convey the message that needs to be told.