According to Billick, the 2 teams most likely to make it to the Superbowl...

...Based on the 10 most important statistical categories (and then averaging them all out):

Consisting of:

-turnover differential
-rushing offense
-passing offense
-3rd down conversions
-red zone efficiency (offense and defense)
-Explosive plays (not us)
-passing defense
-rushing defense
-3rd down defense

The Baltimore Ravens and the New Orleans Saints

Article and chart here:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d...module=HP11_cp

This was a pretty good article. I still have a spot for Billick. Also, he was on NFL Total Access talking about this. You can just tell he is such a Baltimore homer. I like that he still views Baltimore the way he does. No ill will and you can just tell that he still cares a lot about the Ravens.

That's a great article; I love that kinda stuff

There is much that Jamison Hensley could learn from Brian Billick. If he were to merely consider his own eye test, I suspect these are the two teams that Billick would have felt the most passion for. However, he knew that he would be deemed a homer for choosing Baltimore. So, he utilized statistical measures and stressed their importance first. Then, he went on to declare those two teams.

Hensley is just so darn afraid to be called a homer, he goes out of his way to not be called one.

Now THAT is how you write an article.

Maybe the hacks at the Sun can take note.

You see it actually took more than 5 minutes to type up and involved that stuff you all hate.....RESEARCH. TIME. EFFORT.

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Originally Posted by 52decleetzu

Now THAT is how you write an article.

Maybe the hacks at the Sun can take note.

You see it actually took more than 5 minutes to type up and involved that stuff you all hate.....RESEARCH. TIME. EFFORT.

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Hope your not directing this to preston..Preston has typed more then Billick ever has. Billick could never fill the shoes of Preston, his feet are too small. Don't get me started on the donut count. Nice to hear an analyst with sound material to back up his statement. Ravens can get to the SB and will with solid football playing. But preston will get there too, only if the Ravens go. Still Wacco for Flacco!

The NFLN did a piece on Passer Rating Differential being one of the key statistics in determining Super Bowl teams.

If we keep a similar philosophy as the last couple games we should succeed in that. Flacco is best with 25-30 attempts. Rice needs to touch the ball 30 times. 25 carries 5 receptions.

Great article. Billick still is the smartest person in the room. You can tell he still loves the Ravens, yet used stats to back up his "homer" pick.

The glaring problem with merely totaling everyone's league rank is that it ignores the stats themselves. The distances between each rank are not the same. That said, in the text of the article he makes great points, even if his 'calculation' is fairly arbitrary.

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Originally Posted by Haloti92

The glaring problem with merely totaling everyone's league rank is that it ignores the stats themselves. The distances between each rank are not the same. That said, in the text of the article he makes great points, even if his 'calculation' is fairly arbitrary.

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I think Billick kind of acknowledges this with his statement:

Quote:

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these rankings are calculated using baseline statistics that might determine the probability of success

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Yeah, that sounded like a general hedge about using statistics (not sure what he means by baseline). I am more concerned with the totaling of rankings.

For example the Ravens are tied for 11th in turnover diff (with Chicago at +2). The Saints are tied for 19th (with the Jets and Minny at -3). I am not sure why Billick listed them at 21 but that is beside my point, let's use NO at 21st as Billick says, for the sake of argument. So when summing the rankings, we gain 10 Billick points for having 5 better turnover difference than NO (should be 8 pts, but again who cares). But the 49ers are ranked #1 in turnover diff with +28! So they gain 10 points on us in Billick points (same as we gain on NO) except they have 26 better in turnover difference than us.

In short, the distances between these rankings are not uniform. For some (most) of the yardage ones it is a few yards per game difference between several rankings, while at the extremes it is much more difference. And the turnover diff is the easiest to show what I mean.

If Cohwer can lose his job and be such an incredible homer for the Steelers, then why can't Billick? I think the point here is that these are both class franchises, with classy FOs and owners (not an accident they are winning franchises). I am sure Cohwer or Billick were never disrespected by their respective teams.