The Ravens are 99+% certain of going to the playoffs

Speaking of Cinci, it took the Cow Girls to the last second to win the game. They had them on
the ropes.

We don't do that well in Cinci so nothing is a sure thing at this point.

If you "limp" into the playoffs you don't deserve to be there, and before any idiot say's anything abut the Giants they we're on a hot streak and WON to get into the playoff's, same with the Stoolers the year they won from the WC. Noone has limped in on a 6 game losing streak and won shit in the playoffs. I'd rather they not even make it and don't waste anyone's time and get a better draft pick.

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Originally Posted by lobachevsky

With Cincy & Pitts both losing today, the Ravens are one very-low-probability scenario away from clinching a postseason berth.

Presume the Ravens lose the rest of their regular season games. They limp in at 9-7, 4-2 AFCN, 8-4 AFC, 8-6 in common games with PGH.

The only other team not leading its division with less than 6 losses is the Colts. Presume they get the first wild card at 10-6 or better.

There are 3 other AFC teams currently with 7 losses or less: NYJ, CIN, PGH.

BAL would get the 2nd WC over NYJ on the strength of AFC record, since there's no head-to-head & the Jests have 5 losses in the conference.

CIN plays PGH in Week 16. If PGH wins, CIN finishes 9-7 at best, 2-4 AFCN. If PGH finishes 10-6, it wins the AFCN outright; if PGH finishes at 9-7, then head-to-head results vs the other 2 teams gives PGH the AFCN (PGH 3-1, BAL 2-2, CIN 1-3), BAL eliminates CIN for the wild card based on overall head to head or on divisional record, then eliminates NYJ if necessary as above.

If CIN wins out (beats @PHA, @PGH & then BAL) it wins the AFCN at 10-6. Then PGH finishes 9-7 at best, 4-2 AFCN, 8-6 in common games with BAL (both went 1-1 in uncommon games), 5-7 AFC, and BAL eliminates PGH based on better conference record & eliminates NYJ if necessary as above.

If CIN loses @PHA but then wins out to finish 9-7, then BAL wins the AFCN if PGH loses again (@DAL or CLE) based on better division record (4-2 vs 3-3). If PGH also finishes 9-7, then head-to-head is a wash in the 3-way trainwreck (all teams at 2-2) and BAL again wins the AFCN, this time on better division record (4-2 vs 3-3 for the others).

In fact there is precisely one way in which the Ravens can now be eliminated from the postseason:

1. IND finishes no worse than 10-6;
2. CIN & PGH both win in Week 15 and Week 17; and
3. CIN@PGH (Week 16) ends in a tie.

In this case both CIN & PGH finish 9-6-1, one wins the AFCN & the other gets the second WC.

So on the first weekend in January it is almost certain that the Ravens will host the Colts as the #4 seed, or travel to Denver or Foxboro as the #6 seed.

Whether you consider that a good or bad thing after the last 2 weeks probably depends on your capacity for generating irrational optimism &/or absorbing bitter heartbreak...

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Pitt vs Cinci ending in a tie is the only way we get eliminated? LMAO. The Ravens are the luckiest fuckers in the world. The rest of that scenario is plausible, even likely but #3 is just not going to happen.

Seriously unlikely that Houston craps the bed against the colts twice and if that happens, i find it even more unlikely the Ravens lose out at the same time.

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Originally Posted by Corey

Pitt vs Cinci ending in a tie is the only way we get eliminated? LMAO. The Ravens are the luckiest fuckers in the world. The rest of that scenario is plausible, even likely but #3 is just not going to happen.

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Lucky? We won games.

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Originally Posted by Corey

Pitt vs Cinci ending in a tie is the only way we get eliminated? LMAO. The Ravens are the luckiest fuckers in the world. The rest of that scenario is plausible, even likely but #3 is just not going to happen.

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um they beat pitt and cinci. that's not luck.

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Originally Posted by Ravenalytics

Lucky? We won games.

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Originally Posted by Paintballguy

um they beat pitt and cinci. that's not luck.

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They can continue to botch game after game and still make the playoffs, that's luck.

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Originally Posted by Corey

Pitt vs Cinci ending in a tie is the only way we get eliminated? LMAO. The Ravens are the luckiest fuckers in the world. The rest of that scenario is plausible, even likely but #3 is just not going to happen.

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Yeah, no shit :rolling:-- I got to wondering just what it would take to send this team home before New Year's & started looking at the standings & the playoff tiebreakers & the closer I looked the more I wondered why the hell they hadn't already clinched an appearance--& then it hit me...

I'd estimate the chances are about 2% of the #2 seed (most likely by winning out with NE losing at least once), 8% of the #3 seed (beat DEN but NE wins as many of the rest), 40% of the #4 seed, 5% of the #5 seed (requires Indy to lose the remainder), 44.99% of the #6 seed, and 0.01% home for New Year's. But that's just me...

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Originally Posted by Ravenboy2003

The only saving grace is that we should have some guys healthy by the WC weekend and for some oddball reason the Harbaugh Ravens play great in week 1 of the playoffs. (4-0, I believe)

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we shit the bed vs the texans last year we almost lost to their 3rd string qb, the only reason we won is on our team now, JJ

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Originally Posted by Boulderraven

and also a 99.99% chance of being elimated in the playoffs as well. I hope it doesnt sell out a home game WC game, to show a statement. I wouldnt be shelling out $360 dollars this year. This team isnt worth my money. The ONLY reason, I might consider going is that it could be Ray's last game, that is THE ONLY REASON. Getting rid of my PSL's section 152 because I think they will go down in value. I go to half the games and my kids the other half. 2 seats section 152. Hit me up for offer, going rate is 30-35K for both seats.

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All this time I thought you had turned in your fancard months ago...:rolling:

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Originally Posted by lobachevsky

With Cincy & Pitts both losing today, the Ravens are one very-low-probability scenario away from clinching a postseason berth.

Presume the Ravens lose the rest of their regular season games. They limp in at 9-7, 4-2 AFCN, 8-4 AFC, 8-6 in common games with PGH.

The only other team not leading its division with less than 6 losses is the Colts. Presume they get the first wild card at 10-6 or better.

There are 3 other AFC teams currently with 7 losses or less: NYJ, CIN, PGH.

BAL would get the 2nd WC over NYJ on the strength of AFC record, since there's no head-to-head & the Jests have 5 losses in the conference.

CIN plays PGH in Week 16. If PGH wins, CIN finishes 9-7 at best, 2-4 AFCN. If PGH finishes 10-6, it wins the AFCN outright; if PGH finishes at 9-7, then head-to-head results vs the other 2 teams gives PGH the AFCN (PGH 3-1, BAL 2-2, CIN 1-3), BAL eliminates CIN for the wild card based on overall head to head or on divisional record, then eliminates NYJ if necessary as above.

If CIN wins out (beats @PHA, @PGH & then BAL) it wins the AFCN at 10-6. Then PGH finishes 9-7 at best, 4-2 AFCN, 8-6 in common games with BAL (both went 1-1 in uncommon games), 5-7 AFC, and BAL eliminates PGH based on better conference record & eliminates NYJ if necessary as above.

If CIN loses @PHA but then wins out to finish 9-7, then BAL wins the AFCN if PGH loses again (@DAL or CLE) based on better division record (4-2 vs 3-3). If PGH also finishes 9-7, then head-to-head is a wash in the 3-way trainwreck (all teams at 2-2) and BAL again wins the AFCN, this time on better division record (4-2 vs 3-3 for the others).

In fact there is precisely one way in which the Ravens can now be eliminated from the postseason:

1. IND finishes no worse than 10-6;
2. CIN & PGH both win in Week 15 and Week 17; and
3. CIN@PGH (Week 16) ends in a tie.

In this case both CIN & PGH finish 9-6-1, one wins the AFCN & the other gets the second WC.

So on the first weekend in January it is almost certain that the Ravens will host the Colts as the #4 seed, or travel to Denver or Foxboro as the #6 seed.

Whether you consider that a good or bad thing after the last 2 weeks probably depends on your capacity for generating irrational optimism &/or absorbing bitter heartbreak...

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If all three teams (Ravens, steelers, bengals) go 9-7, we win the division. Right now, the Ravens are 4-1 in the division, while the steelers are 2-2. Even if we both go 4-2 in the divison, the steelers have more conference losses. The Bengals have 3 division losses, so they lose the tie-breaker.

Today's loss is a lot more palatable with the steelers & bengals both losing. It guaranteed us no lower than 2nd in the AFC North.

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Originally Posted by pslholder96

All this time I thought you had turned in your fancard months ago...:rolling:

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I have. Just go to half the games, my kids the other half. PSL is valuable but can see it going down in price as the Ravens decline. Not a NFL football fan as much, because of many things Rule changes, officiating getting worse. I enjoy the Orioles and baseball more, game is more on the up and up and the Orioles have a bright future. May use money from selling PSL's to buy Oriole Season tickets. I critique the Ravens win or lose, not a well coached team. Nothing anybody can say will change that.